2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3081 Postby skyline385 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:46 am

LarryWx wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Just to add a little more to this, 1961 actually had a Cat 2 in mid-July. Meanwhile all we have had so far are two sloppy PTC systems which barely managed to reach TS status and a storm which formed inland for 12 hours lol.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


But to be fair, Bonnie's AEW was very impressive considering it was only late June. And folks were commenting on how it looked more like the heart of the MDR season rather than June then. Anyone can go back to the threads and see this to remind us how impressive the MDR was then.

True, Bonnie’s AEW was very impressive and we are still getting very good waves coming off the African coast. The problem right now seems to be that the Atlantic is killing off even the most favourable waves. And even Bonnie with how impressive it was only managed to form into something coherent right before crossing over into the EPAC. Back then we didn’t think much of it cause it was June but now its something to be looked at imo.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
4 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3082 Postby LarryWx » Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:47 am

toad strangler wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Just to add a little more to this, 1961 actually had a Cat 2 in mid-July. Meanwhile all we have had so far are two sloppy PTC systems which barely managed to reach TS status and a storm which formed inland for 12 hours lol.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


But to be fair, Bonnie's AEW was very impressive considering it was only late June. And folks were commenting on how it looked more like the heart of the MDR season rather than June then. Anyone can go back to the threads and see this to remind us how impressive the MDR was then.


This is true and there were many posts opining on how wicked the waves would be in August given that beast of a wave. :D It seems the tropics never behave like one would expect.


Ain't that the truth?! Here is one post right after the pre-Bonnie AEW became Invest 94L:

"Definitely an interesting wave for June. Probably will see Bonnie out of this but I think it's too early to see something crazy. Not a great sign of things to come though if the waves are already this good."
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Category5Kaiju
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4097
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
Location: Seattle

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3083 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:48 am

toad strangler wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Just to add a little more to this, 1961 actually had a Cat 2 in mid-July. Meanwhile all we have had so far are two sloppy PTC systems which barely managed to reach TS status and a storm which formed inland for 12 hours lol.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


But to be fair, Bonnie's AEW was very impressive considering it was only late June. And folks were commenting on how it looked more like the heart of the MDR season rather than June then. Anyone can go back to the threads and see this to remind us how impressive the MDR was then.


This is true and there were many posts opining on how wicked the waves would be in August given that beast of a wave. :D It seems the tropics never behave like one would expect.


With that being said, it would certainly give me a decent chuckle (not out of sadism but curiosity :D ) if this season ends up like one of those seasons that don't feature much impressive levels of activity overall, but there is that one storm that unexpectedly happens and blows up into a Cat 4 or 5 and causes the season to be defined by that one storm. Kind of like 1900, 1910, 1935, 1980, or 1992. It only takes one, right? 8-)
1 likes   
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5044
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3084 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:49 am

LarryWx wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
But to be fair, Bonnie's AEW was very impressive considering it was only late June. And folks were commenting on how it looked more like the heart of the MDR season rather than June then. Anyone can go back to the threads and see this to remind us how impressive the MDR was then.


This is true and there were many posts opining on how wicked the waves would be in August given that beast of a wave. :D It seems the tropics never behave like one would expect.


Ain't that the truth?! Here is one post right after the pre-Bonnie AEW became Invest 94L:

"Definitely an interesting wave for June. Probably will see Bonnie out of this but I think it's too early to see something crazy. Not a great sign of things to come though if the waves are already this good."

That's my post isn't it :lol: I remember posting something like that
2 likes   
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25

Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3085 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:51 am

This wave breaking pattern retrograding westward because of high latitude ridging will end at some point, there is no way it will go through early meteorological Autumn, IMO.
2 likes   

User avatar
DorkyMcDorkface
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 888
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
Location: Mid-Atlantic

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3086 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:55 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Could we go the whole season without a hurricane? Has that happened before?

Highly unlikely. I am almost 100% sure we will see some hurricanes this year. As to how many and where exactly the hotspot could be is up in the air. This season would really have to fall on its face in order to have absolutely zero storms reach at least 65kt.
5 likes   
Please note the thougths expressed by this account are solely those of the user and are from a hobbyist perspective. For more comprehensive analysis, consult an actual professional meteorologist or meteorology agency.


Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3087 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:01 am

NDG wrote:This wave breaking pattern retrograding westward because of high latitude ridging will end at some point, there is no way it will go through early meteorological Autumn, IMO.


With the way this season has gone so far, would you bet on that? :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3088 Postby skyline385 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:04 am

This entire thread is very interesting, sheds some light on current scenario

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1562071462101471234





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3089 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:09 am

0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3090 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:14 am

I think the issue here is that the PDO has been misjudged. A warm PDO enhances EPAC activity and can contribute to enhanced shear over parts of the Caribbean. I think the PDO's negative calculations from NOAA are wrong in some way. It's too bad Nate Mantua from JISAO stopped doing the PDO calculations, because I seriously doubt his values would be anywhere near this negative. Especially if there was a warm horseshoe present to some extent as we currently have. The Pacific NW resembles 2014-2016.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3091 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:16 am

0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3092 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:21 am

LarryWx wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Just to add a little more to this, 1961 actually had a Cat 2 in mid-July. Meanwhile all we have had so far are two sloppy PTC systems which barely managed to reach TS status and a storm which formed inland for 12 hours lol.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


But to be fair, Bonnie's AEW was very impressive considering it was only late June. And folks were commenting on how it looked more like the heart of the MDR season rather than June then. Anyone can go back to the threads and see this to remind us how impressive the MDR was then.

And if Bonnie’s wave was just a tad further north, it could’ve become a rare June Caribbean hurricane. It was just too close to South America for days to properly close off, but if it was further away and formed earlier, then opinions on this season would be a little different. The August drought and model pushback would still be a major talking point, but we wouldn’t be so far behind in ACE.
5 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Hurricane Mike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 644
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am

2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3093 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Aug 23, 2022 10:56 am

Septembers are very active in La Nina years, like 1998 or 1999 for example. I'm still not letting down my guard.
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4762
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3094 Postby psyclone » Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:14 am

The seasonal forecasting biz is going to take a devastating hit if this season is a bust after near universal bullishness. It's going to look like a slightly more sophisticated farmer's almanac. I'm reminded of 2006 when everyone was wildly ahead of themselves after 04 and 05 and it was a total flop.
4 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3095 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:18 am

Hurricane Mike wrote:Septembers are very active in La Nina years, like 1998 or 1999 for example. I'm still not letting down my guard.


Yeah plenty of examples out there of fairly sizeable La Nina Septs and Octobers as well come to mention it.

As I said before I do think a hyperactive season is becoming increasingly less likely now, I am surprised the ACE forecast model above still has a 29% chance of a hyper season, based on climatological chances I'd probably place it at no more than 10% now given past hyperactive seasons have usually started up by now, indeed the only season that I can find that was as slow as this one has been in terms of ACE by this point was 1961 (98/99 were definately slow, but by this point 98 had Bonnie peaking and Danielle adding to the ACE, 1999 had Bret as a major and Cindy was moving along in the E.Atlantic.

I think some people are going a little off the deep end mind you with expecting this season to be a very quiet one, we've seen seasons literally turn on a dime from slow to explosive (look back at 2017 for a good example of a start full of weak storms, followed by a huge blow out with Harvey,Irma,Jose and Maria) in a literally a 5-7 day period.

If we make it through to the 10th September and only get one weak storm, then there maybe a conversation to have about a below average season, but for now I think thats still about as likely as a hyperactive season is.
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3352
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3097 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:59 pm

I'm not implying it will happen, and I am fully aware of how quickly the Atlantic can "switch on", but if no storms develop between now and September 1st, it's going to be hard for me to see how this season becomes very active unless we have a 2020 style October.
5 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3098 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:13 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I'm not implying it will happen, and I am fully aware of how quickly the Atlantic can "switch on", but if no storms develop between now and September 1st, it's going to be hard for me to see how this season becomes very active unless we have a 2020 style October.


So you discount September 100%
Sounds reasonable.
not
3 likes   

SteveM
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 76
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:21 am

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3099 Postby SteveM » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:28 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I'm not implying it will happen, and I am fully aware of how quickly the Atlantic can "switch on", but if no storms develop between now and September 1st, it's going to be hard for me to see how this season becomes very active unless we have a 2020 style October.


So you discount September 100%
Sounds reasonable.
not


It seems reasonable to me. It's hard to contain an entire 'very active season' within one month even if that month is September.
4 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#3100 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:33 pm

SteveM wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I'm not implying it will happen, and I am fully aware of how quickly the Atlantic can "switch on", but if no storms develop between now and September 1st, it's going to be hard for me to see how this season becomes very active unless we have a 2020 style October.


So you discount September 100%
Sounds reasonable.
not


It seems reasonable to me. It's hard to contain an entire 'very active season' within one month even if that month is September.


I see now. You are ACE chasers. In that case I’d agree.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 51 guests