2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1539285043474046977
https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1539286501992894464
https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1539286501992894464
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Surprised no one posted the CMC:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
mr_coogs wrote:12z Euro with a shortie off the coast?
https://imgur.com/YVeI94Q
GFS has it too. Doesn’t quite look tropical, but maybe we could get Bonnie out of that.
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Kingarabian wrote:Surprised no one posted the CMC:
https://i.imgur.com/XMUzABL.gif
Models always seem to love Hispaniola. I wonder if this is going to be another year where many storms track close to it?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Kingarabian wrote:Surprised no one posted the CMC:
https://i.imgur.com/XMUzABL.gif
Looks like an Elsa 2.0 on that run, with the precursor wave emerging off the coast of Africa tomorrow afternoon.
The models showing two waves in late June/early July does remind me a lot of Elsa. IIRC, there was another wave around the same time with a chance to develop, but only Elsa became a TC.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Euro actually showed 3 waves, with the first one being a TC
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
12Z EPS. This is giving me some August vibes
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ojOrxTl.png
12Z EPS. This is giving me some August vibes
Many members take this into the Gulf which at the minimum seems to suggest that models think there could be a weakness for this to be pulled north/northwest. Need to have a storm first though before we really start talking about potential tracks.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
aspen wrote:mr_coogs wrote:12z Euro with a shortie off the coast?
https://imgur.com/YVeI94Q
GFS has it too. Doesn’t quite look tropical, but maybe we could get Bonnie out of that.
Phase diagram has it warm-core, but asymmetrical, pointing towards a sub-tropical storm perhaps?
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
captainbarbossa19 wrote:zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ojOrxTl.png
12Z EPS. This is giving me some August vibes
Many members take this into the Gulf which at the minimum seems to suggest that models think there could be a weakness for this to be pulled north/northwest. Need to have a storm first though before we really start talking about potential tracks.
I think the Euro’s tracks keeping this south of the Greater Antilles and in the Caribbean for its entire life are the more plausible solutions, because so far the Euro’s ridge/HP forecasts have been verifying rather well as opposed to anything the GFS is saying. An Elsa-like track into Hispaniola (CMC) isn’t impossible, but with a strong ridge and fast trades, this wave could develop slower, remain weaker, and not be able to take advantage of any weaknesses in the ridge.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
mr_coogs wrote:aspen wrote:mr_coogs wrote:12z Euro with a shortie off the coast?
https://imgur.com/YVeI94Q
GFS has it too. Doesn’t quite look tropical, but maybe we could get Bonnie out of that.
https://i.imgur.com/FN6Ujg2.png
Phase diagram has it warm-core, but asymmetrical, pointing towards a sub-tropical storm perhaps?
Should be invested soon.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
12z Euro... Hours 111-240...
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Wow, PP has great stuff here.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539342272583680001
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539343417964220421
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539347275314495491
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539353323349938176
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539353323349938176
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539368619305578497
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539342272583680001
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539343417964220421
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539347275314495491
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539353323349938176
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539353323349938176
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539368619305578497
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I’d say something weak just crashing into CA right now would be the most plausible guess imo.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
18z dropped everything lol
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
GFS 18z being GFS 18z
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
GFS and Euro came in with a stronger open Atlantic high this suite. Pushes the first wave into SA. CMC allows it to avoid land with a weaker high and the result is a hurricane in the Caribbean.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The 00z euro ensembles are bullish, IMO too bullish.
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