2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

18z ICON again.

[skyline385]

GFS finally starting to catch the wave forming near SA, there has been a trend of increasing vorticity in the last few runs.

UPDATE: slams straight into the DR so that's the end of it for this run

UPDATE 2: managed to reform again after going through DR

[aspen]

The second wave was looking good on the 18z GFS for a bit…but then it suddenly fizzed out. Like that entire monsoon trough vorticity vanished.

[Hammy]

Part of me feels we should disregard the model output as far as the eastern MDR for now--there seems to be a lot of interaction expected between the current and next wave and likely confusing the models. If I remember correctly something similar happened in 2018 with Helene and Isaac's wave and both ended up developing in the end.

[Category5Kaiju]

Could somebody be so kind as to help me understand how many areas of interest in the coming days we should be looking at, at least the consistent ones? Between model runs sometimes I see zero AOIs that develop, sometimes it's 1, sometimes it's 2; I am genuinely confused

[BobHarlem]

This image shows something near Florida on the GFS Trying to get together, this actually comes from that South American cold surge feedback that the Icon is picking up, not the waves, although the first wave actually may catch up to this, it's really odd. I'm wondering if the icon possibility needs a lemon since it's only a 4 or 5 days out.

[Teban54]

Seems like 18z GFS merges the SA system (that ICON has been showing) and 90L near Cuba. The SA system becomes the dominant one, organizing into a TS just offshore SE FL, then almost scrapes NC as a Cat 1.

GFS continues to be bullish on a wave that emerges on 8/29, and makes it an OTS major this run. Keep in mind it showed the same to the two (or more) waves before it in previous runs, so idk how much we should trust it at this point.

[Spacecoast]

Seems like 18z GFS merges the SA system (that ICON has been showing) and 90L near Cuba. The SA system becomes the dominant one, organizing into a TS just offshore SE FL, then almost scrapes NC as a Cat 1.

GFS continues to be bullish on a wave that emerges on 8/29, and makes it an OTS major this run. Keep in mind it showed the same to the two (or more) waves before it in previous runs, so idk how much we should trust it at this point.

18z GEFS shows SA system (in red), 90L (black)


8/29 wave looks stronger, earlier than previous ens runs.

[gatorcane]

This image shows something near Florida on the GFS Trying to get together, this actually comes from that South American cold surge feedback that the Icon is picking up, not the waves, although the first wave actually may catch up to this, it's really odd. I'm wondering if the icon possibility needs a lemon since it's only a 4 or 5 days out.

https://i.imgur.com/Cqnew3s.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Jmzusyx.gif

It is always in the eternity range on the GFS it seems. Need to see it under a week (168 hours) and preferably under 5 days (120 hours).

[aspen]

The ICON’s SA storm is once again on the HWRF-P for 90L. A tad stronger this run, although still just TD strength.

[skyline385]

Feels like we have been seeing the flip just around the corner for days now so I went and compared to previous runs. And the results don't really look good. Check out today's EPS and GEFS a week out from that a few days ago, they are essentially the same. It seems even the ensembles have been constantly pushing back on the development for a few days now which is far from ideal. This is in addition to them constantly shifting around the source of development and the fact that ensembles a week out close to peak season and with tropical forcing should not look this barren.

[aspen]

Feels like we have been seeing the flip just around the corner for days now so I went and compared to previous runs. And the results don't really look good. Check out today's EPS and GEFS a week out from that a few days ago, they are essentially the same. It seems even the ensembles have been constantly pushing back on the development for a few days now which is far from ideal. This is in addition to them constantly shifting around the source of development and the fact that ensembles a week out close to peak season and with tropical forcing should not look this barren.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220823/7163dcc308f2ce4a4aee12334261d1c6.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220823/9e5ae82322ed95ecdc7a006ea8cc6253.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220823/d60de0baa4ad844e765ff20e597f1771.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220823/f58027a613fea32ce0be81fa5d57fc8a.jpg

The way things are going, it’ll be September 15th and we’ll still be waiting for the switch to flip, and the ensembles will look exactly the same. I’ll be shocked if we get to 10 or more named storms by the end of the season.

[Category5Kaiju]

I unfortunately am unsure if I have access to those plots, but what do those models depict for long-range activity in the WPAC and EPAC? Are the models not enthusiastic about future activity in those basins as well, because if so, then that would be actually odd

[skyline385]

I unfortunately am unsure if I have access to those plots, but what do those models depict for long-range activity in the WPAC and EPAC? Are the models not enthusiastic about future activity in those basins as well, because if so, then that would be actually odd

Both EPAC and WPAC have some activity in the long-range, WPAC more than the EPAC but hard to see a trend in the last few runs.

[lsuhurricane]

0z GFS really deepening the South American system on this run. Will be interesting to see it’s progression. Close to 999mb in 4 days

[skyline385]

0Z ICON not showing much of the SA system, runs it into DR

[AutoPenalti]

GFS heads west with the SA system

[Hammy]

0Z ICON not showing much of the SA system, runs it into DR

I ignored this model completely last year after spinning up repeated phantom systems (worse than the older CMC) but it really seems to be on the ball this year if this ends up forming.

[ElectricStorm]

996mb over Haiti at hour 201

[skyline385]

0Z ICON not showing much of the SA system, runs it into DR

I ignored this model completely last year after spinning up repeated phantom systems (worse than the older CMC) but it really seems to be on the ball this year if this ends up forming.

Yea its been pretty good this year. I think it was the first to detect PTC4 as well as the weak invest before it in the Gulf.