ATL: IAN - Models

[skyline385]

ICON 0Z

[caneseddy]

ICON 0Z

https://i.imgur.com/Bgupzxx.png

Darn almost same spot as 12z (Naples area)

[Keldeo1997]

The reason why SHIPS gives it a high chance for Rapid Intensification while in the NW Caribbean: well below 10 knots of shear, SSTs 30-31C, and moist environment.
I would be surprised if it becomes a Cat 3 before crossing Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/hagMD52.gif

What is the Site you got that from?

[crimi481]

Did I read "Englewood" ? I am on Lemon Bay. omg. Travels with Charlie -part 2?

[lsuhurricane]

ICON with a notable stall over the peninsula. Not good

[skyline385]

The reason why SHIPS gives it a high chance for Rapid Intensification while in the NW Caribbean: well below 10 knots of shear, SSTs 30-31C, and moist environment.
I would be surprised if it becomes a Cat 3 before crossing Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/hagMD52.gif

What is the Site you got that from?

weather.us, loads faster than TT for ICON during busy periods

[ncapps]

[quote="lsuhurricane"]ICON with a notable stall over the peninsula. Not good[/quote]

Brutal run for half the state. Hope the stall is wrong. Path seems plausible though.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like Euro staying fairly consistent last 3-4 runs which means its 500 mb pattern is pretty stable in the modeling. All eyes on the 00z suite tonight for better consensus.

The Euro SW/Southern Florida solution is really on its own right now save its ensembles. All other global and hurricane models including the UKMET are further up the peninsula into West-Central Florida even toward the Big Bend like the GFS/HWRF/HMON.

I bet the Euro will creep more north (left) over the next few runs unless 9 doesn’t get its act together and a weaker system would be on the right towards South Florida.

I think this is purely a difference in depth and persistence of the trough between the two big models. A weaker storm will be less influenced and would actually favor a more west track. Euro is insisting on a more robust trough through day 5 and 6 and even has a weaker storm being picked up by it. GFS is having trouble predicting the trough each run. Euro has been more consistent in that aspect but doesn’t necessarily mean it’s more “right”.

You’re correct that it doesn’t mean it’s “more right”.

[skyline385]

ICON gonna sink the peninsula

[tolakram]

0Z GFS running, no big change yet.

[otowntiger]

The 11 pm ticks right at the latitude of tampa bay. Offshore wind for them were that to verify. Ft Myers and charlotte harbor would get hosed with big surge & onshore flow. That turn is going to be key. Right side vs left side. crikey

That track also puts all of Orlando metro area just to the right of the center- the dirty side. Seems a lot like Charley but bigger and closer to Tampa and much less terrain to cross before getting to Orlando. Of course this is still 5 days away and will likely change multiple times.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

trend

[ncapps]

I haven't been following last few runs of GFS. But at ~48hr it still looks pretty far South...

Is this about what 18z had?

[eastcoastFL]

[tolakram]

trend

[tolakram]

[ncapps]

Appears to just graze tip of Cuba on this run. This isn't going to be good me thinks.

[Kat5]

Might stall further south.

[tolakram]