2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

Spacecoast · #361 Postby **Spacecoast** » Tue May 17, 2022 11:19 am

FSU drops NAV Genesis possibility.
Yesterday's NAV showed 23% probability of genesis just south of Yucatan.

0z ECMF only has a few members escaping into GOM. Median ensemble drops development after 96 hrs.

skyline385 · #362 Postby **skyline385** » Tue May 17, 2022 11:29 am

12Z going to be a nasty one, 977mb near Yucatan. GFS, you aren't helping yourself with these runs lol

Fancy1001 · #363 Postby **Fancy1001** » Tue May 17, 2022 11:38 am

skyline385 wrote:12Z going to be a nasty one, 977mb near Yucatan. GFS, you aren't helping yourself with these runs lol

That’s 997, But it does look like this one might not get slammed into the Yucatán

Fancy1001 · #364 Postby **Fancy1001** » Tue May 17, 2022 11:42 am

Is it just me, or is the 12z gfs run stuck at 156

skyline385 · #365 Postby **skyline385** » Tue May 17, 2022 11:43 am

Fancy1001 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:12Z going to be a nasty one, 977mb near Yucatan. GFS, you aren't helping yourself with these runs lol

That’s 997, But it does look like this one might not get slammed into the Yucatán

It's stuck on TT, it's currently 971mb in the Gulf on weathermodels

Fancy1001 · #366 Postby **Fancy1001** » Tue May 17, 2022 11:45 am

skyline385 wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:12Z going to be a nasty one, 977mb near Yucatan. GFS, you aren't helping yourself with these runs lol

That’s 997, But it does look like this one might not get slammed into the Yucatán

It's stuck on TT, it's currently 971mb in the Gulf on weathermodels

Oh ok, thanks.

BobHarlem · #367 Postby **BobHarlem** » Tue May 17, 2022 11:47 am

Fancy1001 wrote:Is it just me, or is the 12z gfs run stuck at 156

Just on Tropical Tidbits, it's showing a cat 2/968mb landfall near Destin @ 12Z on 5/28.

#368 Postby **wxman57** » Tue May 17, 2022 11:48 am

Fancy1001 wrote:Is it just me, or is the 12z gfs run stuck at 156

Levi's page is stuck at 156hrs. Pivotal Weather site has the big GFS modelcane hitting the FL Panhandle with a 968mb pressure on Saturday, May 28th. Not believable.

skyline385 · #369 Postby **skyline385** » Tue May 17, 2022 11:50 am

Michael vibes on the 12Z run

#370 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 17, 2022 12:04 pm

Did not moved up on the time.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1526608706301050880

kevin · #371 Postby **kevin** » Tue May 17, 2022 12:15 pm

12z GFS just before landfall:

#372 Postby **wxman57** » Tue May 17, 2022 12:39 pm

Note that the GFS blasts the hurricane through a wall of strong wind shear. Completely unrealistic. Rain for Central America. The end.

skyline385 · #373 Postby **skyline385** » Tue May 17, 2022 12:50 pm

Most of the ensemble members are still heading towards peninsular Florida, the operational model is on its own here

#374 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue May 17, 2022 12:59 pm

Here is what local met Jeff Lindner had to say this morning:

Tropics:
There has been a bunch of social media posts recently showing a tropical system on the GFS model in the western Caribbean Sea and/or Gulf of Mexico for next week. The GFS is notorious for showing development this time of year in this region as tropical waves/moisture interact with a developing central American gyre. Most models do show a large area of unsettled weather extending from the western Caribbean Sea into the Bay of Campeche from this weekend into next week. If and when any sort of defined surface circulation may develop and where remains highly uncertain due to land interaction with central America and the large sprawling nature of the central American gyre. If anything were to actually develop it would be slow.

skyline385 · #375 Postby **skyline385** » Tue May 17, 2022 1:24 pm

https://twitter.com/woodberrywx/status/1526623396292964355

InfernoFlameCat · #376 Postby **InfernoFlameCat** » Tue May 17, 2022 1:31 pm

The Gfs really wants this to happen. I could see this scenario in October, but not May. This looks like Zeta in some aspects. Like actually a lot of aspects. Except the one big killer is the climatology. It’s May. I would like to see a hurricane come through my area. I can get behind the powerful storm with shear enhancing the outflow of the storm instead of hurting it. But I don’t see how the gfs forms it. It just spins it up off Honduras and kills the epac vorticity. The reason why this reminds me of zeta is because of the strengthening in spite of shear, as well as the front picking the system up and racing it through the southeast like a slingshot.

DorkyMcDorkface · #377 Postby **DorkyMcDorkface** » Tue May 17, 2022 1:39 pm

After forming a TS in the Bay of Campeche yesterday, today's 12z Euro run appears to have dropped that idea. GFS continues to stand on its own unless the EPS suite shows something more significant.

#378 Postby **wxman57** » Tue May 17, 2022 1:51 pm

EC's weak low in the Gulf of Tehuantepec looks much more likely.

#379 Postby **wxman57** » Tue May 17, 2022 3:07 pm

Comparison of GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, & ICON. Which one is not like the others? GFS blasts the hurricane north into a wall of shear and strengthens it.

hurricane2025 · #380 Postby **hurricane2025** » Tue May 17, 2022 5:27 pm

Gfs has caved