Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[SFLcane]

Ding, ding, ding….

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1563564557813321728

[Kingarabian]

NHC probably giving NCEP models a lot of weight here. But like Derek Ortt said and what some have alluded to over the past few days, the BOC phantom on the GFS is probably playing a role in it keeping this system weak. Unless the Euro comes in and drops it. Which i highly doubt it at this point.

Need the GFS on board so we don't have to keep waiting 12 hours for the CMC/Euro/UKMET to see the track evolution.

[Nimbus]

12Z GFS running.

Here's the break in the ridge that cause most models to slow this way down to almost a stall in the shorter term. I think. Grey lines are the 500mb heights.

https://i.imgur.com/B8KWSiN.png

There is a TUTT due north of the system now, hasn't dug south at all since this morning but it has been producing some light shear. Looks like the convection on the north side of the system is trying to wrap west and by tonight it may be able to wrap itself up a little better ~15N. There is also an ULL north of Hispaniola and I would assume a weak anticyclonic circulation would form between the two ULL's by tomorrow that will allow this system to become an invest?

[gatorcane]

00Z NASA model heading W to WNW at 240 hours:

[skyline385]

I really hope they figure out a way to fix the GFS’ Caribbean bias because at this point it’s affecting the tracks and official forecasts of actual systems which may be forming.


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[cycloneye]

12z UKMET develops.

[Craters]

00Z NASA model heading W to WNW at 240 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/631HgQNK/6b20f7c7-889c-313f-807c-9e3bb7293b00.png

Probably worthwhile to note that it doesn't have any indication of the GFS ghostcane in the Gulf, either. Just some batches of decent rainfall spread along the western Gulf coast.

[cycloneye]

10/40.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be generally favorable for some gradual development of
this system over the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[SFLcane]

10/40.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be generally favorable for some gradual development of
this system over the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Here we go… Strong wording from the nhc. Invest soon

[Category5Kaiju]

Is this system forecast to enter Hebert Box #1 as an intensifying system? From my understanding, Hebert Boxes are surprisingly good (though not 100% foolproof of course) indicators of whether or not a storm has a chance of hitting peninsular Florida as a potent hurricane

[skyline385]

Strong start to the Euro

[SFLcane]

Is this system forecast to enter Hebert Box #1 as an intensifying system? From my understanding, Hebert Boxes are surprisingly good (though not 100% foolproof of course) indicators of whether or not a storm has a chance of hitting peninsular Florida as a potent hurricane

Technically this applies going through Herbert box as a major hurricane.

[skyline385]

Is this system forecast to enter Hebert Box #1 as an intensifying system? From my understanding, Hebert Boxes are surprisingly good (though not 100% foolproof of course) indicators of whether or not a storm has a chance of hitting peninsular Florida as a potent hurricane

Technically this applies going through Herbert box as a major hurricane.

Also examples like Maria and Gilbert which go through the box but miss SFL exist as well.

[Spacecoast]

!2z GEFS: fwiw, it looks like some members get pulled N early (70-120 hrs) towards the brief ridge break.
Is consensus is that these GFS / GEFS runs are highly suspect due to the ghost on the left?

[LarryWx]

12z UKMET develops.

https://i.imgur.com/dX1Xx72.jpg

Forms 42 hours earlier than 0Z run.

[sma10]

These long "wait and see" trackers are intense stress tests.

This is a fairly common scenario that comes along: wave struggles with organizational and environmental conditions, then finds ideal conditions north of the islands under a ridge. Doesn't need that much time for it to really strengthen. We've seen this happen regularly over the years - usually doesn't end well for the Bahamas, but after that .. lots of unknowns

[toad strangler]

Is this system forecast to enter Hebert Box #1 as an intensifying system? From my understanding, Hebert Boxes are surprisingly good (though not 100% foolproof of course) indicators of whether or not a storm has a chance of hitting peninsular Florida as a potent hurricane

I consider the Hebert boxes old world meteorology.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yeah, we really do not need another Andrew at all. I mean it really cannot get much worse than that. Two major hurricane landfalls from one storm. Katrina also followed a similar path.

[jlauderdal]

Is this system forecast to enter Hebert Box #1 as an intensifying system? From my understanding, Hebert Boxes are surprisingly good (though not 100% foolproof of course) indicators of whether or not a storm has a chance of hitting peninsular Florida as a potent hurricane

I consider the Hebert boxes old world meteorology.

Why is that? Its just a benchmark...there is a 40/70 benchmark that is used for northeasters

[blp]

Ridge looks more stout.

12z


12zrun yesterday