ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

I'm surprised the NHC hasn't started PTC advisories yet, since squalls with possible TS winds may reach the keys tomorrow afternoon. Should be a TS watch out (or a warning).

Based on the 8am TWO, this will probably get labeled as PTC-1 sometime today. They said advisories might be needed later in the day, so they’ll most likely start PTC advisories at 5pm instead of 11am.

Also, they may wait for the recon data this afternoon.

Recon doesn't matter much if we're talking a PTC and not a TD as the criterion for issuing PTC advisories. I don't expect recon to find anything but a very weak LLC that won't qualify as a depression today. However, the NHC criteria for issuing a PTC advisory is a high chance of development within 48 hours and a possible land threat within 48 hours. Both exist now.

[AdamFirst]

If the center goes north of South Florida that means more rain for South Florida. Already waterlogged communities in the southern peninsula are about to get plenty more, starting tomorrow.

Never discount any tropical event before it gets here. I have a feeling this will be a big nuisance come Saturday.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2022060212, , BEST, 0, 210N, 871W, 30, 1003, DB

[Michele B]

Some keep talking about S and E of FL as if’s a final call yet the cherry colored genesis area depicted by the NHC keeps moving that southern boundary North. lol love S2K

Check the posters location when possible especially when a hurricane is on approach.

I think most people dont mind getting hit by this, its just a sheared system bringing in rain. I would be very surprised if we get any sustained TS winds inland.

You are correct. We wouldn't mind....as long as it's only a rain event (and lower end) TS winds.

[Ian2401]

Window for intensification is starting to close. Shear likely to pick up again tonight into tomorrow.

Not sure there ever was a “window for intensification” - shear was always gonna keep the storm at low end TS/TD status. The storm will however benefit from finally decoupling from the Yucatan later today - which is where I expect the storm to be finally designated

[toad strangler]

Window for intensification is starting to close. Shear likely to pick up again tonight into tomorrow.

Not sure there ever was a “window for intensification” - shear was always gonna keep the storm at low end TS/TD status. The storm will however benefit from finally decoupling from the Yucatan later today - which is where I expect the storm to be finally designated

NHC has been saying that despite forecasted and expected strong upper level winds (shear) they expect a TD or a TS.

[jinftl]

Since the NHC is suggesting possible tropical storm watches/warnings later today, thinking those would be issued for parts of Cuba and south of Lake Okeechobee on both the southwest and southeast FL coast plus the Keys. In an abundance of caution.

[toad strangler]

Snippet from the latest NWS Melbourne disco ... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MLB&issuedby=MLB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Friday-Sunday...Uncertainty remains rather high in the mid term
with guidance persistently disagreeing on what`s going to happen
with an area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula. The
aforementioned area of low pressure, associated with the remnants
of Hurricane Agatha is expected to interact with an upper level
trough located off the east coast of Florida over the next few
days.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor this
area with a high chance for tropical development forecast within
48hrs. Many factors appear to be influencing the development of
the tropical system which would explain the higher uncertainty in
guidance. Furthermore, the track of the feature will be largely
dependent on how fast high pressure builds from the northwest, as
it`s expected to drop over the western Gulf of Mexico sometime
this weekend. The GFS remains the fastest and most southern
solution with the high quickly dropping into the GOM, in addition
to, a weaker subtropical ridge. Additionally, the ECMWF and NAM
are slower and farther north with the ECMWF remaining the most
consistent and what appears to be the most likely scenario. A
stronger system would most likely lead to a farther northwestern
track, which is what the ECMWF has been hinting at for quite some
time with the disturbance tracking from southwestern Florida and
eventually reaching just south of Cape Canaveral before moving
offshore by the beginning of next week.

Regardless of the exact path that the storm system takes, rain
chances will begin to gradually increase on Friday from the south-
southwest and spread northward into the weekend with rainbands
expected to pivot over central Florida and the associated local
Atlantic waters through the weekend. High POPs will exists each
day through the weekend with numerous to widespread showers and
lightning storms. While it is too early to determine the exact
impacts from this system, gusty winds, heavy rainfall, flooding,
and frequent lightning strikes appear increasingly likely across
east- central Florida this weekend with the greatest chance for
heavy rainfall on Saturday. Expect highs generally around the low
to mid 80s across the Treasure Coast and the mid 80s to low 90s
elsewhere. Low temperatures are forecast to reach the low-to-mid
70s.

[jinftl]

NWS Miami forecasting lots of rain and wind gusts near tropical storm force for locations near the coast.

Friday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 75. Windy, with a southeast wind 22 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.


Saturday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 5pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 82. Windy, with a south wind 24 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.


Saturday Night
Showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 11pm and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Low around 77. Windy, with a southwest wind 22 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[SFLcane]

Snippet from the latest NWS Melbourne disco ... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MLB&issuedby=MLB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Friday-Sunday...Uncertainty remains rather high in the mid term
with guidance persistently disagreeing on what`s going to happen
with an area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula. The
aforementioned area of low pressure, associated with the remnants
of Hurricane Agatha is expected to interact with an upper level
trough located off the east coast of Florida over the next few
days.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor this
area with a high chance for tropical development forecast within
48hrs. Many factors appear to be influencing the development of
the tropical system which would explain the higher uncertainty in
guidance. Furthermore, the track of the feature will be largely
dependent on how fast high pressure builds from the northwest, as
it`s expected to drop over the western Gulf of Mexico sometime
this weekend. The GFS remains the fastest and most southern
solution with the high quickly dropping into the GOM, in addition
to, a weaker subtropical ridge. Additionally, the ECMWF and NAM
are slower and farther north with the ECMWF remaining the most
consistent and what appears to be the most likely scenario. A
stronger system would most likely lead to a farther northwestern
track, which is what the ECMWF has been hinting at for quite some
time with the disturbance tracking from southwestern Florida and
eventually reaching just south of Cape Canaveral before moving
offshore by the beginning of next week.

Regardless of the exact path that the storm system takes, rain
chances will begin to gradually increase on Friday from the south-
southwest and spread northward into the weekend with rainbands
expected to pivot over central Florida and the associated local
Atlantic waters through the weekend. High POPs will exists each
day through the weekend with numerous to widespread showers and
lightning storms. While it is too early to determine the exact
impacts from this system, gusty winds, heavy rainfall, flooding,
and frequent lightning strikes appear increasingly likely across
east- central Florida this weekend with the greatest chance for
heavy rainfall on Saturday. Expect highs generally around the low
to mid 80s across the Treasure Coast and the mid 80s to low 90s
elsewhere. Low temperatures are forecast to reach the low-to-mid
70s.

Good catch! Makes sense

[Sciencerocks]

Probably a upgrade later today

[wxman57]

I think the EC is too far north, given the strong westerly wind shear. GFS looks more reasonable.

[Aric Dunn]

Two lobes/circs exist in the larger gyre. The Low that was over the BOC has swung SE as the Low that developed over the NW carrib late yesterday has moved to the NW.
As the southerly winds coming out of the channel increase and the northern vort moves offshore we will see convection build north of the Yucatan and that vort will deepen while the other dies over land. Track between Tampa and Naples is more likely given the setup.

[kevin]

Convection keeps building on IR:

[AutoPenalti]

Convection keeps building on IR:

https://imgur.com/EXPEgi1

Usually occurs during DMIN so not too surprising.

[cycloneye]

South-Central Florida will get a lot of rain.

[skyline385]

May see a change in those precipitation values if the latest GFS verifies. Lots of moisture getting pushed NE.

[cycloneye]

Recon is a go.

 https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1532350513605402625

[skyline385]

Seeing 40 kts shear still but it's doing surprisingly well at the moment.

[tolakram]

COD floater view https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

SLIDER https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=830.3506469726562&y=980.6356048583984&z=1&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6