2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[CyclonicFury]

It's kind of fascinating how the Atlantic followed a historically quiet late season with a historically quiet first half of the next season. It's been 327 days since the Atlantic basin last had a hurricane active - Sam became post-tropical on October 5 last season. I don't think the two seasons are particularly related, but it's a weird coincidence. The Atlantic won't stay dead forever.

[cane5]

91L might be the last straw signaling an active or inactive season. If it becomes something significant, it means the Atlantic isn’t that unfavorable and we could get a near to slightly above average season. If it stays weak or doesn’t develop at all, and nothing else stronger than a struggling weak to moderate TS develops in the next 1-2 weeks, then something is without question wrong with the basin and we’re probably getting a below-average season.

We are in a La Niña along with the fact that we are just beginning who knows maybe we get something crazy late October. And last year was quiet ..Ive got to think we South FLA are running out of luck Wilma is a distant memory and that was the last one to have any power. Irma was essentially a high grade Tropical storm.

[Hurricane2022]

It's been 327 days since the Atlantic basin last had a hurricane active - Sam became post-tropical on October 5 last season.

Interesting how I only realized this now

[Hammy]

It’s possible the rest of September gets shut out by Typhoon Hinnamnor. If it does recurve, it could enhance a TUTT like what Maysak and Haishen did in 2020, and unlike that year, there’s no super favorable base state to save this season from being sheared and dried out.

If the Atlantic is this unfavorable during a strong La Niña year, then we could be in for a near-record quiet season next year, since a neutral to warm ENSO (maybe even an El Niño) is by far the most likely outcome.

I seriously doubt this. First, its one typhoon, second, September cannot be shut out, especially in a la Nina. Another issue is that its near impossible to tell what ENSO state we will be in next year. just because I flipped heads 3 times in a row doesn't mean that I am more likely to flip tails on the next flip. Its a gross simplification of ENSO but its a good one.

Should’ve worded the first part better: I mean the rest of September in the MDR would get shut down by a typhoon-pumped TUTT. This season’s best shot might be in October when the ITCZ, in theory, should be in a favorable position to send waves into the Caribbean like 2020.

One typhoon would still not shut out the entire month in any part of the basin--at most it would lead to about a week or so of more unfavorable conditions

The years this was an issue had strong typhoon after strong typhoon so it was continuous

[canebeard]

Clogged arteries or circulatory issues? I'm getting a sense that there's more going on in the Atlantic then SAL mid-level moisture issues. Certainly, far beyond the extent of any displaced African monsoonal flow too. Two things about the current complex disturbance around 40W just have me perplexed. Accurate or not, models last night and into today are coming into better agreement for this disturbance. What I find baffling is the incredibly slow westerly progression of disturbances AND the clearly devoid equatorial southerly moisture feeding into these disturbances (or even establishing a reasonable semblance of the ITCZ period). No, this has nothing to do with TW's emerging off the African coast either too far north or too far south either. You want to blame it on the African monsoon, fine..... but to the extent that surface convergence from such a displacement would somehow continue to interrupt low level convergence all the way to 50W/60W? I beg the question because current models seem to suggest that very little deepening with our present disturbance will occur until reaching that point. Equally strange is the "October-like" westward motion that is SO out of character for late August. We've seen TUTT's, cut-off lows, and both sharp or shallow mid Atlantic troughs before but those have largely proven to be transitory. On the other hand, where seasonal long wave patterns have seemed to establish themselves over the Central or Western Atlantic, beyond the short-term COL that might occur between "end of ridge" and trough we would commonly see a more poleward acceleration of forward motion for most marginally established mid-level disturbances.

As for our present lab rat, the yet unclassified disturbance around 40W might well serve as a decent specimen to focus on regarding these (and other) atmospheric conditions that have been unexpectedly at play thus far this season. I am curious about seeing if an unusually weak low latitude surface pressure gradient is at play resulting in less surface inflow (thus much less convective activity). Even moreso, I am especially curious about some larger mitigating factor that seems to have interrupted the typical rich tropical moisture feed from the south that might be occurring in tandem with already identified mid-level dryness. We're used to seeing how some E. Caribbean storms or disturbances have been disrupted due to decreased surface convergence as a result of South America but this similar effect seems to be at play across a good deal of the basin.

As we quickly approach September 1st, it just seems that the science of better understanding and forecasting would be better served and a far better use of expending this season's Recon budget allocation, then repetitious recon flights into little to no landfall risk hurricanes just to verify whether they've crossed the Cat 2 threshold into "Major" hurricane threshold. "That" game of inches debate would drive some stat nurds crazy but honestly offers little to nothing toward better understanding climate pattern change, seasonal variations, causation or mitigating impact of conditions during an otherwise anticipated very active hurricane season, or potential near/mid-term landfall risk analysis or issuance of warnings.

[tolakram]

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

This chart is bugged, there's a post earlier showing the new chart under development. It's been bugged for well over 10 years.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1564059765927546887




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1564059771925368836




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1564059786865516544




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1564062863471296512

[canebeard]

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

This chart is bugged, there's a post earlier showing the new chart under development. It's been bugged for well over 10 years.

Would you please provide a website that displays the instability level across the Atlantic that is relatively reliable.

[skyline385]

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

This chart is bugged, there's a post earlier showing the new chart under development. It's been bugged for well over 10 years.

Would you please provide a website that displays the instability level across the Atlantic that is relatively reliable.

Here is the link to the new one currently in development which will use a 25-year climo. It was last updated around mid-August for 2022

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/~ ... _tat_THDV/

Here is the Twitter thread on it which i shared a few pages back.

 https://twitter.com/cslocumwx/status/1558203737038114818

[Deshaunrob17]

I keep seeing but the sub tropics are cool... Yes there is a cool pool but a good chunk of the subtropical is much warmer than normal

I remember pointing out the crazy warmth in the sub tropics in August. Definitely is causing stability issues. Additionally, 3rd year La Niña is probably contributing to unfavorable conditions.

[cycloneye]

The peak of the season is almost here and there are any signals that will turn active soon. Still waiting for the first hurricane of the 2022 season since the last one was Sam when it turned Post-Tropical on October 5 2021. Also, the ACE continues stucked at 2.8 units and the average keeps getting larger every day. (Today at 32.2)

[MarioProtVI]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1564318605965139971



 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1564319789463511043




At this point I’m just about ready to give up and say this season will never recover and we’re basically facing 2013 2.0. Something is seriously wrong in the Atlantic, mid-level dry air should not be this bad of a problem this close to peak season, and I think the Tonga eruption and SSTA configuration are significant reasons as to why. I think it’s becoming increasingly likely we reach the day of peak season (September 10) with no hurricanes or majors. Models are already backing off the 10/30 as well and it looks like it will get flung out into unfavorable conditions.

I feel sorry for the major forecasting agencies as I think it’s very likely they take an enormous hit at the end of the season, and CSU might even cease their forecasts (as they almost did following 2013’s horrible results).

[tolakram]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1564318605965139971?s=21&t=hVTzZzpfpKM3eDuuVZDy-Q
https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1564319789463511043?s=21&t=g2bmWkoSoXe3CZQBnxBE-A

At this point I’m just about ready to give up and say this season will never recover and we’re basically facing 2013 2.0. Something is seriously wrong in the Atlantic, mid-level dry air should not be this bad of a problem this close to peak season, and I think the Tonga eruption and SSTA configuration are significant reasons as to why. I think it’s becoming increasingly likely we reach the day of peak season (September 10) with no hurricanes or majors. Models are already backing off the 10/30 as well and it looks like it will get flung out into unfavorable conditions.

I feel sorry for the major forecasting agencies as I think it’s very likely they take an enormous hit at the end of the season, and CSU might even cease their forecasts (as they almost did following 2013’s horrible results).

I completely disagree and I think the very suggestion is absurd. If CSU was predicting something different form everyone else maybe, but unlike twit ... ers most professionals take the long view.

If Andy doesn't want to troll perhaps he can describe how this season is similar to 2013 other than low storm totals. Without that he IS trolling IMO.

[Deshaunrob17]

Wasn't the Atlantic supposed to wake up since July 20 ? ⏰

[wxman57]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1564318605965139971?s=21&t=hVTzZzpfpKM3eDuuVZDy-Q
https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1564319789463511043?s=21&t=g2bmWkoSoXe3CZQBnxBE-A

At this point I’m just about ready to give up and say this season will never recover and we’re basically facing 2013 2.0. Something is seriously wrong in the Atlantic, mid-level dry air should not be this bad of a problem this close to peak season, and I think the Tonga eruption and SSTA configuration are significant reasons as to why. I think it’s becoming increasingly likely we reach the day of peak season (September 10) with no hurricanes or majors. Models are already backing off the 10/30 as well and it looks like it will get flung out into unfavorable conditions.

I feel sorry for the major forecasting agencies as I think it’s very likely they take an enormous hit at the end of the season, and CSU might even cease their forecasts (as they almost did following 2013’s horrible results).

I completely disagree and I think the very suggestion is absurd. If CSU was predicting something different form everyone else maybe, but unlike twit ... ers most professionals take the long view.

If Andy doesn't want to troll perhaps he can describe how this season is similar to 2013 other than low storm totals. Without that he IS trolling IMO.

I've always viewed seasonal outlooks as an unactionable curiosity. Everyone wants to know the level of hurricane risk over the coming season, and they think that the predicted number of storms could be a clue. Clearly, we don't fully understand what's happening out there over the ocean. The West Pacific has been very quiet, too, ACE-wise, though Hinnamnor will produce a good amount. Was the Tonga eruption a factor? I don't know how it might affect the Northern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, I'm quite pleased at the lack of activity. Enjoying lots of days off.

[MarioProtVI]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1564318605965139971?s=21&t=hVTzZzpfpKM3eDuuVZDy-Q
https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1564319789463511043?s=21&t=g2bmWkoSoXe3CZQBnxBE-A

At this point I’m just about ready to give up and say this season will never recover and we’re basically facing 2013 2.0. Something is seriously wrong in the Atlantic, mid-level dry air should not be this bad of a problem this close to peak season, and I think the Tonga eruption and SSTA configuration are significant reasons as to why. I think it’s becoming increasingly likely we reach the day of peak season (September 10) with no hurricanes or majors. Models are already backing off the 10/30 as well and it looks like it will get flung out into unfavorable conditions.

I feel sorry for the major forecasting agencies as I think it’s very likely they take an enormous hit at the end of the season, and CSU might even cease their forecasts (as they almost did following 2013’s horrible results).

I completely disagree and I think the very suggestion is absurd. If CSU was predicting something different form everyone else maybe, but unlike twit ... ers most professionals take the long view.

If Andy doesn't want to troll perhaps he can describe how this season is similar to 2013 other than low storm totals. Without that he IS trolling IMO.

I've always viewed seasonal outlooks as an unactionable curiosity. Everyone wants to know the level of hurricane risk over the coming season, and they think that the predicted number of storms could be a clue. Clearly, we don't fully understand what's happening out there over the ocean. The West Pacific has been very quiet, too, ACE-wise, though Hinnamnor will produce a good amount. Was the Tonga eruption a factor? I don't know how it might affect the Northern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, I'm quite pleased at the lack of activity. Enjoying lots of days off.

Someone in here (I think aspen) said the eruption injected a ton of water vapor into the upper levels of the atmosphere (the mesosphere I think), which can then screw up temperature gradients. The SHem ended up very quiet and then it started occurring in the NHem too with the WPac and now Atlantic (no clue how the EPac prevailed a bit in July, but maybe the small +ENSO region anomalies helped). Plus, there’s been record heavy rainfall events globally this year (look at the last few weeks in the US for example), and it might start to make sense why everything is so off. A full analysis will have to be done post-season to see what exactly went wrong (regardless of what the final totals are because at this point I don’t know what they will be because of this inactivity in a La Niña).

[aspen]

I completely disagree and I think the very suggestion is absurd. If CSU was predicting something different form everyone else maybe, but unlike twit ... ers most professionals take the long view.

If Andy doesn't want to troll perhaps he can describe how this season is similar to 2013 other than low storm totals. Without that he IS trolling IMO.

I've always viewed seasonal outlooks as an unactionable curiosity. Everyone wants to know the level of hurricane risk over the coming season, and they think that the predicted number of storms could be a clue. Clearly, we don't fully understand what's happening out there over the ocean. The West Pacific has been very quiet, too, ACE-wise, though Hinnamnor will produce a good amount. Was the Tonga eruption a factor? I don't know how it might affect the Northern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, I'm quite pleased at the lack of activity. Enjoying lots of days off.

Someone in here (I think aspen) said the eruption injected a ton of water vapor into the upper levels of the atmosphere (the mesosphere I think), which can then screw up temperature gradients. The SHem ended up very quiet and then it started occurring in the NHem too with the WPac and now Atlantic (no clue how the EPac prevailed a bit in July, but maybe the small +ENSO region anomalies helped). Plus, there’s been record heavy rainfall events globally this year (look at the last few weeks in the US for example), and it might start to make sense why everything is so off. A full analysis will have to be done post-season to see what exactly went wrong (regardless of what the final totals are because at this point I don’t know what they will be because of this inactivity in a La Niña).

I think it was Imran who first posted about the Tonga eruption ejecting water vapor into the mesosphere. It’s the explanation I’m leaning towards just because everything else is so uncertain. Maybe this is just an unlucky combination of super warm subtropics and a third year La Niña? Such events happen so infrequently that we don’t have a ton of data to compare too. That also brings up a question as to why the global subtropics are broiling this year and whether or not it’s related to ENSO state, the Tonga eruption, or something else entirely.

Also if/when the Atlantic finally gets going, it’ll probably be a direct response to Wxman talking about how many days he’s had off lol.

[WiscoWx02]

I completely disagree and I think the very suggestion is absurd. If CSU was predicting something different form everyone else maybe, but unlike twit ... ers most professionals take the long view.

If Andy doesn't want to troll perhaps he can describe how this season is similar to 2013 other than low storm totals. Without that he IS trolling IMO.

I've always viewed seasonal outlooks as an unactionable curiosity. Everyone wants to know the level of hurricane risk over the coming season, and they think that the predicted number of storms could be a clue. Clearly, we don't fully understand what's happening out there over the ocean. The West Pacific has been very quiet, too, ACE-wise, though Hinnamnor will produce a good amount. Was the Tonga eruption a factor? I don't know how it might affect the Northern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, I'm quite pleased at the lack of activity. Enjoying lots of days off.

Someone in here (I think aspen) said the eruption injected a ton of water vapor into the upper levels of the atmosphere (the mesosphere I think), which can then screw up temperature gradients. The SHem ended up very quiet and then it started occurring in the NHem too with the WPac and now Atlantic (no clue how the EPac prevailed a bit in July, but maybe the small +ENSO region anomalies helped). Plus, there’s been record heavy rainfall events globally this year (look at the last few weeks in the US for example), and it might start to make sense why everything is so off. A full analysis will have to be done post-season to see what exactly went wrong (regardless of what the final totals are because at this point I don’t know what they will be because of this inactivity in a La Niña).

CSU will always be around to forecast. One hiccup wouldn't nor should it ever change that or over shadow how successful the team usually is. As for Andy...well he is wrong in a sense...this year isn't a repeat of 2013, it's even worse and looks to continue to be so at this point. Even in 2013 and most El Nino years we had more named storms and hurricanes by now.

[WiscoWx02]

 https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1564003170388512771




This honestly says so much....here we are in a favorable MJO pattern and have been for a while, the eastern Pacific has been dead, models drop every storm they initially try to develop, and we have now fallen behind many El Nino years, even 2015 with the super El Nino...this is just my thought and mine alone, I am not imposing this as fact, but IMO, the switch isn't going to flip given the conditions I discussed above. If what we have now hasn't flipped it yet, then what will?

[Category5Kaiju]

I tend to be a pretty bullish tracker, and future 91L will really be a curious demonstration. However, I do believe September will be a key month to watch. If nothing significant happens early to mid month, then I’m genuinely going to begin to question this season. Clearly, something must be extremely wrong for something like that to happen (let alone completely unexpected and unforeseen even to experts). However, considering how many recorded years in the past have not featured anything remotely like that (like with 0 Hs or NSs by peak season), I am still under the assumption that perhaps this year may end up not behaving like that. But for a La Niña year with a band of very warm tropical waters to flounder and sputter is going to require a TON of studies since that sort of bust would actually be strange considering we’re talking about how 2 of the most historically favorable-correlated factors still did not have the power to overcome whatever inhibitor factor or factors are out there in the basin this year.