2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[jlauderdal]

12Z GEFS feat. the Florida shield (Keys don't count!)

Not good this far out, floridians beware.

[skyline385]

12Z GEFS feat. the Florida shield (Keys don't count!)

https://i.imgur.com/DMX44u1.png

Not good this far out, floridians beware.

The FL shield was a joke but here's a sensible take from Andy, still too far out as we dont know which wave is going to develop where if one even develops

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1559646052529086467

[skyline385]

Happy hour GFS trying to get another Irma going

[Spacecoast]

18z GFS: less vorticity, and more dry air (through 10 days), now favoring 2nd wave?


18Z GEFS: trending less members

[jlauderdal]

12Z GEFS feat. the Florida shield (Keys don't count!)

https://i.imgur.com/DMX44u1.png

Not good this far out, floridians beware.

The FL shield was a joke but here's a sensible take from Andy, still too far out as we dont know which wave is going to develop where if one even develops

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1559646052529086467

The ridge looks good out to 10 days, the atlantic ready to roll

[aspen]

18z GFS: less vorticity, and more dry air (through 10 days), now favoring 2nd wave?
https://i.ibb.co/pbsFbLV/gfs-mid-RH-eatl-fh120-282.gif

18Z GEFS: trending less members
https://i.ibb.co/p3gV8Wr/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-eatl-fh144-trend.gif

That’s what I was suspecting earlier today. The first wave (actually a merger of two waves on this run) ends up as the sacrificial wave that clears the way for something to form behind it.

[skyline385]

Also another system in the BoC on 18Z

[Spacecoast]

GEFS: Surviving, (or reincarnated) members (~25% of 31) find favorable conditions later in 18z run...

[aspen]

GEFS: Surviving, (or reincarnated) members (~25% of 31) find favorable conditions later in 18z run...
https://i.ibb.co/y0qrp2b/cchm.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/HBQrnQw/cchl.jpg

One member peaks at 932mb before hitting LA as a 940s Cat 4. It would be some sick joke if we get ANOTHER late August Cat 4 Louisiana landfall.

[LarryWx]

GEFS: Surviving, (or reincarnated) members (~25% of 31) find favorable conditions later in 18z run...
https://i.ibb.co/y0qrp2b/cchm.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/HBQrnQw/cchl.jpg

Yeah, it's concerning that the ensemble runs won't drop the dangerous development and far west movement of some members as regards the lead wave set to start emerging in ~24 hours. This has been going on for many runs now. The main hope is that too dry air will win out.

[IcyTundra]

0Z GFS looks like that first AEW is doing better on this run.

[Kingarabian]

00Z GFS coming in much stronger with that AEW off of Africa.

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane just NE of the Caribbean with another developing wave behind it, as well as another disturbance in the gulf...

[Hurricaneman]

This run looks as though it’s going to find an escape but Bermuda looks possible verbatim

[ElectricStorm]

This run is nasty, major towards Bermuda and a TS that looks to be stalling a bit over NOLA. 300 hours out but dang

[LarryWx]

Hurricane just NE of the Caribbean with another developing wave behind it, as well as another disturbance in the gulf...
https://i.imgur.com/uNafhTW.png

That makes 3 of the last 9 GFS runs with a western Atlantic H coming from the AEW about to hit the water.

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane just NE of the Caribbean with another developing wave behind it, as well as another disturbance in the gulf...
https://i.imgur.com/uNafhTW.png

That makes 3 of the last 9 GFS runs with a western Atlantic H coming from the AEW about to hit the water.

Yeah certainly will be one to watch. NHC will probably put up a lemon for it pretty soon I would think

[Hammy]

Canadian has become one of the most conservative models out there after the update a few years ago so this is worth taking notice of. It's ten days out of course, but large SW-NE monsoonal orientation very reminiscent of just before 1999's switch flip, as that has come up in discussion a few times.

[weeniepatrol]

0z GFS with a parade of hurricanes.

3 days

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS