ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Would the ABC Islands need a Tropical Storm Warning now? If so, they should pull the trigger on PTC 9 or TD 9.

[SFLcane]

Ok this is a TD folks!

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1573126076586496004

[REDHurricane]

Would the ABC Islands need a Tropical Storm Warning now? If so, they should pull the trigger on PTC 9 or TD 9.

Yep looks like it, just based on the previous PTCs this season I'm thinking they will definitely do it within the next few hours

[Keldeo1997]

I know some people on here like their Hebert box's

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1573137808566505472

[LARanger]

I know some people on here like their Hebert box's

New one on me, and I'm iffy on whether it's "a thing", but now I want to see something similar for Louisiana.

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone know when the next ASCAT pass is? The last one looked pretty close to being closed off.

[skyline385]

Should have atleast been a TD especially with the the Radar loop and the ASCAT pass from earlier




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[Aric Dunn]

All I have to say about this ( and well many other systems recently).....

" Can’t help but think NHC forecasters are delighted they’re not issuing PTC advisories on 98L tonight. Because that’s a 5-day forecast you’re really not ready to make."


darn those models.. just so indecisive....

[Beef Stew]

I’m in agreement that this is (or at least is imminently becoming) a TD. Thought we might see the NHC pull the trigger at 11 PM, but I guess we’ll have to wait a few hours. Best-track may end up reflecting this later on when revisions are made.

[Jr0d]

I didnt think it would be classified until Saturday but now am fairly certain this will at least be a TD tomorrow (Friday). With what appears to be a closed low, doubt PTC advisories will be needed. If this trend continues we might have a TD at 5am.

[TheHurricaneGod]

All I have to say about this ( and well many other systems recently).....

" Can’t help but think NHC forecasters are delighted they’re not issuing PTC advisories on 98L tonight. Because that’s a 5-day forecast you’re really not ready to make."


darn those models.. just so indecisive....

Hall & Oates - Out of Touch

[Poonwalker]

I think we will be skipping the TD status after the recon mission enters this. Fiona is picking up speed and exiting, shear should lessen, and that convection popping will only improve with Dmax coming. I reckon we will have a TS early morning.

[Aric Dunn]

I didnt think it would be classified until Saturday but now am fairly certain this will at least be a TD tomorrow (Friday). With what appears to be a closed low, doubt PTC advisories will be needed. If this trend continues we might have a TD at 5am.

I bet 57 will still say sunday/monday just because.

[stormhunter7]

I think all we are missing is a ground obs report or ship report? Radar velocity data might make this a TD as it passes by the Island. If the shear keeps up for next two days... This may be what keeps the system a little further south of potential track. Deep convection fires on SW side... Pulls the surface CoC to the SW. If the convection is this tall/cold now. Hang on to your hat, cus it's gonna be really interesting come Sunday/Monday... Or when it reaches the western Caribbean, IMO.

[Craters]

I know some people on here like their Hebert box's

New one on me, and I'm iffy on whether it's "a thing", but now I want to see something similar for Louisiana.

Ask and you shall receive, LARanger:



(I think the US boundaries are a little bit off...)

[skyline385]

All I have to say about this ( and well many other systems recently).....

" Can’t help but think NHC forecasters are delighted they’re not issuing PTC advisories on 98L tonight. Because that’s a 5-day forecast you’re really not ready to make."


darn those models.. just so indecisive....

And just as you said that, 0Z ICON decided to be west of previous runs

[Teban54]

All I have to say about this ( and well many other systems recently).....

" Can’t help but think NHC forecasters are delighted they’re not issuing PTC advisories on 98L tonight. Because that’s a 5-day forecast you’re really not ready to make."


darn those models.. just so indecisive....

And just as you said that, 0Z ICON decided to be west of previous runs

And significantly stronger too (966 mb at landfall). That's probably a result of the W track giving it more time to intensify.

Edit: Can a mod move this to the models thread? I didn't realize this is in the discussion thread.

[Aric Dunn]

All I have to say about this ( and well many other systems recently).....

" Can’t help but think NHC forecasters are delighted they’re not issuing PTC advisories on 98L tonight. Because that’s a 5-day forecast you’re really not ready to make."


darn those models.. just so indecisive....

And just as you said that, 0Z ICON decided to be west of previous runs

well I mean.. not that ICON is particularly reliable amongst the rest.. but earlier I said not to buy stock in the eastern solutions..

[Sciencerocks]