ATL: IAN - Models

[Fancy1001]

'The center hasn't even formed yet' talk is quickly on its way to becoming null and void from here on out. In fact, this morning's scatterometer data (13Z-14Z) and satellite derived winds showed a pretty well-defined surface-850MB vorticity center that should have gone into the initialization of the 18Z model guidance, and I suspect it will be at least as well-defined in the upcoming 00Z runs. How well the model guidance initializes it is another matter, however we're at the point now where we have a decent LL center fix to work with.

So now it's off to the races.

[CronkPSU]

18Z GEFS

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_fh96-186.gif

what is going on with the storm once it hits florida, looks like a paintball and scatters all over the place before consolidating again when it hits the Atlantic

[SouthFLTropics]

Bigger takeaway on the 18z HWRF is the fact that it appears to be turning northeast during the final few frames.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gatorcane]

18Z Euro looks a bit stronger and a bit more north at 72 hours. The trough looks stronger too. Wonder if it continues on if it misses Florida to the east entirely? Keep in mind even if it barely misses to the east, there would be minimal impacts with Florida on “dry side” of storm. Bahamas not so much though.

[SFLcane]

Tcvn now almost to Fort Myers…00z

[shah83]

Crazy strong trough on that 18z Euro.

[ConvergenceZone]

18Z Euro looks a bit stronger and a bit more north at 72 hours. The trough looks stronger too. Wonder if it continues on if it misses Florida to the east entirely? Keep in mind even if it barely misses to the east, there would be minimal impacts with Florida on “dry side” of storm. Bahamas not so much though.

https://i.postimg.cc/3RGSxWB4/ec-fast-z500a-Norm-watl-4.png

Hmm, I wonder if this will be the run where it completely misses Florida?...I guess we will find out.......

[eastcoastFL]

18Z Euro looks a bit stronger and a bit more north at 72 hours. The trough looks stronger too. Wonder if it continues on if it misses Florida to the east entirely? Keep in mind even if it barely misses to the east, there would be minimal impacts with Florida on “dry side” of storm. Bahamas not so much though.

https://i.postimg.cc/3RGSxWB4/ec-fast-z500a-Norm-watl-4.png

Are there any models that are that Far East right now? Would it be weaker since it would spend less time over water and less time near the warmer spots around Cuba and Florida?

[SconnieCane]

18Z GEFS

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_fh96-186.gif

what is going on with the storm once it hits florida, looks like a paintball and scatters all over the place before consolidating again when it hits the Atlantic

That's an ensemble suite, all those low pressure centers are different members' tracks.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[gatorcane]

18Z Euro looks a bit stronger and a bit more north at 72 hours. The trough looks stronger too. Wonder if it continues on if it misses Florida to the east entirely? Keep in mind even if it barely misses to the east, there would be minimal impacts with Florida on “dry side” of storm. Bahamas not so much though.

https://i.postimg.cc/3RGSxWB4/ec-fast-z500a-Norm-watl-4.png

Are there any models that are that Far East right now? Would it be weaker since it would spend less time over water and less time near the warmer spots around Cuba and Florida?

Yes but only the lowly NAVGEM. It shows a weaker storm just missing Florida to the east. Usually you use the NAVGEM to figure out where the storm is not going. but oddly enough the Euro has been trending toward the NAVGEM.

[eastcoastFL]

18Z Euro looks a bit stronger and a bit more north at 72 hours. The trough looks stronger too. Wonder if it continues on if it misses Florida to the east entirely? Keep in mind even if it barely misses to the east, there would be minimal impacts with Florida on “dry side” of storm. Bahamas not so much though.

https://i.postimg.cc/3RGSxWB4/ec-fast-z500a-Norm-watl-4.png

Are there any models that are that Far East right now? Would it be weaker since it would spend less time over water and less time near the warmer spots around Cuba and Florida?

Yes but only the lowly NAVGEM. It shows a weaker storm just missing Florida to the east. Usually you use the NAVGEM to figure out where the storm is not going. but oddly enough the Euro has been trending toward the NAVGEM.

https://i.postimg.cc/4dGtpdGh/nvg10-sfc10m-120-go-mex.gif

Interesting, a stronger trough in this run looks like a player now. I wonder if that will continue in future runs. Would sure be nice for this to miss the peninsula.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro 18z a bit east again.

[LarryWx]

18Z EPS mean significantly SE of the 12Z EPS mean with the mean track now just off the SE tip of FL vs over S FL on the 12Z! Practically every track of the 51 18Z members is SE of Ft Myers! There are more tracks SE of FL than in S FL.

[gatorcane]

Euro 18z a bit east again.

And weaker. It would have to cross over the high Terrain of Cuba to reach Florida and also probably would miss Florida to the east.

Saved loop:

[gatorcane]

18Z EPS mean significantly SE of the 12Z EPS mean with the mean track now just off the SE tip of FL vs over S FL on the 12Z! Practically every track of the 51 18Z members is SE of Ft Myers! There are more tracks SE of FL than in S FL.

Wow this is some trough! Is it November?!? To think it could track east of Florida is not what I expected. We will know with tonight’s runs if it is a trend or just windshield wiping.

[Iceresistance]

18Z EPS mean significantly SE of the 12Z EPS mean with the mean track now just off the SE tip of FL vs over S FL on the 12Z! Practically every track of the 51 18Z members is SE of Ft Myers! There are more tracks SE of FL than in S FL.

Wow this is some trough! Is it November?!? To think it could track east of Florida is not going with climo that is for sure.

It seems like Winter wants to start early.

Does it seem like that the models either underestimate or overestimate the trough more often than not?

[Pelicane]

18z Euro Ensembles

[AxaltaRacing24]

18Z EPS mean significantly SE of the 12Z EPS mean with the mean track now just off the SE tip of FL vs over S FL on the 12Z! Practically every track of the 51 18Z members is SE of Ft Myers! There are more tracks SE of FL than in S FL.

Wow this is some trough! Is it November?!? To think it could track east of Florida is not what I expected. We will know with tonight’s runs if it is a trend or just windshield wiping.

My guess is that it is 65% trend and 35% windshield wiping. Irma's tracks did this too

[caneseddy]

18z Euro Ensembles
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdTZTx3WIAE1apI?format=png&name=medium

Interesting that the stronger members hit south Florida and weaker ones stay east

[toad strangler]

Euro 18z a bit east again.

And weaker. It would have to cross over the high Terrain of Cuba to reach Florida and also probably would miss Florida to the east.

Saved loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/y8F0xc4z/ecmwf-z850-vort-watl-fh0-90.gif

Quite a bit different than buying into the GFS west of FL solutions just 24 hours ago right gator? Perhaps you are learning that loyalty to a climo calendar isn’t bullet proof! We never stop learning!