ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

VDM has 988 mbs.

URNT12 KWBC 062238
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062022
A. 06/21:55:34Z
B. 24.28 deg N 065.78 deg W
C. 700 MB 2991 m
D. 988 mb
E. 355 deg 06 kt
F. OPEN SW - E
G. C40
H. 43 kt
I. 148 deg 26 nm 21:48:25Z
J. 236 deg 57 kt
K. 153 deg 47 nm 21:43:21Z
L. 71 kt
M. 333 deg 25 nm 22:01:26Z
N. 051 deg 73 kt
O. 332 deg 27 nm 22:02:03Z
P. 13 C / 2921 m
Q. 15 C / 2987 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 3 nm
U. NOAA3 1406A EARL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 73 KT 332 / 27 NM 22:02:03Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 141 / 18 NM FROM FL CNTR

[aspen]

80kt FL and 75kt SFMR this pass, with a nearly identical extrapolated pressure in the lower 980s.

[Iceresistance]

982.9 Extrapolated on pass #2, but there's a chance that it's lower at the next update.

EDIT: Nope! It's 982.9 MB extrapolated as the lowest.

[galaxy401]

Big pressure drop from those passes. Earl is probably a hurricane now.

[cycloneye]

Based on the data of the 2 passes, it should be upgraded at 8 PM.

[Teban54]

If the hurricane models are right, Earl should get over its dry air/collapsing convection problems later tomorrow and have an almost complete eyewall Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then it’ll start to RI. If Earl isn’t a mid-low 980s hurricane by tomorrow night and is still plagued by dry air being shoved into the core, then a major is looking less likely. So far, though, it has much of Thursday, all of Friday, and maybe the early parts of Saturday to intensify. Post-tropical transition will probably start Saturday and maybe complete as early as that night, or early Sunday.

Earl: "Why wait for tomorrow when you can do it today?"

[Iceresistance]

Dropsonde at the eye has 985 MB pressure. he's getting stronger faster!

[KirbyDude25]

Dropsonde at the eye has 985 MB pressure. he's getting stronger faster!

14 knots there too, so that's probably more like 983-984 mb. They haven't even sampled the NE quad, wonder what winds they'll find there

[Hammy]

Moving NNE based on the last two fixes, looks like it's really fighting back against the shear now with that visible north and west eyewall on satellite

[tolakram]

Looks like shear is really letting up now.

IR floater https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-13-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

...EARL BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2022 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 65.8W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

[InfernoFlameCat]

He is a hurricane! With this unexpected quick intensification, I wonder if it can perhaps hit Cat 4 in a couple days.

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

Looks like shear is really letting up now.

IR floater https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-13-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Glad they put up tropical storm warnings for Bermuda.
Although unlikely, a trough split shifts the track west enough to make Earl dangerous there.

[zzh]

[galaxy401]

^ Yeah that pass there really shows that Hurricane structure now. Wonder if Earl will RI once the shear lets up.

[Iceresistance]

I'm having a hard time believing this, but . . . Is Earl really going on RI or VRI?


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Dropsonde-24.png

[zzh]

Per the microwave Earl is still tilted

[InfernoFlameCat]

I'm having a hard time believing this, but . . . Is Earl really going on RI or VRI?

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Dropsonde-24.png
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Dropsonde-24.png

975mb? is that a hiccup? that should not be at 975 mb. what!

[aspen]

The hurricane models still show an ugly hurricane for the next 24-36 hours, so don’t be shocked if Earl is still pretty ragged by tomorrow morning. An eye isn’t modeled to pop out until sometime on Thursday, but it’s always possible Earl runs ahead of the models and shear diminishes quicker than expected.