Texas Spring 2022
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
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Reference #102.6460dc17.1653066651.aa8a26d
Just ridiculous that the NWS forecast pages are broken so often. Can't find a way to get my local forecast, 3rd time this week. If I have to keep going to private sites for basic like a forecast, might as well privatize the whole incompetent agency.
Reference #102.6460dc17.1653066651.aa8a26d
Just ridiculous that the NWS forecast pages are broken so often. Can't find a way to get my local forecast, 3rd time this week. If I have to keep going to private sites for basic like a forecast, might as well privatize the whole incompetent agency.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
dpep4 wrote:An error occurred while processing your request.
Reference #102.6460dc17.1653066651.aa8a26d
Just ridiculous that the NWS forecast pages are broken so often. Can't find a way to get my local forecast, 3rd time this week. If I have to keep going to private sites for basic like a forecast, might as well privatize the whole incompetent agency.
Forecasters are good, being in IT I don't want to speak bad about them but the blame for that is on them.
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Cold front is surging through Wichita Falls. Curious the wetter models associated with it has storms firing quickly along the line while the dry ones don't. Currently it's mostly a dry passage up there.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
Ntxw wrote:Cold front is surging through Wichita Falls. Curious the wetter models associated with it has storms firing quickly along the line while the dry ones don't. Currently it's mostly a dry passage up there.
So ahead of schedule?
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Spring 2022
HockeyTx82 wrote:Ntxw wrote:Cold front is surging through Wichita Falls. Curious the wetter models associated with it has storms firing quickly along the line while the dry ones don't. Currently it's mostly a dry passage up there.
So ahead of schedule?
That's what I was thinking. I thought the main push of cooler air was tomorrow afternoon which is why low 90s are forecasted for Saturday. Not complaining, earlier the better.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
Might that mean DFW gets little rain but places east get it again? HRRR doesn't even generate any storms looking at QPF.
Last edited by rwfromkansas on Fri May 20, 2022 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
dpep4 wrote:An error occurred while processing your request.
Reference #102.6460dc17.1653066651.aa8a26d
Just ridiculous that the NWS forecast pages are broken so often. Can't find a way to get my local forecast, 3rd time this week. If I have to keep going to private sites for basic like a forecast, might as well privatize the whole incompetent agency.
The errors sometimes happens to me, it could be they they are trying to update the forecasts and this happens.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- captainbarbossa19
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
Edwards Limestone wrote:Euro seems to be trending the wrong direction for the Hill Country...disappointing.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2022052000/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_56.png
And now it's trending wetter for y'all!!
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
gpsnowman wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:Ntxw wrote:Cold front is surging through Wichita Falls. Curious the wetter models associated with it has storms firing quickly along the line while the dry ones don't. Currently it's mostly a dry passage up there.
So ahead of schedule?
That's what I was thinking. I thought the main push of cooler air was tomorrow afternoon which is why low 90s are forecasted for Saturday. Not complaining, earlier the better.
A little bit, dependent on precipitation. It's not all THAT much colder behind it but a wind shift and a touch cooler, could still reach 90s if dry passage. But if it rains, then it will be 70s. The stronger push of cool air is tomorrow.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Edwards Limestone wrote:Euro seems to be trending the wrong direction for the Hill Country...disappointing.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2022052000/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_56.png
And now it's trending wetter for y'all!!
So is the WPC! They’re calling for 3-5 inches of rain for DFW and 2-3 for my area!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
Ntxw wrote:gpsnowman wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:
So ahead of schedule?
That's what I was thinking. I thought the main push of cooler air was tomorrow afternoon which is why low 90s are forecasted for Saturday. Not complaining, earlier the better.
A little bit, dependent on precipitation. It's not all THAT much colder behind it but a wind shift and a touch cooler, could still reach 90s if dry passage. But if it rains, then it will be 70s. The stronger push of cool air is tomorrow.
I think it's showing up on NWS radar. Thin line just north and west on Denton..... maybe?
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
- captainbarbossa19
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
If something gets going along the line soon, it could be really nasty. CAPE is very high.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Edwards Limestone wrote:Euro seems to be trending the wrong direction for the Hill Country...disappointing.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2022052000/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_56.png
And now it's trending wetter for y'all!!
Yep, 12z Euro trended slower with the trough next week which means a longer period of enhanced rain chances. I think we'll likely see several waves of showers and thunderstorms track eastward across the state Monday through Wednesday of next week. That is in addition to the scattered showers and thunderstorms that should develop along the cold front this weekend. Hopefully all of us can get some much needed rainfall over the next week! Bring it on!
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
captainbarbossa19 wrote:If something gets going along the line soon, it could be really nasty. CAPE is very high.
Looks like a summer high CAPE situation from the spc maps. Tornado/hail conditions and supercells are low, not much like a spring air mass despite 4-5k j/kg. High straight-line winds and small hail but right now the radar is dry. HRRR is verifying better in real time than the 3km NAM.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
It seems to me that line is not the front after all checking out other surface analysis maps. Maybe just some little boundary.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
rwfromkansas wrote:It seems to me that line is not the front after all checking out other surface analysis maps. Maybe just some little boundary.
It's the front, just heavily moderating daytime heating and hot ahead of it. Observations are northerly component behind it. The stronger cool push will come with height rises tomorrow. Today the front needed the help from rain but so far not working out.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
18z 3K NAM looks pretty good with front placement. It doesnt fire storms for another hour or two.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
bubba hotep wrote:18z 3K NAM looks pretty good with front placement. It doesnt fire storms for another hour or two.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0845.html
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Re: Texas Spring 2022
If the 18z 3k NAM is going to verify then we will need to see pretty rapid storm development over the next 30-45 min.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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