2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Clearcloudz]

Wow, GEFS took my FL shield joke personally

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220817/04d323454121ea855d2796f24f01bf26.jpg


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There are huge economic factors at play here if a major hurricane strikes Florida this season due to the homeowners insurance crisis.

I'm posting a article here if anyone wants to read about it.
https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/08/12/floridas-latest-insurance-crisis-was-decades-in-the-making/

[aspen]

The GFS has been awfully consistent about a Gulf hurricane and two MDR hurricanes by September 1st over the last few runs. These are the disturbances to watch out for:

1.) A tropical wave that’ll move off of Africa between Friday 8/19 and Sunday 8/21

2.) Some disturbance, possibly a tropical wave, in the SW Caribbean around Tuesday 8/23. Either it’s the GFS’s typical bias in the region (random vorticity from Venezuela and not an actual source of genesis), or it’s an AEW and the exact same setup as Ida

3.) Another tropical wave that’ll roll off of Africa on Wednesday 8/24 or Thursday 8/25

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think what we are seeing is the pulse that was popping off storms in the EPAC has made its way into our part of the woods. That system that went into S TX was well on it's way had it not run out of time and the system in NW Caribbean is also over performing. Also don't forget the GFS has always had a rightward bias on MDR storms in the long range. While long range is just that, I think the models are indicating the change of state in the Atlantic.

[wxman57]

The GFS has been awfully consistent about a Gulf hurricane and two MDR hurricanes by September 1st over the last few runs. These are the disturbances to watch out for:

1.) A tropical wave that’ll move off of Africa between Friday 8/19 and Sunday 8/21

2.) Some disturbance, possibly a tropical wave, in the SW Caribbean around Tuesday 8/23. Either it’s the GFS’s typical bias in the region (random vorticity from Venezuela and not an actual source of genesis), or it’s an AEW and the exact same setup as Ida

3.) Another tropical wave that’ll roll off of Africa on Wednesday 8/24 or Thursday 8/25

Should have stopped that first sentence at "The GFS has been awful..." Yes, we're moving into the Cape Verde season, so we would expect stronger waves to move off the west coast of Africa, but be careful believing the long range GFS.

[ronjon]

Looks like the future 99l INVEST down in the NW Caribbean may finally bring some drought relief into north and east Texas. Long range models showing the moisture from the system combining with upper level energy from a front creating a QPF bullseye in northeast Texas with the Euro being the most aggressive with 5-10 inch totals.

[SFLcane]

[Kingarabian]

The GFS has been awfully consistent about a Gulf hurricane and two MDR hurricanes by September 1st over the last few runs. These are the disturbances to watch out for:

1.) A tropical wave that’ll move off of Africa between Friday 8/19 and Sunday 8/21

2.) Some disturbance, possibly a tropical wave, in the SW Caribbean around Tuesday 8/23. Either it’s the GFS’s typical bias in the region (random vorticity from Venezuela and not an actual source of genesis), or it’s an AEW and the exact same setup as Ida

3.) Another tropical wave that’ll roll off of Africa on Wednesday 8/24 or Thursday 8/25

Should have stopped that first sentence at "The GFS has been awful..." Yes, we're moving into the Cape Verde season, so we would expect stronger waves to move off the west coast of Africa, but be careful believing the long range GFS.

It's the GFS and the EPS. Specifically in the Atlantic, could say the GFS has been more conservative than the ECMWF products this season.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well, whatever happens, you can bet the GFS will show the most ridiculous scenarios first and the Euro will be the absolute last to show anything.

[Blown Away]

GFS is probably right on a hurricane or two developing in the next 16 days going into Sept, but the track will be all over the place 6-14 days out. 06z all over NE Caribbean & SFL, 12z could be 300 miles off CONUS in that same timeframe.

[psyclone]

GFS may be out to lunch...or not considering our proximity to 8-20 when things just seem to magically blossom. FL does seem due for one of those classic SE FL to western panhandle double taps.

[LarryWx]

https://i.postimg.cc/pd5W0R9v/xmas.gif

This 6Z GEFS replaces yesterday's 12Z GEFS as the most threatening run to date of the season to the US. It could still be off, but verbatim this is getting more worrisome. Also, the 6Z GFS is the 4th of the last 10 and second in a row with a H in the western Atlantic. Almost all of these modeled western basin hurricanes are from the AEW about to leave Africa.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS is weaker compared to the past 2 runs but its further south through 120 hours.

[SFLcane]

Lol, GFS of course drops it all together it seems.

[Kingarabian]

Lol, GFS of course drops it all together it seems.

No it's still there.

[SFLcane]

Lol, GFS of course drops it all together it seems.

No it's still there.

[lsuhurricane]

Lol, GFS of course drops it all together it seems.

This is a dangerous proposition with respect to traveling further west in the basin. 12z GFS doesn't drop it BTW.

[SouthFLTropics]

Year after year we see the same thing... I'd be more inclined to believe a scenario that shows slow development versus something blowing up right when it splashes down. Of course this doesn't bode well... Weaker and delayed development generally means tracking further west and into the danger zone.

[SFLcane]

Its surely much weaker this run looks closer to the euro.

[Kingarabian]

It's closer to 18z 8/15.

[Spacecoast]

Trend:.... lower latitude?, possibly avoiding the dry air blob.