EPAC: BONNIE - Models
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
0z ICON has a Central Caribbean hurricane at the end of the run moving WNW.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Just saw the 00z run for the GFS. All I'm gonna say is that its convective initialization is not that great. And I am not alone in this thinking.
https://twitter.com/figueroa_ii/status/1540561348454670337
https://twitter.com/FrankCarcaterra/status/1540552690375294978
https://twitter.com/figueroa_ii/status/1540561348454670337
https://twitter.com/FrankCarcaterra/status/1540552690375294978
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
The models took a south shift overnight, but still show development. The CMC and ICON both finally have tracks similar to the GFS and Euro, sticking rather far south (despite developing before the Lesser Antilles) and only gaining some latitude after 70W-75W. The 00z ICON looks very similar to yesterday’s 12z GFS, even though it only goes out to 180 hours.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Below is my interpolation in between the overnight GFS & Euro. They're very close together now up to landfall next Saturday morning in Nicaragua. Even the ensembles have all shifted south, away from the Gulf. Bonnie is looking like "Cesar II".
Excellent analog is Cesar of 1996, which became Douglas in the EPAC:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane ... _track.png
In case you're wondering, a coworker of mine developed an excel spreadsheet years ago that allows me to put in any lat/lon and get a plot on any of about 10 different map scales. It doesn't place the symbols on the map, just dots. I add the symbols manually. I also typed in my predicted max sustained winds to the right of the lat/lon values. Forward speed between points is automatically calculated using the Haversine equation for calculating distances between points on a sphere. Note the 23-25 kt movement in the eastern Caribbean vs. near 15 kts in the SW Caribbean. That's where low-level convergence should really get Bonnie going possibly to a hurricane prior to landfall in Nicaragua.
Excellent analog is Cesar of 1996, which became Douglas in the EPAC:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane ... _track.png
In case you're wondering, a coworker of mine developed an excel spreadsheet years ago that allows me to put in any lat/lon and get a plot on any of about 10 different map scales. It doesn't place the symbols on the map, just dots. I add the symbols manually. I also typed in my predicted max sustained winds to the right of the lat/lon values. Forward speed between points is automatically calculated using the Haversine equation for calculating distances between points on a sphere. Note the 23-25 kt movement in the eastern Caribbean vs. near 15 kts in the SW Caribbean. That's where low-level convergence should really get Bonnie going possibly to a hurricane prior to landfall in Nicaragua.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
First run of HWRF has a cat 2 with track the same as GFS and Euro.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
A solid consensus on the track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
HWRF is in the early development camp along with the CMC and ICON (no surprise there lol). It has a decent initialization and shows convection really flaring tomorrow morning, and a TC sometime midday Monday.
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- skyline385
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
cycloneye wrote:First run of HWRF has a cat 2 with track the same as GFS and Euro.
HWRF has it at Cat 1/2 way out from land
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
12z ICON is weaker and further south, more in line with the GFS/Euro.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Pretty good consensus today that this will run straight into central america. We'll see in about day 4-5 when it get near 70W. Still some time for things to change.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
cycloneye wrote:A solid consensus on the track.
https://i.imgur.com/iCKT441.png
https://i.imgur.com/zblO0Pk.png
Pretty amazing seeing how far out it is.
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Robbielyn McCrary
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
18z GFS shows a very anemic wave for the next day or so, but then convection rapidly blossoms once it reaches 50W.
Update: then it fades away and the wave is an absolute mess once it reaches the Lesser Antilles. Looks like it’s going to get stuck in that broad circulation the GFS always has on the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia.
Update: then it fades away and the wave is an absolute mess once it reaches the Lesser Antilles. Looks like it’s going to get stuck in that broad circulation the GFS always has on the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia.
Last edited by aspen on Sat Jun 25, 2022 5:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
HWRF nailed convective structure this afternoon wow. Pretty impressed not gonna lie.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Seems like the models are shaping up for a Cesar 1996 type situation
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
skyline385 wrote:12Z EPS, members seem to be further closing down on CA
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220625/c276869904fd3d04a89bba7f5f5f96e1.jpg
But more north than the 00z EPS. 00Z EPS had half the members sending its remnants into the EPAC. 12Z they're clustered on it entering the Yucatan channel. Something to monitor considering Harvey 2017.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
HWRF has been switching from the early development camp (ICON/CMC) to the late development camp (GFS/Euro). Despite a big convective burst tomorrow, 94L struggles to close off an LLC — probably due to typical early-season trades — until just after it passes the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
Most models agree on a landfall taking place sometime on Saturday, which will give 94L at least two days to intensify, depending on when it becomes a TC.
18z HMON has a slightly faster development pace, with 94L becoming a TS while it’s over the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday morning.
Most models agree on a landfall taking place sometime on Saturday, which will give 94L at least two days to intensify, depending on when it becomes a TC.
18z HMON has a slightly faster development pace, with 94L becoming a TS while it’s over the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday morning.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
aspen wrote:HWRF has been switching from the early development camp (ICON/CMC) to the late development camp (GFS/Euro). Despite a big convective burst tomorrow, 94L struggles to close off an LLC — probably due to typical early-season trades — until just after it passes the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
Most models agree on a landfall taking place sometime on Saturday, which will give 94L at least two days to intensify, depending on when it becomes a TC.
18z HMON has a slightly faster development pace, with 94L becoming a TS while it’s over the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday morning.
18z HWRF also seems to be much slower than the 12z.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Entire 00z model suite is pretty much into Central America. Only exception is some GEFS members that are the strongest. Those have 94L gaining more latitude.
Still some northerly members on the EPS later in the forecast track.
About 20-30% of EPS members in the past 5 runs showed this getting into the BOC or GOM.
Still some northerly members on the EPS later in the forecast track.
About 20-30% of EPS members in the past 5 runs showed this getting into the BOC or GOM.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sun Jun 26, 2022 3:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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