2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1561334594888138754?s=20&t=e9eeNSbb9R-mn2LQscOSNg

Rapid development will make the slow start just another blip, but we are starting to cross into the head scratching zone. Right now this is relying on the models being somewhat accurate for the next 10 days. We will see.

The season posts are getting less jokey than they were a few weeks ago, and they are recognizing that something is off.

But as far as scientific quality, they are still a joke. No one is able to identify the problem, even those amateurs who are convinced they know the answer. This is what is so frustrating to this part of the season. We do not know how slow or fast the season will be, all we know is every year season cancel posts will increase until we get activity.

Yeah but these aren't season cancel posts, more in line with what you are saying, they know something appears off but they can't pinpoint what yet. It's not that we can't have a ramp up, but that unless things really start popping off, it's looking less likely that we'll have at minimum a hyperactive season which is what most were forecasting. These next two weeks are going to really define this season

[KWT]

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1561334594888138754?s=20&t=e9eeNSbb9R-mn2LQscOSNg

Rapid development will make the slow start just another blip, but we are starting to cross into the head scratching zone. Right now this is relying on the models being somewhat accurate for the next 10 days. We will see.

Yeah there is still a fair amount of time for things to ramp up. We've seen it countless time where it goes from dead to rampantly active in a 5-7 day period.

With that being said things are starting to run quite late, even by the standards of other slow starting seasons, such as 98 and 99. As I said in my last post though a hyperactive season is becoming less likely, though off course a mega active Sept or even Oct could still bring us into that realm of course. 1961 shows that things can really flip from very slow into hyperactive, and comfortably so.

[toad strangler]

The season posts are getting less jokey than they were a few weeks ago, and they are recognizing that something is off.

But as far as scientific quality, they are still a joke. No one is able to identify the problem, even those amateurs who are convinced they know the answer. This is what is so frustrating to this part of the season. We do not know how slow or fast the season will be, all we know is every year season cancel posts will increase until we get activity.

These next two weeks are going to really define this season

For me in south/central FL it’s the next 9 weeks. But I don’t care about seasonal forecasts verifying or busting. At all. Hoping nothing nestles under this foreboding general steering pattern in the near term.

[Category5Kaiju]

So an interesting thing to consider: so far this year, there have been 8 major strength cyclones anywhere in the globe. 5 of those (Batsirai, Emnati, Vernon, Gombe, and Halima) were in the SW Indian Ocean, 1 in the WPAC (Malakas), and 2 in the EPAC (Bonnie and Darby). No Category 5 strength storms so far. Now I think that latter point is extremely unusual. It's also been a while since the last year there was not a single storm of at least Category 4 strength that formed in August across anywhere in the world too; the strongest August storm globally so far seems to be Category 1 Howard.

We'll see how thing evolve going forward. Interesting times indeed, especially with the anemic total Northern Hemisphere ACE thus far.

[Ntxw]

So an interesting thing to consider: so far this year, there have been 8 major strength cyclones anywhere in the globe. 5 of those (Batsirai, Emnati, Vernon, Gombe, and Halima) were in the SW Indian Ocean, 1 in the WPAC (Malakas), and 2 in the EPAC (Bonnie and Darby). No Category 5 strength storms so far. Now I think that latter point is extremely unusual. It's also been a while since the last year there was not a single storm of at least Category 4 strength that formed in August across anywhere in the world too; the strongest August storm globally so far seems to be Category 1 Howard.

We'll see how thing evolve going forward. Interesting times indeed, especially with the anemic total Northern Hemisphere ACE thus far.

One would also think with the La Nina there would be some big cyclones in the far western WPAC around the MC (Philippines and SE Asia). Forcing is favored there in such events. Years like 2010 even then provided a storm like Megi. Storms have not sparked/intensified with CCKW/MJO passages like they normally would.

[aspen]

The sheer lack of activity in the Atlantic could partially be due to the Tonga eruption, or the lasting effects of the October 2021 shutdown. If the latter, that raises more questions than answers. What caused such a massive and sudden change in the base states across the NHem, where the WPac and NAtl struggle and the EPac sees abnormally high levels of activity?

[Category5Kaiju]

The sheer lack of activity in the Atlantic could partially be due to the Tonga eruption, or the lasting effects of the October 2021 shutdown. If the latter, that raises more questions than answers. What caused such a massive and sudden change in the base states across the NHem, where the WPac and NAtl struggle and the EPac sees abnormally high levels of activity?

The volcano theory is quite interesting, but at the same time, I agree, that would indeed raise more questions than answers. In 1991 when Mt. Pinatubo erupted, that did not stop the WPAC from generating a very active season, and in 1980 when Mt. St Helens erupted, that did not stop the Atlantic from generating 190 mph monster Allen. There were also a series of strong Andes volcanic eruptions in 2008 and 2011, both of which ended up being pretty active Atlantic years.

[LarryWx]

Below is the latest SAL analysis, this one as of 15Z/11 AM EDT today. Note that the weak low/wave at 26W is actually just to the SE of the SAL as the SAL stops near 28W within the MDR. What are the board's thoughts with regard to SAL as it pertains to this AEW near the CVs as well as other areas?

[aspen]

The sheer lack of activity in the Atlantic could partially be due to the Tonga eruption, or the lasting effects of the October 2021 shutdown. If the latter, that raises more questions than answers. What caused such a massive and sudden change in the base states across the NHem, where the WPac and NAtl struggle and the EPac sees abnormally high levels of activity?

The volcano theory is quite interesting, but at the same time, I agree, that would indeed raise more questions than answers. In 1991 when Mt. Pinatubo erupted, that did not stop the WPAC from generating a very active season, and in 1980 when Mt. St Helens erupted, that did not stop the Atlantic from generating 190 mph monster Allen. There were also a series of strong Andes volcanic eruptions in 2008 and 2011, both of which ended up being pretty active Atlantic years.

January’s Tonga eruption was different than all of those you mentioned. St Helens and Pinatubo were in the northern hemisphere, and those as well as Chaiten in 2008-2011 were land volcanoes. It’s possible Tonga, being an undersea SHem eruption, was able to impact the ocean/atmosphere in ways that other giant eruptions during the satellite era have not.

I can’t find any VEI estimates for the 2008-2011 Chaiten eruptions, but Pinatubo ‘91 was a VEI 6 and St Helens ‘80 was a 5. Estimates for Tonga ‘22 have varied between a 5 and a 6, although the amount of SO2 and aerosols ejected into the atmosphere is believed to be less than Pinatubo. Despite that, it’s estimated to have been the strongest explosion on Earth since Krakatoa ‘83, and even a tiny change in global temperatures from SO2 emissions could’ve had a snowball effect in global weather patterns. Nothing of this magnitude has occurred during the +AMO era or a triple-dip La Niña. Maybe certain types of ENSO states/configurations are more susceptible to volcanic forcing than others. There are just so many unknowns will all of this.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The sheer lack of activity in the Atlantic could partially be due to the Tonga eruption

The Tonga eruption was very unique in a couple of ways. First it was a solid VEI 6 which only happens one in a lifetime. Just for reference Mount St Helens was a low end VEI 5 (numbers are logarithmic). Second, the Tonga eruption did not contain a lot of s02 but was very high in water vapor. That water vapor pierced the Mesosphere (the only volcano in recorded time to do so at 36 miles up). The Mesosphere has almost no water vapor within it and scientists have theorized this large water injection could have a warming effect high up in the atmosphere. That could very well suppress ACE if the temperature gradient has changed.
(Tonga was originally thought to be a 5 but further study of the massive caldera left after the eruption made it a solid 6 bordering on 7)
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/image ... mesosphere

[MarioProtVI]

The sheer lack of activity in the Atlantic could partially be due to the Tonga eruption

The Tonga eruption was very unique in a couple of ways. First it was a solid VEI 6 which only happens one in a lifetime. Just for reference Mount St Helens was a low end VEI 5 (numbers are logarithmic). Second, the Tonga eruption did not contain a lot of s02 but was very high in water vapor. That water vapor pierced the Mesosphere (the only volcano in recorded time to do so at 36 miles up). The Mesosphere has almost no water vapor within it and scientists have theorized this large water injection could have a warming effect high up in the atmosphere. That could very well suppress ACE if the temperature gradient has changed.
(Tonga was originally thought to be a 5 but further study of the massive caldera left after the eruption made it a solid 6 bordering on 7)
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/image ... mesosphere

This is honestly the best theory as to why everything has been just anemic. With regards to the EPac it seems the only thing that’s been keeping it going is the Nino-like area of SSTAs near the coast of Ecuador and Columbia.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1557778760753086471

[Cpv17]

The sheer lack of activity in the Atlantic could partially be due to the Tonga eruption

The Tonga eruption was very unique in a couple of ways. First it was a solid VEI 6 which only happens one in a lifetime. Just for reference Mount St Helens was a low end VEI 5 (numbers are logarithmic). Second, the Tonga eruption did not contain a lot of s02 but was very high in water vapor. That water vapor pierced the Mesosphere (the only volcano in recorded time to do so at 36 miles up). The Mesosphere has almost no water vapor within it and scientists have theorized this large water injection could have a warming effect high up in the atmosphere. That could very well suppress ACE if the temperature gradient has changed.
(Tonga was originally thought to be a 5 but further study of the massive caldera left after the eruption made it a solid 6 bordering on 7)
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/image ... mesosphere

This is honestly the best theory as to why everything has been just anemic. With regards to the EPac it seems the only thing that’s been keeping it going is the Nino-like area of SSTAs near the coast of Ecuador and Columbia.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1557778760753086471?t=l0HVMsL6PgFNzU_HNFSHeg&s=19

So there’s a Niño and a Niña in the Pacific at the same time?

[skyline385]

This sums up our season well

 https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1561402937997496321




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[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/MasielloCameron/status/1561479076388511745

[AtlanticWind]

I believe its a combination of factors that has keep this season down to date.
AEW are coming off Africa a little too far north, the frequent SAL outbreaks,and
MJO not entirely favorable yet.

Even with a favorable backround state , too many negative factors have come together
to get peak season going so far.
I think this is just season to season variability that will always be hard to forecast in advance
and that will always make it difficult for pre season forecasts and lead to occasional busts.

That being said it it still early in the season and likely some of these factors will change
in September and I would not be suprised if we still have a pretty busy backloaded season. JMO.

[skyline385]

Papin explaining the source of the vorticity near Venezuela on the GFS

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561479456794894337





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[Ptarmigan]

The sheer lack of activity in the Atlantic could partially be due to the Tonga eruption, or the lasting effects of the October 2021 shutdown. If the latter, that raises more questions than answers. What caused such a massive and sudden change in the base states across the NHem, where the WPac and NAtl struggle and the EPac sees abnormally high levels of activity?

Interesting possibilities. The Hunga Ha'apai eruption happened underwater, unlike Pinatubo. The water vapor could be a factor. Pinatubo shot more dust into the atmosphere. 1991 and 1992 West and East Pacific season were very active.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... hemisphere
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... hemisphere
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... loc=global

Atlantic was not as active 1991, while 1992 was fairly active. 1991 and 1992 were active for the Pacific due to El Nino, which was a Modoki El Nino.

[Ptarmigan]

Papin explaining the source of the vorticity near Venezuela on the GFS

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561479456794894337?s=21&t=O0etCpSOc1FqmT5Az6OCiA


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Interesting about cold air from South America could impact the North Atlantic. Cold fronts from Antarctica have come to the Amazon and even cross the Equator.

A Southern Hemisphere cold front passage at the equator
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0_co_2.xml

Some observed characteristics of frontal systems in the Amazon Basin
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/d ... 2/met.1497

[skyline385]

Papin joining enhanced the wave-breaking theory for this season

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561566433791787008

[Teban54]

Papin joining enhanced the wave-breaking theory for this season

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561566433791787008?s=20&t=mgxjVDk3q1C7-QBsiMdIvg

The original tweet also mentions reduced shear forecast by models, which may suggest wavebreaking being less of a concern by end August.