ATL: IAN - Models

[sma10]

Updated 12z GEFS even further east.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pxm86h1Y/gefs.png

Looks like the farthest east members went even more to the east. Looks like more spread than before. We have a long way to go with this one.

Yes, long way to go. And attention to the models in short range: no model "blows this up" in the first 72-96 hours. It's not until around Jamaica that we can expect major intensification

[Fancy1001]

First HWRF weakens this back to a TD because of the Northerly Wind Shear by Fiona.

Pretty much the same as the GFS. This shear ablates in the day 4-5 range as an upper-level anticyclone begins to establish itself over 98L/Hermine. The end of the HWRF run should, in theory, show reorganization and intensification.

Bingo

[Frank P]

unless I'm reading this wrong the 12z EURO thru 144h is stronger 995mb, faster and NNW of the 00Z model run at 1005mb.

[LarryWx]

Updated 12z GEFS even further east.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pxm86h1Y/gefs.png

That's weird, the ensembles members are a bit west before SFL...

I thought the same thing. I took another look at the 12Z GEFS members and there are actually more strong members that hit FL north of Tampa vs the prior run. But they do that after hour 240, which doesn't show on this map. Regardless of whether north of Tampa or not, the Gulf coast of FL is the # target of the 12Z GEFS and it looks scary for them overall.

[Frank P]

euro 162h down to 986mb heading for west cuba and dropping

[LarryWx]

It appears to me that the 12Z Euro is headed toward the Gulf coast of FL, similar to the 12Z GEFS target area.

[Sambucol]

Updated 12z GEFS even further east.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pxm86h1Y/gefs.png

That's weird, the ensembles members are a bit west before SFL...

That would be because of a strong trough most likely.

Or a bad run?

[Frank P]

looks like another FL west gulf coast strike but we'll see shortly..

[jhpigott]

12z Euro NE of 00z at hour 192. Looks like it's heading toward FL's Big Bend

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92012&fh=6

[Spacecoast]

Updated 12z GEFS even further east.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pxm86h1Y/gefs.png

That's weird, the ensembles members are a bit west before SFL...

That would be because of a strong trough most likely.

500-hPA Trough Probability looks like 50%

[LarryWx]

A very dangerous track for Tampa on the 12Z Euro.

[Pelicane]

For some reason tropical tidbits and pivotal weather have a discrepancy at 216 hours. Pivotal drops this to 954 MB.

[BobHarlem]

[Steve]

I think the models will flip to an East Coast threat in a few days. Ensembles show this as a possibility.

They probably show plenty of possibilities. It could be east coast or Gulf. But when US, EU, German and Canadian all have a major surface low honed in somewhere in the basin in this part of the season that far away, pay attention. It’s more realistic to think there will be low pressure in the Caribbean than to think it’s going to do x or y. 8 or 9 days out, we have no idea - and that assumes something forms (which I’d say is a fairly good bet).

[Teban54]

The 12z Euro is basically a Hurricane Phoenix scenario for Tampa.

[Steve]

12z Euro NE of 00z at hour 192. Looks like it's heading toward FL's Big Bend

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92012&fh=6

That most likely would be a fading* storm track which is a better scenario than an intensifying one or one that is holding steady.

*unless it comes in south of the Big Bend*

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET at 144 hours is ~200 miles S of the 12Z Euro 144 position, which puts it ~100-150 miles NE of Honduras moving NW. The UKMET is often on the left side of the model consensus mean:



NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.9N 76.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2022 120 14.2N 77.4W 1004 26
0000UTC 26.09.2022 132 14.6N 79.0W 1003 27
1200UTC 26.09.2022 144 15.6N 80.6W 1002 31

[Stormcenter]

I personally don’t get excited about these model runs
until 5 days out. So much can change until we are there.

[SFLcane]

I have this " wilma " type vibe with 98L not so much intensity but track. We shall see

[underthwx]

The keys I think are the speed of 98L/Hermine and the trough incoming. There's strong support for a powerful trough coming down around the end of September.

If I may, I agree, with my limited knowledge and understanding, to me it just makes sense, a tropical system responding to the influence of a trough, and moving on a path accordingly, and I feel the models are displaying this.