ATL: IAN - Models
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- chris_fit
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ATL: IAN - Models
Models here
Start off with 06Z GFS
00Z ECMF
Start off with 06Z GFS
00Z ECMF
Last edited by chris_fit on Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Compared to this morning (06z vs 00z), the ECMWF Ensemble spread is quite a bit higher for coming Monday. This indicates that an increasing number of members is showing (some) development of invest 98L. Most members pretty far southwest to be honest, almost going into Central-America.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Right on the line( I know don't focus on the line) beyond 7 days, we will take that solution and run with it for a few days and be happy. Wxman57 is on board with multiple model support, Galveston to the Outerbanks should start their gennys today. This is a gulf coast, Florida peninsula threat then as it pulls out up the east coast. I think we get one more major in October and the season goes at least two weeks longer than"normal". This setup is very dangerous and produces major hurricanes up to a 5 but way too early for intensity predictions other than to say the setup looks explosive.
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- Spacecoast
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Comparing 06z ECENS to 0z: More members south
(black square is 0z ECMF @ 144hrs)
06z HWRF:
(black square is 0z ECMF @ 144hrs)
06z HWRF:
Last edited by Spacecoast on Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Spacecoast wrote:Comparing 06z ECENSTO 0z: More members south
(black square is 0z ECMF @ 144hrs)
https://i.ibb.co/yVk7bCK/cfc.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/n7f3q3r/cfd.jpg
Yes ECMWF does not develop this wave much until the western caribbean. I do though think the gfs/gefs has this one pigged imo.
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Seems like pretty normal biases so far. GFS aggressive, Euro non-aggressive. CMC would be the best forecast until we see just how quickly 98L organizes. I continue to think a stronger short term for 98L probably means an Eastern Gulf (possibly FL Peninsula or east of there) track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
GFS a bit faster this run, and slightly weaker short term.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
20mbs weaker on this run vs 06z. Interestingly though, same positions between runs.
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
GFS back at it again with a major hurricane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Starts the northward turn right after Jamaica again. Might be a tad west this run due to lower strength. Although it seems like RI got it down a similar pressure as the last run as it approaches Cuba
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Based on the past 5 runs or so of the GFS, I think the wildcard is the trough over the east coast, after it passes Jamaica
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Its down to 944mb. lower than the previous run.
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- toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
This should end up west of 6z into the GOM
Last edited by toad strangler on Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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