Kingarabian wrote:EPAC is about to shutdown soon. We'll see within the next month or so if it's still active or not.
I posted something about 3rd year Nina's usually being slower than the previous two earlier this year. Sample size is too small to be definitive though. But ENSO is definitely a big play here.
GFS is starting to show Atlantic TCG. So let's just wait and see what happens this month.
King, I didn't realize you posted about 3rd year Niña seasons tending to be slower than prior ones. That's interesting because not being aware of that I saw the same thing after looking at 8 cases and posted about it:
1874, 1894, 1910, 1917, 1956, 1975, 1985, and 2000.
1874, 1894, 1910, 1917, 1956, and 2000 were that way. 1975 was actually a little stronger than 1974 and 1985 was stronger than 1984. The highest ACE was 135 (1894) even though that was way weaker than the hyperactive 1893. Even though 1985 was one of the worst for the US, ACE was still under 90 thus showing ACE can be deceiving. 2000 had an ACE of 119, which seems like a reasonable analog.