2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
More discussion about the ssta's in MDR and the NAO.
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1529261587319640065
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1529262060315594752
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1529264814060617729
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1529261587319640065
https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1529262060315594752
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1529264814060617729
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
This is a look that means trouble.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
SFLcane wrote:This is a look that means trouble.
https://i.postimg.cc/CLYTLfTp/ct5km-ssta-v3-1-nwel-current.png
https://i.postimg.cc/HksqbDkS/ct5km-ssta-v3-1-tropics-current.png
MDR getting torched now with those weak trades..
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Ok, now this is concerning. Look at Richard’s tweet.
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1529591448907173892
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1529591448907173892
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
I just have that feeling it’s going to be a long season for Florida and the Gulf. Buckle up guys get your sleep now.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Throughout May, MDR SSTAs have been a good 0.1 C above those of May 2021 but a good 0.13 C below those of May 2020. Given this, one might expect 2022 to have an ACE around 162 (average of 2020 and 2021 ACE). However, I expect 2022 to be closer to 2020 than 2021 in terms of activity because it was not the MDR that killed activity in 2021 (the MDR was more than warm enough by ASO); it was the Atlantic Nino. Given that 2022 is not expected to have an Atlantic Nino, we could see a season close to 2020 in terms of ACE (possibly 170 to 180 ACE) and one with >20 storms, especially with the background state similar to 2020.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
AlphaToOmega wrote:Throughout May, MDR SSTAs have been a good 0.1 C above those of May 2021 but a good 0.13 C below those of May 2020. Given this, one might expect 2022 to have an ACE around 162 (average of 2020 and 2021 ACE). However, I expect 2022 to be closer to 2020 than 2021 in terms of activity because it was not the MDR that killed activity in 2021 (the MDR was more than warm enough by ASO); it was the Atlantic Nino. Given that 2022 is not expected to have an Atlantic Nino, we could see a season close to 2020 in terms of ACE (possibly 170 to 180 ACE) and one with >20 storms, especially with the background state similar to 2020.
A couple of things I'd like to point out here: the background state is actually somewhat different from 2020, not because of the fact that we're going to almost certainly be in La Nina conditions by ASO but because this La Nina is already firmly in place and is also a third year event (in 2020, we had +0.5 C Nino 3,4 conditions in the spring, which then became a La Nina later into late summer/early fall). Additionally, I am not necessarily sure if MDR anomaly warmth in May specifically has a strictly linear correlation with total ACE (in other words, there are many more variables that are at play here that do not necessarily make the assumption that May MDR warmth is precisely and in a predictable manner associated with total ACE true). Now while I do expect 20 or more NSs with many shorties being a possible outcome, I still think it is a bit too early to tell if this year would be a west focused year like 2005 or 2020 or if it would be more along the lines of 2004, 2010, or 2017 with more intense MDR activity. After all, many of these years shared an anomalously warm May MDR in common (with 2004 actually being on the cooler side of things), so MDR warmth is not everything.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
SFLcane wrote:Ok, now this is concerning. Look at Richard’s tweet.
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1529591448907173892?s=21&t=2_4FWK7PcCj-R4yIfu6eeA
I wouldn't worry too much about it, his method verifies poorly for May forecasts
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1 ... 7234475009
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
skyline385 wrote:SFLcane wrote:Ok, now this is concerning. Look at Richard’s tweet.
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1529591448907173892?s=21&t=2_4FWK7PcCj-R4yIfu6eeA
I wouldn't worry too much about it, his method verifies poorly for May forecasts
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1 ... 7234475009
Actually the 2020,2017 verified fairly well.
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- skyline385
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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
SFLcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:SFLcane wrote:Ok, now this is concerning. Look at Richard’s tweet.
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1529591448907173892?s=21&t=2_4FWK7PcCj-R4yIfu6eeA
I wouldn't worry too much about it, his method verifies poorly for May forecasts
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1 ... 7234475009
Actually the 2020,2017 verified fairly well.
Have to disagree on that one:
2017 - Most of the Gulf including CA is blue and dark blue which is where most of the storms ended up. The paths of Harvery, Irma (except FL) and Maria are also completely blue.
2020 - LA and CA (especially Nicaragua) which saw the most activity are blue and dark blue (except for that one small patch on Yucatan).
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Something I want to point out is that the ENSO state is not a static thing. It is always trending cooler or warmer. You can have El Nino and if it is trending cooler throughout the season you will be more favorable for activity. It is important, even though it is a La Nina state, what direction will the trend be ASO. Will it be trending warmer or cooler. That makes a difference.
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Meanwhile, SSTAs are continuing to rise in the Atlantic MDR; almost +0.3c for CRW and +0.54c for OISST. Considerable compared to a week or so ago.
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
I thought there was SAL?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Strange that the entire Gulf and Caribbean has been cooling.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
aspen wrote:
Strange that the entire Gulf and Caribbean has been cooling.
That was from the strong easterly surge along with the dust that came through during the past few days along with cloud and rains over the northern GOM.
SSTs starting to warm already and expected to warm with near average to below average easterly trade winds across the Caribbean and parts of the Tropical Atlantic over the next few days.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Both the EPS and GEFS show shear dropping to average if not well below average across the western Atlantic Basin over the next couple of weeks.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
NDG wrote:Both the EPS and GEFS show shear dropping to average if not well below average across the western Atlantic Basin over the next couple of weeks.
https://i.imgur.com/aZqESoT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/KRXdm4y.gif
I wouldn't trust ensemble shear plots that much into the future, they all always converge towards low shear once you get that far ahead just because of how ensembles work.
Here's an example between model runs 6 days apart
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
skyline385 wrote:NDG wrote:Both the EPS and GEFS show shear dropping to average if not well below average across the western Atlantic Basin over the next couple of weeks.
https://i.imgur.com/aZqESoT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/KRXdm4y.gif
I wouldn't trust ensemble shear plots that much into the future, they all always converge towards low shear once you get that far ahead just because of how ensembles work.
Here's an example between model runs 6 days apart
https://i.imgur.com/HUhCN1B.png
Good point, lets leave it then at the 6-10 day range, which did fairly well.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
I’m starting to think this season is going to have quite a late start, at least compared to 2015-21. There’s no guarantee that the tropical mess left behind by Agatha will be able to consolidate into a name-worthy system, and the next Kelvin Wave won’t arrive until later in the month. Maybe 2022 will follow 2004 and 2010, where Alex forms several weeks after the start of the season but ends up as a noteworthy hurricane.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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