skyline385 wrote:aspen wrote:There’s a large expanding hot tower of <-80C convection over Bonnie’s tiny core. The next pass might be a few mbar lower.
This structure would’ve been ripe for RI into a major (or close to one) if Bonnie had formed a day or two ago. CA dodged a potentially large bullet this time.
You were right, almost 2.5mb drop in 50 mins
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220702/b9e0a6b5eb3cd5bed6876505240970de.jpg
Looks like this pass (and some additional data) supports 45-50 kt and 996-997mb. This might get to high end TS status before landfall.