2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[aspen]

I feel like Phil’s numbers will still probably be too high once all is said and done. Like tolkram said, the season probably hinges on the impacts of the cool subtropics. It’ll be hard to get close to 2019/20/21 NS counts if the subtropics are too cool to produce much, and if the cool Canary Current does lead to wave-breaking, then we could see another west-shifted season like 2020, except with far fewer storms.

Also it’s kinda funny how it was “warm subtropics will kill this season” for months here and suddenly flipped to “cool subtropics will kill this season”.

[WiscoWx02]

I’m shocked Phil didn’t lower it even more to be honest. I’m expecting a slightly above average to near average season at this point. The tropics are definitely a bit off and wave breaking is probably going to continue to be an issue for the foreseeable future. The highly favorable elements of the Atlantic will offset the 2013 bust potential…I think…but overall I’m not expecting anything like 1999,1998 or 1950 anymore. Think 2000, 2007 are the best most recent analogues for this year. This does not mean it can’t be a big season though. The ITCZ being displaced to the north could lead to a more active Caribbean Sea which is no good any wat you cut it. If this year behaves anything like 2020 did with all the Caribbean tracks due to the displaced ITCZ to the north and not south, we are in for one heck of a season regardless of how above or below average the season is.

[toad strangler]

I feel like Phil’s numbers will still probably be too high once all is said and done. Like tolkram said, the season probably hinges on the impacts of the cool subtropics. It’ll be hard to get close to 2019/20/21 NS counts if the subtropics are too cool to produce much, and if the cool Canary Current does lead to wave-breaking, then we could see another west-shifted season like 2020, except with far fewer storms.

Also it’s kinda funny how it was “warm subtropics will kill this season” for months here and suddenly flipped to “cool subtropics will kill this season”.

Well, Phil did say in his tweet that anomalous cool SST's in the sub tropical Atlantic can SOMETIMES cause greater vertical wind shear in the tropics. Not sure many of us caught the uncertainty there.

[Ntxw]

2000 pops up again. I think 3rd+ years extenuated cold ENSO(Nina) is still a good starting point. It won't be exact but it checks the most boxes for similarities globally than picking patches of SSTs here and there etc. The mean average of the 3rd year Ninas gives a pretty close proximity. Given overall warmer SSTs in today's world calls for probably a little more ACE than 2000.

[SFLcane]

But, in 1998 the subtropics were cool aslo and we ended with 180 ace.

[zzh]

I don't think it's reasonable to see subtropics as a whole. The western part is the part you want it to be cool and you want the eastern part to be warm. This year is the opposite.

[toad strangler]

But, in 1998 the subtropics were cool aslo and we ended with 180 ace.

That's probably a factor in Phil saying SOMETIMES

[skyline385]

2000 pops up again. I think 3rd+ years extenuated cold ENSO(Nina) is still a good starting point. It won't be exact but it checks the most boxes for similarities globally than picking patches of SSTs here and there etc. The mean average of the 3rd year Ninas gives a pretty close proximity. Given overall warmer SSTs in today's world calls for probably a little more ACE than 2000.

UA predicted an ACE of 131 all the way back in June with 15/7/3, would be very impressive if we end up close to their numbers. They were the only agency iirc who didnt have a hyperactive forecast.

[skyline385]

Similar EURO artifacts in the EPAC as well

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1555211579515441153

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1555213049879035904

[SFLcane]

A yawner come back in 2-3 weeks.

From Phil...

The Climate Forecast System (CFS) model is generally predicting above-normal vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean for the next two weeks (Figure 6).
We do anticipate that there could be a reduction in vertical wind shear near the end of the two-week forecast period.

[skyline385]

A yawner come back in 2-3 weeks.

From Phil...

The Climate Forecast System (CFS) model is generally predicting above-normal vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean for the next two weeks (Figure 6).
We do anticipate that there could be a reduction in vertical wind shear near the end of the two-week forecast period.

10% chance of >5 ACE

[tolakram]

From NOAA

NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season.

There are several atmospheric and oceanic conditions that still favor an active hurricane season. This includes La Niña conditions, which are favored to remain in place for the rest of 2022 and could allow the ongoing high-activity era conditions to dominate, or slightly enhance hurricane activity. In addition to a continued La Niña, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, an active west African Monsoon and likely above-normal Atlantic sea-surface temperatures set the stage for an active hurricane season and are reflective of the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes.

A little lower from NOAA and no mention of specific conditions that might drop it further.

I want to explain why I'm critical on the season buzzwords, read at your own risk.

If someone mentions a word as a reason for a change I want a definition, not just usage of the word. This is not only good for our community, to help explain the term, but also challenges the person using the term to explain what they mean rather than just parrot what someone else says. Quoting from a scientific article that is not applicable to tropical storm formation is not good enough. This keeps the thread interesting and focused on observation and science based discussion.

I know some here will be very annoyed by this but for those of us who have been following the tropics for years the term wave breaking seems to be a convenient reason for a slower than expected season. Why is it showing up this year? Theories are awesome, but why aren't hurricane forecasters with proven track records not mentioning them?

The only scholarly article I can find on wave breaking is Rossby Wave Breaking, with a couple of articles or papers written in the 2008 timeframe and one in 2013. Up until this year the wave breaking term has never been applied to tropical storm formation as far as I can tell (I did not read every page of every article, feel free to correct me). The only mention of wave breaking in an article that also mentions tropical activity that I can find is this: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2010547117 and I can read an abstract of an article here: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26741382

You can search in this thread for wave breaking and see how it was used to define something that seems the exact opposite of what we are hearing about now. If you search all of talking tropics you can find it mentioned as far back as 2018 and applied to just about every condition known. Too warm, too cold, TUTT's, PV streamers, etc.

In short, every season a new theory seems to appear to make it slower than expected. It's really not interesting unless the poster can explain why the theory has merit and how it can be applied to what we are currently seeing. Correlation does not equal causation, which is why many forecasters do not mention these terms without solid evidence that a theory can be show to have a significant effect. My opinion.

[cycloneye]

I notice a mood that is not a happy one here today so I will atempt to change it with this.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555227623684558854




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1555230159191642112

[LarryWx]

Whereas the significant downward CO State ACE change makes perfect sense, I think 150 ACE is likely still too high. The highest 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral season ACE of the 8 analogs was at 135 with 2000's in 2nd with 119. With it still only at 3 and with little chance of anything the next 7 days (through 8/10), I'm putting the likely high end near 135 with 120 my best guess. But I'd keep in mind that:

1. The models sometimes have badly missed the flip of the switch from quiet to active. Whereas they may be right, don't be fooled into thinking they're anywhere close to being all knowing.

2. Even a 120 ACE would still mean an active 8/11+.
1985, another 3rd year cold ENSO analog, and one of the most active ever for the US with 7 H landfalls (6 during 8/15+) had an ACE of only 88 and # of NS/H/MH only near the longterm average of 11/7/3!! The 7 US hits in 1985 was one more than the devastating and hyperactive seasons of 1893 (including PR), which had an ACE of 231; 2004, which had an ACE of 227; and 2005, which had an ACE of 250!

[captainbarbossa19]

I notice a mood that is not a happy one here today so I will atempt to change it with this.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555227623684558854

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1555230159191642112

Based on some of the unfavorable conditions that MAY be present in the MDR, I would not be surprised if we do end up seeing waves developing further west due to a better environment. This would likely reduce seasonal ACE. However, this would likely increase land impacts! Like LarryWx posted, one does not need to see high ACE to have high impacts from a season.

[skyline385]

From NOAA

NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season.

There are several atmospheric and oceanic conditions that still favor an active hurricane season. This includes La Niña conditions, which are favored to remain in place for the rest of 2022 and could allow the ongoing high-activity era conditions to dominate, or slightly enhance hurricane activity. In addition to a continued La Niña, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, an active west African Monsoon and likely above-normal Atlantic sea-surface temperatures set the stage for an active hurricane season and are reflective of the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes.

A little lower from NOAA and no mention of specific conditions that might drop it further.

I want to explain why I'm critical on the season buzzwords, read at your own risk.

If someone mentions a word as a reason for a change I want a definition, not just usage of the word. This is not only good for our community, to help explain the term, but also challenges the person using the term to explain what they mean rather than just parrot what someone else says. Quoting from a scientific article that is not applicable to tropical storm formation is not good enough. This keeps the thread interesting and focused on observation and science based discussion.

I know some here will be very annoyed by this but for those of us who have been following the tropics for years the term wave breaking seems to be a convenient reason for a slower than expected season. Why is it showing up this year? Theories are awesome, but why aren't hurricane forecasters with proven track records not mentioning them?

The only scholarly article I can find on wave breaking is Rossby Wave Breaking, with a couple of articles or papers written in the 2008 timeframe and one in 2013. Up until this year the wave breaking term has never been applied to tropical storm formation as far as I can tell (I did not read every page of every article, feel free to correct me). The only mention of wave breaking in an article that also mentions tropical activity that I can find is this: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2010547117 and I can read an abstract of an article here: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26741382

You can search in this thread for wave breaking and see how it was used to define something that seems the exact opposite of what we are hearing about now. If you search all of talking tropics you can find it mentioned as far back as 2018 and applied to just about every condition known. Too warm, too cold, TUTT's, PV streamers, etc.

In short, every season a new theory seems to appear to make it slower than expected. It's really not interesting unless the poster can explain why the theory has merit and how it can be applied to what we are currently seeing. Correlation does not equal causation, which is why many forecasters do not mention these terms without solid evidence that a theory can be show to have a significant effect. My opinion.

Phil does mention in his forecast though,

Cooler-than-normal SSTs in this region have been associated with enhanced wavebreaking into the tropics, which could potentially somewhat counteract the anticipated reduction in wind shear associated with La Niña.

As for studies, I haven't found many of it as well.

[toad strangler]

A yawner come back in 2-3 weeks.

From Phil...

The Climate Forecast System (CFS) model is generally predicting above-normal vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean for the next two weeks (Figure 6).
We do anticipate that there could be a reduction in vertical wind shear near the end of the two-week forecast period.

The period ends 3 days before bell ringing

[tolakram]

Phil does mention in his forecast though,

Cooler-than-normal SSTs in this region have been associated with enhanced wavebreaking into the tropics, which could potentially somewhat counteract the anticipated reduction in wind shear associated with La Niña.

As for studies, I haven't found many of it as well.

Good grief, I completely missed that. Is it wave breaking or wavebreaking?

Well, somewhat nevermind then, though he doesn't seem confident on how important it is.

5 Current Atlantic Basin Conditions

The tropical and subtropical eastern Atlantic have undergone a bit of anomalous
cooling over the past few weeks, but the tropical Atlantic (10-20°N, 60-20°W) remains
slightly warmer than normal (Figure 22). One of the reasons for the reduction in our
forecast was due to anomalous cooling in the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic.
Cooler-than-normal SSTs in this region have been associated with enhanced
wavebreaking into the tropics, which could potentially somewhat counteract the
anticipated reduction in wind shear associated with La Niña.

Following enhanced trade winds over the next few days, we anticipate weaker than-normal
trade winds for the next couple of weeks, likely leading to some anomalous
warming in the tropical Atlantic. Current 30-day-averaged SST anomalies in the tropical
Atlantic are at their 8th highest levels on record (since 1982) through July 31, trailing (in
descending order from warmest SSTs): 2010, 2005, 2017, 2020, 2016, 2011 and 2008.
All of those hurricane seasons had more ACE than the average 1991-2020 season, and
four of those seven seasons were characterized as hyperactive by NOAA (e.g., seasonal
ACE >= 160). The current SST anomaly pattern is relatively similar to the historical SST
pattern in August that has correlated with active Atlantic hurricane seasons (Figure 23).
The current SST pattern is tracking between SSTs typically experienced in above-average
Atlantic hurricane seasons and hyperactive seasons of the past 40 years (Figure 24).

source: https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-08.pdf

[skyline385]

Phil does mention in his forecast though,

Cooler-than-normal SSTs in this region have been associated with enhanced wavebreaking into the tropics, which could potentially somewhat counteract the anticipated reduction in wind shear associated with La Niña.

As for studies, I haven't found many of it as well.

Good grief, I completely missed that. Is it wave breaking or wavebreaking?

Well, somewhat nevermind then, though he doesn't seem confident on how important it is.

Yea probably cause there aren't a lot of concrete studies on it, it does seem to be a relatively new term. Anyways, I did ask Phil on twitter for a link to the study he references in his forecast, I am hoping he replies back so that it can shed some light.