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AtlanticWind wrote:Kingarabian wrote:I remember a time when ensembles were taken more seriously than the deterministic models.
I think ensembles should definitely be leaned on 144+ hours out
to look for general devolpment possibilities.
The deterministic runs on tropical systems that far out are subject to too many varibles.
The ensembles at least may give some idea of general favorable/unfavorable conditions at longer times.
skyline385 wrote:GEFS taking out Miami and NOLA with a single member lol
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cycloneye wrote:
Something notable is that almost all the waves emerge around 15N and north from there.
cycloneye wrote:
Something notable is that almost all the waves emerge around 15N and north from there.
skyline385 wrote:cycloneye wrote:
Something notable is that almost all the waves emerge around 15N and north from there.
Think a lot of that is due to the ECMWF's deepening bias inland. Almost half of those waves are already at TS strength before they even reach the coast which won't be happening.
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Kingarabian wrote:skyline385 wrote:cycloneye wrote:
Something notable is that almost all the waves emerge around 15N and north from there.
Think a lot of that is due to the ECMWF's deepening bias inland. Almost half of those waves are already at TS strength before they even reach the coast which won't be happening.
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There are arguable cases in the past where AEWs splash down as formed TCs. They usually get a red circle, then are classified a TD a day later.
skyline385 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:skyline385 wrote:Think a lot of that is due to the ECMWF's deepening bias inland. Almost half of those waves are already at TS strength before they even reach the coast which won't be happening.
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There are arguable cases in the past where AEWs splash down as formed TCs. They usually get a red circle, then are classified a TD a day later.
I know there are strong waves which can splash down and immediately transition to a TC but a TC over land? Do you have any examples of this, am really curious about this.
Also FWIW i asked Andy about this a few days back and he was the one who suggested that the ECMWF has a overdeepening bias inland.
https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555879509878095872?s=21&t=PYBO-860uuxZL6cJRn5bYA
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InfernoFlameCat wrote:skyline385 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:There are arguable cases in the past where AEWs splash down as formed TCs. They usually get a red circle, then are classified a TD a day later.
I know there are strong waves which can splash down and immediately transition to a TC but a TC over land? Do you have any examples of this, am really curious about this.
Also FWIW i asked Andy about this a few days back and he was the one who suggested that the ECMWF has a overdeepening bias inland.
https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555879509878095872?s=21&t=PYBO-860uuxZL6cJRn5bYA
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Tropical storm Christine formed as a tropical depression inland in 1973. This was over Western Africa.
kevin wrote:06z GFS operational perhaps has one or two TDs in the WCar/GOM, but the main action is in the MDR with the first system starting to form at +114 hours. Eventually becomes a MH (looks OTS in this specific run). Behind it are two new TCs in the MDR. Until we actually have a defined source or already a TC, the ensembles are probably more valuable than single operational runs though.
https://i.imgur.com/XGQIOAp.png
https://i.imgur.com/Swn4yOp.png
skyline385 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:skyline385 wrote:Think a lot of that is due to the ECMWF's deepening bias inland. Almost half of those waves are already at TS strength before they even reach the coast which won't be happening.
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There are arguable cases in the past where AEWs splash down as formed TCs. They usually get a red circle, then are classified a TD a day later.
I know there are strong waves which can splash down and immediately transition to a TC but a TC over land? Do you have any examples of this, am really curious about this.
Also FWIW i asked Andy about this a few days back and he was the one who suggested that the ECMWF has a overdeepening bias inland.
https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555879509878095872?s=21&t=PYBO-860uuxZL6cJRn5bYA
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CourierPR wrote:SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Blinhart wrote:
Funny, it has happened before, and will happen again.
When has a tropical system formed hundreds of miles inland with no water underneath?
Please...redpill me.
There was evidence that Donna, in 1960 was already a storm before exiting Africa.
NotSparta wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:skyline385 wrote:I know there are strong waves which can splash down and immediately transition to a TC but a TC over land? Do you have any examples of this, am really curious about this.
Also FWIW i asked Andy about this a few days back and he was the one who suggested that the ECMWF has a overdeepening bias inland.
https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555879509878095872?s=21&t=PYBO-860uuxZL6cJRn5bYA
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Tropical storm Christine formed as a tropical depression inland in 1973. This was over Western Africa.
49 years ago. Not too common for a TC to form before it even hits water
Teban54 wrote:skyline385 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
There are arguable cases in the past where AEWs splash down as formed TCs. They usually get a red circle, then are classified a TD a day later.
I know there are strong waves which can splash down and immediately transition to a TC but a TC over land? Do you have any examples of this, am really curious about this.
Also FWIW i asked Andy about this a few days back and he was the one who suggested that the ECMWF has a overdeepening bias inland.
https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1555879509878095872?s=21&t=PYBO-860uuxZL6cJRn5bYA
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According to HURDAT data (visualizer search result here):
- Unnamed TD, 1971: TD inside Africa, peaked as TD
- Christine, 1973: TD inside Africa, peaked as TS
- Unnamed TD, 1978: TD inside Africa, peaked as TD
- Unnamed TD, 1978: TD inside Africa, peaked as TD
Most of them only have one advisory cycle inland, and their second data point is already over water.
IMO, the TDs over land may be suspect, and with today's technology they might not have been classified as such while still over Africa. I also think some of these TDs with long tracks typical of CV storms have probably reached TS strength at some point, even just briefly.
A poster said in the 2021 models thread that Donna 1960 may have been a storm before exiting Africa, but HURDAT still has Donna forming over water officially:CourierPR wrote:SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
When has a tropical system formed hundreds of miles inland with no water underneath?
Please...redpill me.
There was evidence that Donna, in 1960 was already a storm before exiting Africa.
There are many examples of storms that were classified as TDs very close to the African coast. Most recent examples include Rene 2020, Helene 2018 and Florence 2018. All three systems were still inland 6 hours prior to the first data point as a TD.
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