Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Hey Adrian. ACE up to 175.
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1535328203794956289
https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... ricane?s=w
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1535328203794956289
https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... ricane?s=w
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- toad strangler
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
cycloneye wrote:Hey Adrian. ACE up to 175.
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1535328203794956289
https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... ricane?s=w
oceanic & atmospheric .... it take two to tango
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
cycloneye wrote:Hey Adrian. ACE up to 175.
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1535328203794956289
https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... ricane?s=w
Could go even higher after June data is ingested.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
TWC has upgraded its forecast to 21/9/4. Unfortunately, I can’t try getting the link to the article without going to the app.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- ouragans
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
aspen wrote:TWC has upgraded its forecast to 21/9/4. Unfortunately, I can’t try getting the link to the article without going to the app.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... er-company
21 TS... they did it
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This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Added Weather Channel June 16 update to the first post list of expert forecasts.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/52i20AI.jpg
This is 2021 though?
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- skyline385
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Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July forecast=20/0/4
Teban54 wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/52i20AI.jpg
This is 2021 though?
Here’s a SS of the latest one from my phone
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July forecast=20/0/4
skyline385 wrote:Teban54 wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/52i20AI.jpg
This is 2021 though?
Here’s a SS of the latest one from my phone
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220705/2d89b833d935f29f21bf8d95451f7dfc.png
Thanks for the correction.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July forecast=18/9/4
The current forecast for the JulySeptember trade wind is for 0.77±0.80 ms-1 weaker than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020 climatology)
TSR forecast weaker winds and warmer sst compared to May forecast.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July forecast=18/9/4
zzh wrote:The current forecast for the JulySeptember trade wind is for 0.77±0.80 ms-1 weaker than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020 climatology)
TSR forecast weaker winds and warmer sst compared to May forecast.
We also took into account the early development of a potential tropical cyclone in the MDR and tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea.
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- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July forecast=18/9/4
al78 wrote:zzh wrote:The current forecast for the JulySeptember trade wind is for 0.77±0.80 ms-1 weaker than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020 climatology)
TSR forecast weaker winds and warmer sst compared to May forecast.
We also took into account the early development of a potential tropical cyclone in the MDR and tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea.
There was no actual development in the MDR. Bonnie developed in the SW Caribbean, which is a common area for development early in the season. PTC advisories have been issued only recently to cover a wave that MAY develop and impact land within 48 hrs.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July forecast=18/9/4
wxman57 wrote:al78 wrote:zzh wrote:The current forecast for the JulySeptember trade wind is for 0.77±0.80 ms-1 weaker than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020 climatology)
TSR forecast weaker winds and warmer sst compared to May forecast.
We also took into account the early development of a potential tropical cyclone in the MDR and tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea.
There was no actual development in the MDR. Bonnie developed in the SW Caribbean, which is a common area for development early in the season. PTC advisories have been issued only recently to cover a wave that MAY develop and impact land within 48 hrs.
The fact that we got a July system from an AEW is a decent signal for an active year. Seasons from 1980-2020 that had at least one AEW-based June/July system, regardless of location, averaged out to 16.9 NS/9.0 H/4.1 MH and 160.26 ACE. Seasons that had July development from non-tropical sources averaged lower at 14.3 NS/7.1 H/3.2 MH and 119.01 ACE.
Seasons since 1980 that had at least one MDR or ECar system in June/July averaged only slightly higher in named storms counts: 17.5 NS/8.9 H/3.9 MH and 161.47 ACE.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July forecast=18/9/4
wxman57 wrote:al78 wrote:zzh wrote:The current forecast for the JulySeptember trade wind is for 0.77±0.80 ms-1 weaker than normal (1991-2020 climatology). The current forecast for the August-September SST is for 0.25±0.33°C warmer than normal (1991-2020 climatology)
TSR forecast weaker winds and warmer sst compared to May forecast.
We also took into account
the early development of a potential tropical cyclone in the MDR and tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea.
There was no actual development in the MDR. Bonnie developed in the SW Caribbean, which is a common area for development early in the season. PTC advisories have been issued only recently to cover a wave that MAY develop and impact land within 48 hrs.
What is your take on the new euro forecast with enhance in the western gulf?
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- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July forecast=18/9/4
hurricane2025 wrote:What is your take on the new euro forecast with enhance in the western gulf?
I'm not sure what algorithm they use to produce such forecasts of enhanced or reduced activity, so it's hard to comment on that, specifically. However, The persistent ridge over the central U.S. and Texas which has led to an extended drought would suggest any enhancement would be for the NE Gulf and/or the southeast U.S. coast.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July forecast=18/9/4
wxman57 wrote:hurricane2025 wrote:What is your take on the new euro forecast with enhance in the western gulf?
I'm not sure what algorithm they use to produce such forecasts of enhanced or reduced activity, so it's hard to comment on that, specifically. However, The persistent ridge over the central U.S. and Texas which has led to an extended drought would suggest any enhancement would be for the NE Gulf and/or the southeast U.S. coast.
Any thoughts on the reduced OTS look shown on the new euro and 500mb heights?
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:
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