ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

[cycloneye]

18Z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2022060218, , BEST, 0, 213N, 875W, 30, 1004, LO

[Aric Dunn]

That tower bubbling right on queue as the center is being pulled north.. may very well end up with Alex by the end of this mission.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks at the very least like we have TD#1 on our hands.

[wxman57]

I don't see good evidence of a well-defined LLC in recon. I think NHC will call it PTC One when they start advisories in a couple hours.

[NDG]

It has that look of a developing tropical cyclone.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like it is over land and based on surface obs and recon I'd say it is probably closed. The question is will the nhc upgrade a system over land and without convection within 100 miles.

[NDG]

Looks like it is over land and based on surface obs and recon I'd say it is probably closed. The question is will the nhc upgrade a system over land and without convection within 100 miles.

Convection now near the CoC.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WyattHuber28/status/1532443811502342147

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1532447604658806784

[wxman57]

It's debatable whether it qualifies as a depression yet, but it doesn't really matter. Nothing will change in the forecast. I predict NHC will have winds 35-40 kts when the center reaches FL Saturday afternoon. Those winds will not be associated with the center, however, they'll be in squalls along the east coast of Florida as the center makes landfall.

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located near the Yucatan Peninsula, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

Deep convection starting to pop over the LLC.

[galaxy401]

Looks like it's on its way to becoming a TD. I think we might get a TD or even TS by tonight.

[Sanibel]

Weak, sheared early June storm...

8 inches rain predicted for Miami area Sunday...

[Nimbus]

Deep convection starting to pop over the LLC.

Now that the low level center is over water and the shear has decreased a little should be interesting to watch.
Heavy squalls may move in a little closer to the center before the Florida landfall.

[Ian2401]

Forecast to reach 50mph, although i’m hesitant to believe anyone will actually see sustained winds anywhere near that outside of gusts

[wxman57]

Deep convection starting to pop over the LLC.

Now that the low level center is over water and the shear has decreased a little should be interesting to watch.
Heavy squalls may move in a little closer to the center before the Florida landfall.

Shear increases as it tracks north. Squalls will become even more detached to the east. NHC track looks identical to mine.

[aspen]

If PTC-1/Alex gets lucky and is baroclinically enhanced after crossing Florida, it could be a pretty decent June storm, like Bill last year. Peaked at 50 kt and didn’t look that bad. Bermuda might need to watch out for it next week, though.