EPAC: BONNIE - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
HMON is coming in far weaker and further south through 78hrs. Let’s see if it makes that turn to the north again this run.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Yeah the HWRF and HMON shifted back south on this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Kingarabian wrote:Yeah the HWRF and HMON shifted back south on this run.
HMON stayed south and has an almost identical solution to the GFS, with a moderate Cat 1 into CA. HWRF took a page out of the last few HMON runs and shifted north after passing the ABC islands, RI’ing into a 90 kt Cat 2 before dry air starts to erode the core.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
aspen wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Yeah the HWRF and HMON shifted back south on this run.
HMON stayed south and has an almost identical solution to the GFS, with a moderate Cat 1 into CA. HWRF took a page out of the last few HMON runs and shifted north after passing the ABC islands, RI’ing into a 90 kt Cat 2 before dry air starts to erode the core.
Yeah in the end it was more north compared to the previous run. Its looking like how strong future Bonnie is after it enter the Caribbean will play a role in the track.
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- skyline385
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Something else to note, HWRF is also much slower than HMON giving it time to turn north as the ridge weakens.
Last edited by skyline385 on Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:06 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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- skyline385
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Looks like Tapatalk double posted. Delete please, wish there was a better alternative than this app.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models
The ECMWF Ensemble (12z run) now shows only about a 20 - 30 percent chance for a tropical storm. This morning, that was still a bit higher. Quite surprised there is little support for decent strengthening according to the weather models, despite the NHC saying the environment is rather favorable.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
skyline385 wrote:Looks like Tapatalk double posted. Delete please, wish there was a better alternative than this app.
Our page is mobile friendly (that's a slight overstatement but it does work on mobile). You don't have to use tapatalk.
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M a r k
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ATL: TWO - Models
Kingarabian wrote:Latest guidance.
Interesting that HWRF (12hr Interpolated) and HMON are both so north from the rest. The Caribbean does seem favourable for intensification so they have a good chance for verifying.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models
skyline385 wrote:
Interesting that HWRF (12hr Interpolated) and HMON are both so north from the rest. The Caribbean does seem favourable for intensification so they have a good chance for verifying.
The HWRF has been showing some northerly shear picking up at the end of its last few runs, with PTC2 becoming displaced from its UL anticyclone. It remains to be seen if that actually verifies. No other model has shown it, and while this run keeps intensifying up until landfall, you can tell it’s dealing with something by looking at the ragged simulated IR.
Also finally the HWRF and HMON agree with each other, and aren’t showing opposite extreme solutions.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models
aspen wrote:skyline385 wrote:
Interesting that HWRF (12hr Interpolated) and HMON are both so north from the rest. The Caribbean does seem favourable for intensification so they have a good chance for verifying.
The HWRF has been showing some northerly shear picking up at the end of its last few runs, with PTC2 becoming displaced from its UL anticyclone. It remains to be seen if that actually verifies. No other model has shown it, and while this run keeps intensifying up until landfall, you can tell it’s dealing with something by looking at the ragged simulated IR.
Also finally the HWRF and HMON agree with each other, and aren’t showing opposite extreme solutions.
Hate to break it to you but HWFI (HWRF 6 hr interpolated) did go the opposite way lol
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models
SHIPS still bullish
* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO AL022022 06/28/22 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 51 59 65 72 78 80 82 84 86 91 94 97 98
V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 47 51 56 63 61 63 66 67 69 42 33 29 28 27
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 47 51 59 58 64 73 80 82 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 5 8 7 8 4 8 4 14 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 1 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 1 9 41 88 132 113 121 38 148 163 142 142 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.8 26.8 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 154 147 139 136 138 125 128 134 139 138 143 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 154 147 139 136 138 125 128 134 139 138 143 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.6 -53.7 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 6 8 7 9 7 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 68 67 68 68 68 71 74 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 77 80 78 77 77 89 83 105 99 104 73 72 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 66 98 113 123 120 72 35 21 35 35 9 54 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -5 -2 1 0 -1 -7 -2 -2 1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 375 361 376 258 154 11 88 31 100 289 272 58 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.8 11.3 11.6 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.8 55.7 57.6 59.6 63.8 67.6 71.1 74.8 77.9 80.6 83.2 86.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 19 20 20 20 18 18 16 15 13 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 38 27 24 27 19 2 5 12 16 16 26 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 24. 30. 37. 43. 45. 47. 49. 51. 56. 59. 62. 63.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.5 52.0
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 3.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 2.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 26.4% 17.5% 9.6% 7.1% 12.6% 13.4% 18.5%
Logistic: 6.3% 42.1% 23.1% 12.9% 7.7% 20.0% 19.2% 31.1%
Bayesian: 2.0% 20.2% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 5.8% 24.5% 37.9%
Consensus: 4.8% 29.6% 14.9% 7.9% 5.0% 12.8% 19.0% 29.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/28/2022 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 43 47 51 56 63 61 63 66 67 69 42 33 29 28 27
18HR AGO 35 34 39 43 47 52 59 57 59 62 63 65 38 29 25 24 23
12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 44 51 49 51 54 55 57 30 21 17 16 15
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 34 41 39 41 44 45 47 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO AL022022 06/28/22 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 51 59 65 72 78 80 82 84 86 91 94 97 98
V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 47 51 56 63 61 63 66 67 69 42 33 29 28 27
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 47 51 59 58 64 73 80 82 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 5 8 7 8 4 8 4 14 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 1 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 1 9 41 88 132 113 121 38 148 163 142 142 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.8 26.8 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 154 147 139 136 138 125 128 134 139 138 143 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 154 147 139 136 138 125 128 134 139 138 143 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.6 -53.7 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 6 8 7 9 7 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 68 67 68 68 68 71 74 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 77 80 78 77 77 89 83 105 99 104 73 72 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 66 98 113 123 120 72 35 21 35 35 9 54 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -5 -2 1 0 -1 -7 -2 -2 1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 375 361 376 258 154 11 88 31 100 289 272 58 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.8 11.3 11.6 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.8 55.7 57.6 59.6 63.8 67.6 71.1 74.8 77.9 80.6 83.2 86.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 19 20 20 20 18 18 16 15 13 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 38 27 24 27 19 2 5 12 16 16 26 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 24. 30. 37. 43. 45. 47. 49. 51. 56. 59. 62. 63.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.5 52.0
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 3.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 2.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 26.4% 17.5% 9.6% 7.1% 12.6% 13.4% 18.5%
Logistic: 6.3% 42.1% 23.1% 12.9% 7.7% 20.0% 19.2% 31.1%
Bayesian: 2.0% 20.2% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 5.8% 24.5% 37.9%
Consensus: 4.8% 29.6% 14.9% 7.9% 5.0% 12.8% 19.0% 29.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/28/2022 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 43 47 51 56 63 61 63 66 67 69 42 33 29 28 27
18HR AGO 35 34 39 43 47 52 59 57 59 62 63 65 38 29 25 24 23
12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 44 51 49 51 54 55 57 30 21 17 16 15
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 34 41 39 41 44 45 47 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- skyline385
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models
Kingarabian wrote:SHIPS still bullish* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO AL022022 06/28/22 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 51 59 65 72 78 80 82 84 86 91 94 97 98
V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 47 51 56 63 61 63 66 67 69 42 33 29 28 27
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 47 51 59 58 64 73 80 82 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 5 8 7 8 4 8 4 14 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 1 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 1 9 41 88 132 113 121 38 148 163 142 142 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.8 26.8 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 154 147 139 136 138 125 128 134 139 138 143 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 154 147 139 136 138 125 128 134 139 138 143 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.6 -53.7 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 6 8 7 9 7 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 68 67 68 68 68 71 74 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 77 80 78 77 77 89 83 105 99 104 73 72 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 66 98 113 123 120 72 35 21 35 35 9 54 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -5 -2 1 0 -1 -7 -2 -2 1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 375 361 376 258 154 11 88 31 100 289 272 58 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.8 11.3 11.6 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.8 55.7 57.6 59.6 63.8 67.6 71.1 74.8 77.9 80.6 83.2 86.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 19 20 20 20 18 18 16 15 13 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 38 27 24 27 19 2 5 12 16 16 26 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 24. 30. 37. 43. 45. 47. 49. 51. 56. 59. 62. 63.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.5 52.0
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 3.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 2.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 26.4% 17.5% 9.6% 7.1% 12.6% 13.4% 18.5%
Logistic: 6.3% 42.1% 23.1% 12.9% 7.7% 20.0% 19.2% 31.1%
Bayesian: 2.0% 20.2% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 5.8% 24.5% 37.9%
Consensus: 4.8% 29.6% 14.9% 7.9% 5.0% 12.8% 19.0% 29.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022022 TWO 06/28/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022022 TWO 06/28/2022 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 43 47 51 56 63 61 63 66 67 69 42 33 29 28 27
18HR AGO 35 34 39 43 47 52 59 57 59 62 63 65 38 29 25 24 23
12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 44 51 49 51 54 55 57 30 21 17 16 15
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 34 41 39 41 44 45 47 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
Something to keep in mind
https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1540322707711074308
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models
Yup
SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 5 8 7 8 4 8 4 14 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 1 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 1 9 41 88 132 113 121 38 148 163 142 142 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.8 26.8 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 154 147 139 136 138 125 128 134 139 138 143 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 154 147 139 136 138 125 128 134 139 138 143 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.6 -53.7 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 6 8 7 9 7 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 68 67 68 68 68 71 74 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 1 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 1 9 41 88 132 113 121 38 148 163 142 142 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.8 26.8 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 154 147 139 136 138 125 128 134 139 138 143 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 154 147 139 136 138 125 128 134 139 138 143 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.6 -53.7 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 6 8 7 9 7 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 68 67 68 68 68 71 74 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models
Both the HWRF and HMON shifted north this run. HMON clears Central America. HWRF would've as well if it had a slower forward speed.
HWRF
HMON
HWRF
HMON
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ATL: TWO - Models
Euro, CMC, and ICON all show a SW turn into the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border and a successful crossover into the EPac. PTC2 seems to be trying its hardest to be a 1-for-1 repeat of Cesar ‘96; hopefully its impacts are nowhere near as bad.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: TWO - Models
Every 12z global model run shows PTC2 either redeveloping over on the EPac side, or surviving the crossover.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models
Intensities have dropped off on most the guidance to at most a minimal hurricane at landfall in Central America.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models
HWRF and HMON don’t show PTC2 getting disrupted much by Central America. It makes landfall as a strong TS/low end hurricane and emerges as a moderate to strong TS, with a structure ripe for RI.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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