2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1549141831715360774




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1549141814338371584

[toad strangler]

I’d love to see these long range models be correct now that they are bearish. But I look at the calendar and know better.

ahhhhhh mid July at S2K

[Yellow Evan]

VP for last 15 days of August show rising air over Africa atleast which should get the activity going but Western Atlantic remains suppressed.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220718/d46895b374dc32a49ed70efc0d5174ca.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220718/70acc3ae85f01bce3a1b70b09a6422d4.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220718/b8a66b65164c496018eaae2839d9a42e.jpg

…Which is actually a good thing

[skyline385]

VP for last 15 days of August show rising air over Africa atleast which should get the activity going but Western Atlantic remains suppressed.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220718/d46895b374dc32a49ed70efc0d5174ca.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220718/70acc3ae85f01bce3a1b70b09a6422d4.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220718/b8a66b65164c496018eaae2839d9a42e.jpg

You actually don't want a -VP cell in the western Atlantic for NATL activity because that just aids TWs to develop in the EPAC. Having just a rising cell over Africa is one of the best possible configurations during ASO - it's only during early and late season where you would want the MJO in phase 8/1 because that's CAG season and it boosts tropical waves as they interact with the monsoon gyre.

Yep i am aware, “but” was the wrong word there in my comment

[NotSparta]

VP for last 15 days of August show rising air over Africa atleast which should get the activity going but Western Atlantic remains suppressed.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220718/d46895b374dc32a49ed70efc0d5174ca.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220718/70acc3ae85f01bce3a1b70b09a6422d4.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220718/b8a66b65164c496018eaae2839d9a42e.jpg

This -VP sure made for an active Caribbean season, huh?

[MHC Tracking]

This excessive ridging problem the Euro is showing for August has been in place ever since last October. If it persists, then deep tropics activity during ASO could be lower than currently forecast. It’s starting to feel more and more probable that a forecast bust season is coming.

The CFS has been flip-flopping a lot. Some runs show over half a dozen MDR systems and some long-tracking majors during August/September, other runs barely show any storms after August 20th with extended periods of inactivity in September.

Personally wouldn't call for a "bust season"...yet. Will this season live up to the 180= ACE hype of June? In all likelihood, no. But to suggest that the season may "busT2 based off of one ECMWF weekly set is not particularly sound logic, made even less sound by the use of the long-range CFS (notoriously low resolution and wavering model). I'd definitely hold off on any significant forecast reductions until mid-August, as CSU does. Before then it is honestly too soon to tell.

It’s not one weekly though, all of them have been on a downtrend for a while. The seasonal forecast too dropped numbers in July from June. But i agree with the rest of your points, particularly regarding the CFS.

As you would expect, NS were reduced due to the cooler subtropics -> less likelihood of "shortie" spam, as in 2020-21. The other reductions were relatively minor as far as I can remember

[USTropics]

VP for last 15 days of August show rising air over Africa atleast which should get the activity going but Western Atlantic remains suppressed.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220718/d46895b374dc32a49ed70efc0d5174ca.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220718/70acc3ae85f01bce3a1b70b09a6422d4.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220718/b8a66b65164c496018eaae2839d9a42e.jpg

That’s actually a pretty favorable velocity pattern. I think one time Eric Webb shared a composite hyperactive/above average pattern VP map, and typically speaking you need sinking over the EPAC and W Atlantic but rising over the Indian Ocean and Africa to get those kinds of seasons. It’s when you have a rising cell over the EPAC where competition between the EPAC and Atlantic arises, causing the Atlantic to ultimately get hurt, but there does not seem to be a rising EPAC cell there

200mb VP anomaly pattern for the past 7 most active seasons since 2000 for ASO (determined by ACE):


200mb VP anomaly pattern for the past 7 most inactive seasons since 2000 for ASO (determined by ACE):

[Category5Kaiju]

I’m definitely starting to feel the heat of speculations that this season will bust, especially on some social media comments

Then I look back, and since 2016, nearly every hurricane season was like this in late July and early August, and nearly every hurricane season eventually outperformed to an extent contrary to predictions for that specific year.

In other words, I still do not see anything definitive that automatically convinces me at this point that we’re in for a bust (also doesn’t help that the past 6 years ended pretty strongly too ). As far as I am concerned, MDR sst anomalies are slightly above average with the possibility that they will warm up heading into peak season, and we’re still in a weak La Niña. Oh, and we’ve already had an anomalously convectively active MDR in June.

[USTropics]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1549141831715360774

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1549141814338371584

I’m definitely starting to feel the heat of speculations that this season will bust, especially on some social media comments

Then I look back, and since 2016, nearly every hurricane season was like this in late July and early August, and nearly every hurricane season eventually outperformed to an extent contrary to predictions for that specific year.

In other words, I still do not see anything definitive that automatically convinces me at this point that we’re in for a bust (also doesn’t help that the past 6 years ended pretty strongly too ). As far as I am concerned, MDR sst anomalies are slightly above average with the possibility that they will warm up heading into peak season, and we’re still in a weak La Niña. Oh, and we’ve already had an anomalously convectively active MDR in June.

That's how I'm seeing things, there's nothing in the July NMME or Copernicus data set of seasonal models that stands out significantly from the May/June seasonal forecasts. I could see agencies decreasing the named storm count by 1 or 2 due to the inactive July, but the parameter's for hurricanes and major hurricanes hasn't really changed imo for the heart of the season (ASO). I do think the seasonal models are on to something with the subtropics remaining high in subsidence/low convective parameters (likely resulting in more subtropical Atlantic ridging). This could result in AEWs continuing to traverse a bit lower in latitude for parts of August until intraseasonal changes promote higher amplitude waves.

[skyline385]

Hmm missed this one because was focusing on long-range, this is probably also what the GFS has been hinting at. Maybe could see something weak spin up?

[Fego]

Yes, higher SST in the subtropics may create more TUTTs.

"As the subtropical ridge begins to relax in August and into September and October, AEWs will begin to increase in latitude and decrease in speed:"
https://i.imgur.com/SPIA0mX.png

Hi.
The STR is the same as the Azores Anticyclone or is a different weather pattern?

[skyline385]

Papin’s threads are very interesting, always a level headed analysis and calls out a lot of the assumptions many make in this field.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1549153585929134080

[WiscoWx02]

And just like that, with some posts of social media you would think we are watching an El Nino develop and a thermohaline collapse at the same time

Honestly though think about it like this…2018 had a insane eastern Pacific hurricane season due to an El Nino and the Atlantic was still somewhat active. Now we have a La Nina, a strong WAM. a cool subtropics, a warmer than normal MDR and westerly trades coming, and some are saying we might as well compare this season to other just average seasons. A “here we go again moment” to be sure. I seriously don’t buy the EPS forecast. I really think all the models have a temporary bias toward the east Pacific because it’s been so busy as of late. These models always do this time of year. Look at Estelle right now…the storm had the look to rapidly intensify and it didn’t. We’ve seen all of this before again and again and again in the last 6 years and all those hurricane seasons ended up being above average. I’m not buying the quieter hurricane season after all posts, think the opinions of the most extreme views in terms of expected inactivity are too static and don’t take into account some expected changes that will likely change model outputs in the coming weeks. The biggest of which to watch is how much the MDR warms due to weaker trades in the coming weeks. This will likely influence other things globally especially when things are already so quiet world wide. Still think the ball is in the Atlantic’s court more so than any other basin.

Add on: to be clear I am not expecting a hyperactive hurricane season at this point, but above average is likely IMO still and 1999, 2008, 2021 are some of the best analogue years in my opinion.

[zzh]

A big TUTT out there, pretty much shuts down the entire Atlantic.

[Category5Kaiju]

And just like that, with some posts of social media you would think we are watching an El Nino develop and a thermohaline collapse at the same time

Honestly though think about it like this…2018 had a insane eastern Pacific hurricane season due to an El Nino and the Atlantic was still somewhat active. Now we have a La Nina, a strong WAM. a cool subtropics, a warmer than normal MDR and westerly trades coming, and some are saying we might as well compare this season to other just average seasons. A “here we go again moment” to be sure. I seriously don’t buy the EPS forecast. I really think all the models have a temporary bias toward the east Pacific because it’s been so busy as of late. These models always do this time of year. Look at Estelle right now…the storm had the look to rapidly intensify and it didn’t. We’ve seen all of this before again and again and again in the last 6 years and all those hurricane seasons ended up being above average. I’m not buying the quieter hurricane season after all posts, think the opinions of the most extreme views in terms of expected inactivity are too static and don’t take into account some expected changes that will likely change model outputs in the coming weeks. The biggest of which to watch is how much the MDR warms due to weaker trades in the coming weeks. This will likely influence other things globally especially when things are already so quiet world wide. Still think the ball is in the Atlantic’s court more so than any other basin.

Add on: to be clear I am not expecting a hyperactive hurricane season at this point, but above average is likely IMO still and 1999, 2008, 2021 are some of the best analogue years in my opinion.

If anything, this likely could very well be a year with a not-so-crazy number of total NSs (especially given we're not seeing many shorties per se) but still a decent hurricane and major hurricane ratio. It's still mid-July, so of course dry air and shear are going to be a problem for anything that wants to develop. However, as USTropics said, there's hardly any red flag, concrete evidence that this season is going to massively bust, aside from the occasional zilch runs by very long range models (which, of course, did not definitively predict Irma, or Dorian, or Laura in July) and incessantly fluctuating MJO/CCKW propagation maps. I still am expecting a pretty active season once everything is all done. Hyperactivity-wise, I genuinely believe that it's going to be a bit tricky to tell in advance, since all it can take is one or maybe two long-lived storms to get us over that 160 ACE mark. But who knows, maybe September will tell us a different story.

Additionally, I remember you a while back saying that we may not get a NS until August, and I'm starting to actually think that you may be onto something here. Seems like shorties are not to be taken for granted this year, unlike 2020 and 2021. I suppose that's a bit of a good thing considering there are a select few who complain that shorties should not be classified and that they're just clouds, so perhaps we won't have to worry about arguments regarding that

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/8bixHO5.png
A big TUTT out there, pretty much shuts down the entire Atlantic.

It’s not like there was anything going on to shut down lol.

[AtlanticWind]

We have seen the Euro miss development outside of 3 or 4 days, I cant put much stock on these
long lead time forecasts. It is still very likely we see a burst of activity starting mid August.

Overall conditions still appear favorable and though we could have something unforeseen disrupt
peak season , I would still put my money on a very active season.

[AtlanticWind]

I think also that while trying to read the tea leaves a month in advance can be fun , I have yet to
see any past seasons when it really gave us any foresight into what ending up happening.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think also that while trying to read the tea leaves a month in advance can be fun , I have yet to
see any past seasons when it really gave us any foresight into what ending up happening.

Yeah good point; I mean, even in 2005 there were season canceled comments after Emily, so yeah

[NotSparta]

https://i.imgur.com/8bixHO5.png
A big TUTT out there, pretty much shuts down the entire Atlantic.

Such is July