ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#241 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:16 am

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#242 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:20 am

Shear is there, but not getting worse.

Image

source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=Z&time=

use -3hr, +3hr to see changes, zoom to zoom out
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#243 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:13 am

Center outrunning the convection which is getting sheared a bit.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#244 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:23 am

Image

Oddly enough, mid-level shear seems virtually zippo where Fiona currently is. There's just a bit of deep layer shear since it's riding along the periphery between favorable and unfavorable zones. I guarantee you that if it was a bit further south and right under that 5 knot deep layer shear spot, then we would have been seeing something rather different.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#245 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:29 am

kevin wrote:
Owasso wrote:SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

https://i.postimg.cc/NM7kx96z/D6-AA0097-AA30-46-C9-A70-F-2-E74-AF42-C203.png

Shifted to the south slightly.


Based on the cone it does not seem out of the question that Fiona could pass in between Puerto Rico and DR. In that case the islands could still get a lot of rain/wind, but Fiona's core might remain undisturbed and could thus intensify more than most models show right now.


Never use the 5-yr error cone for any impact predictions. It's meaningless for any storm. The cone represents only typical error over the past 5 seasons. It does not indicate any level of forecast certainty or uncertainty regarding the current storm, nor does it imply any impact region. Fiona will likely remain sheared as it passes through the NE Caribbean this weekend. As such, most, if not all, significant squalls and wind will be located northeast through southeast of the center. Don't expect too much near the center. This means the worst weather will occur after the center passes.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#246 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:42 am

Center exposed on visible

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#247 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 15, 2022 7:57 am

Image
Fiona's LLC getting a bit more exposed IMO and maybe a just S of West movement now?
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#248 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Sep 15, 2022 8:16 am

Definitely tilted, maybe on trying to de-couple the MLC if this keeps up . There is also still some mid level dry air upstream and another larger bit to the SW upstream that will certainly keep lid on things.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#249 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:24 am

Can really see the decoupling occurring in a wider visible loop. IMO we will continue to see the ensemble envelopes shift west today.

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#250 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:30 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/sUMytX8.gif
Fiona's LLC getting a bit more exposed IMO and maybe a just S of West movement now?


Per satellite loops, it at least appears to be moving ever so slightly south of due west vs the 5AM NHC's ever so slight north of due west. It may very well be as far south as 16.5 or possibly even 16.4 N now though sometimes the satellite suggested location doesn't match the actual. If it is at 16.4-5 N, that would be slightly south (by ~15 miles) of the 5 AM implied 16.6-7 N now. If that's true (although 15 miles may not seem like much), that would imply a slight southward track adjustment at 11AM.

 Other opinions on a likely 11 AM track adjustment?
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#251 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:33 am

LarryWx wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/sUMytX8.gif
Fiona's LLC getting a bit more exposed IMO and maybe a just S of West movement now?


Per satellite loops, it at least appears to be moving ever so slightly south of due west vs the 5AM NHC's ever so slight north of due west. It may very well be as far south as 16.5 or possibly even 16.4 N now though sometimes the satellite suggested location doesn't match the actual. If it is at 16.4-5 N, that would be slightly south (by ~15 miles) of the 5 AM implied 16.6-7 N now. If that's true (although 15 miles may not seem like much), that would imply a slight southward track adjustment at 11AM.

 Other opinions on a likely 11 AM track adjustment?


Don't see any adjustments at 11am but as the post above mentioned i also think we will see the models gradually trend west given the exposed llc.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#252 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:37 am

The outflow is almost perfect! :eek:

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https://s4.gifyu.com/images/tccapture.gif
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#253 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:41 am

SFLcane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/sUMytX8.gif
Fiona's LLC getting a bit more exposed IMO and maybe a just S of West movement now?


Per satellite loops, it at least appears to be moving ever so slightly south of due west vs the 5AM NHC's ever so slight north of due west. It may very well be as far south as 16.5 or possibly even 16.4 N now though sometimes the satellite suggested location doesn't match the actual. If it is at 16.4-5 N, that would be slightly south (by ~15 miles) of the 5 AM implied 16.6-7 N now. If that's true (although 15 miles may not seem like much), that would imply a slight southward track adjustment at 11AM.

 Other opinions on a likely 11 AM track adjustment?


Don't see any adjustments at 11am but as the post above mentioned i also think we will see the models gradually trend west given the exposed llc.


NHC Forecasts:
8am - 16.6N - Moving 270
5am - 16.6N - Moving 270
11pm - 16.7N - Moving 280
5pm - 16.8N - Moving 280
11am - 16.6N - Moving 280

Fiona has not gained latitude since the first advisory yesterday and has moved due W (270) since. ECENS trending way W, a track adjustment likely at 11am with full impact into Hispaniola and out into SE Bahamas as maybe a TD moving NW at day 5. My amateur guess.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#254 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:45 am


Yeah but it goes to show that shear is at the lower levels. So either the convection will start to chase the LLC or a new LLC will develop underneath it.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#255 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:51 am

I have no doubt Fiona will tighten up and become more vertically stacked as it slows down some when it gets to the Lesser Antilles.
Earl started intensifying as well under 25 knots of shear.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#256 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:52 am

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#257 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:57 am

11 AM NHC kept it at 16.6N (straight west since last advisory). 
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#258 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:59 am

Here's a plot of the latest NHC track (red) vs. consensus (TVCN) in blue. Looks like NHC may have one point a little too far south as it passes PR. Just a 0.1 deg north adjustment there would smooth out their track. Numbers are date/time (in CDT). They're staying right with consensus until it passes PR, then east of consensus. Their track is right on top of mine (which I didn't plot).

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#259 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:02 am

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#260 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:34 am

AF303 is about to take off for Fiona.
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