2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[captainbarbossa19]

Getting more of that August look.

[SFLcane]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/AYlYkDr6bjk[/youtube]

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/RVJWqMV.png

Getting more of that August look.

What August look?

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/RVJWqMV.png

Getting more of that August look.

What do you mean?

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.imgur.com/RVJWqMV.png

Getting more of that August look.

What do you mean?

I guess I should say more of a look that climate models have been showing. There hasn't been a ton of east coast ridging yet.

[NotSparta]

Seeing all this I still feel as if this year will be 2017-lite.
Remember how quiet 2017 was up until Harvey in mid-August?

Not this quiet lol. Franklin, Gert, etc

That was August, not July

[weeniepatrol]

We know this is no 2013 for a huge variety of reasons, but one of the more eyebrow-raising indicators was positive salinity departures in the Atlantic basin. This corresponds to a stronger-than-average THC.



Here's a comparison between 2013 and 2015, by which point the THC had recovered.



The THC is driven in large part by differences in salinity and the changes in oceanic density that it provides. Saline water is heavier and sinks which drives and enhances its oceanic currents.

[cycloneye]

TD probability is up on today's EPS update.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1549876312545890304




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[cycloneye]

That infamous 2013 shows up again. It has been mentioned many times in the past few weeks.

[Category5Kaiju]

:uarrow: That infamous 2013 shows up again. It has been mentioned many times in the past few weeks.

yup, except I can list out at least 5 radical differences between 2013 and now:

1. 2013 was a cool ENSO that came off a warm neutral +ENSO year, while 2022 is a third-year La Nina (possibly weak for ASO) that experienced more profound cooling of the Nino 3,4 regions during spring

2. 2013's Atlantic sst profile saw anomalously warm subtropics at this point in time, while 2022 clearly has cooler subtropics and warmer deep tropics

3. In 2013, the EPAC had yet to produce a major hurricane while in 2022, the EPAC has already seen more major hurricanes than 2013 alone did (let alone a Cat 4 too)

4. The WPAC saw decent activity in July in 2013, while in 2022, it has been a ghost town, free of named storms for a while

5. In 2013, quite interestingly, the Atlantic saw 2 MDR July tropical systems (but both struggled) while in 2022, this has yet to happen yet, although the MDR was pretty juicy in late June, unlike in 2013 when the unusual stability, wave-free look of the MDR was noticed by some weather trackers as particularly odd

[cheezyWXguy]

:uarrow: That infamous 2013 shows up again. It has been mentioned many times in the past few weeks.

I noticed, I thought it was a meme but some people seem to be actually grabbing on

[skyline385]

:uarrow: That infamous 2013 shows up again. It has been mentioned many times in the past few weeks.

I noticed, I thought it was a meme but some people seem to be actually grabbing on

It is a meme, I haven't seen anyone seriously think its going to be 2013 v2.0 (except for the two people who voted "no majors in 2022" in the poll ).

[Category5Kaiju]

:uarrow: That infamous 2013 shows up again. It has been mentioned many times in the past few weeks.

I noticed, I thought it was a meme but some people seem to be actually grabbing on

It is a meme, I haven't seen anyone seriously think its going to be 2013 v2.0 (except for the two people who "no majors in 2022" in the poll ).

That year has really given many wx trackers PTSD

Iirc, there were some enthusiasts who were very upset and even angry, resenting how they could not even track a Cat 3 or 4 fish storm that year.

But again, if anything, this gap in the activity that we're seeing now is more akin to years such as 2004, 2019, or 2021 than 2013, which actually featured systems in late July ironically

[skyline385]

Talking about SSTs, it is interesting how today's EPS has trades continuously over the Canary islands for the entire run. We could see some decent cooling of the current if it verifies.



 https://twitter.com/MrWxAtlantic/status/1549950537449279490

[Kingarabian]

2016 had a Historical-2015-Super-El-Nino-Lingering-Effects problem.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1550105039892537344

[tolakram]

https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1549876312545890304

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A high school student from DC who questions the value of his own tweet. Please remember there's a big difference from making a guess and ending up correct and making reasoned analysis and ending up correct. The tweet itself is not an issue, but posting it here in an indicators thread is. That is not an indicator, it's just another random tweet.

The thread that tweet is in is good stuff IMO as far as interesting analysis.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1550112105470337024

[Wampadawg]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1550112105470337024?s=20&t=Nnzw48GslC9og-2sC5T4MQ

Ahhh perhaps the slumbering giant is beginning to toss and turn in his bed!