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captainbarbossa19 wrote:
What is interesting is that instead of the wave getting weaker in the Caribbean, it is getting stronger.
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/mCesakn.png
Jeez, no wonder why the Euro is optimistic about that particular MDR system...
skyline385 wrote:Pretty bullish 12Z EPS with one member going straight through Florida, also lots of members through PR and DR![]()
https://i.imgur.com/dVRAbzA.png
cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/icIFc6d.gif
InfernoFlameCat wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/icIFc6d.gif
When theGFS or GEFS shows future possible MDR activity, meh. When the Euro does,
aspen wrote:How do the forecast trades around the time that strong wave tries to develop/reaches the Lesser Antilles compare to the trades when Emily ‘05 formed and reached the Caribbean?
Right now I’m expecting something similar to either Bret ‘17 (typical weak early season storm) or Beryl ‘18/Elsa ‘21 (low-end hurricane with a small core that gets ripped apart) at the most, if this even forms.
aspen wrote:How do the forecast trades around the time that strong wave tries to develop/reaches the Lesser Antilles compare to the trades when Emily ‘05 formed and reached the Caribbean?
Right now I’m expecting something similar to either Bret ‘17 (typical weak early season storm) or Beryl ‘18/Elsa ‘21 (low-end hurricane with a small core that gets ripped apart) at the most, if this even forms.
Deshaunrob17 wrote:aspen wrote:How do the forecast trades around the time that strong wave tries to develop/reaches the Lesser Antilles compare to the trades when Emily ‘05 formed and reached the Caribbean?
Right now I’m expecting something similar to either Bret ‘17 (typical weak early season storm) or Beryl ‘18/Elsa ‘21 (low-end hurricane with a small core that gets ripped apart) at the most, if this even forms.
This a really good point. I would love see Emily / Dennis case study .. I know SST was hella warm but what about the rest
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Are these model runs tracking the wave that just came off? That wave looks really robust. It also has a very sharp axis
cycloneye wrote:ScottNAtlanta wrote:Are these model runs tracking the wave that just came off? That wave looks really robust. It also has a very sharp axis
There it is.
https://i.imgur.com/UZsH3vx.gif
Category5Kaiju wrote:cycloneye wrote:ScottNAtlanta wrote:Are these model runs tracking the wave that just came off? That wave looks really robust. It also has a very sharp axis
There it is.
https://i.imgur.com/UZsH3vx.gif
The left wave interests me, just checked and it seems to be under relatively light shear. Are we sure this can’t at least become some weak and brief system? Or is the dust the limiting factor?
NotSparta wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:
The left wave interests me, just checked and it seems to be under relatively light shear. Are we sure this can’t at least become some weak and brief system? Or is the dust the limiting factor?
Looks like it has a date with South America. The right wave is probably more interesting. It should move north and not develop, but the Euro shows a lobe of vorticity breaking off and trying to form in about 10 days. Will it happen? We'll see. GFS doesn't buy it
skyline385 wrote:NotSparta wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:
The left wave interests me, just checked and it seems to be under relatively light shear. Are we sure this can’t at least become some weak and brief system? Or is the dust the limiting factor?
Looks like it has a date with South America. The right wave is probably more interesting. It should move north and not develop, but the Euro shows a lobe of vorticity breaking off and trying to form in about 10 days. Will it happen? We'll see. GFS doesn't buy it
Kinda hilarious how the tables have now turned lol
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