ATL: IAN - Models

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Gatos del Sol
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2101 Postby Gatos del Sol » Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:51 pm

NFLnut wrote:
Hurricane Mike wrote:Some of these models show 40 mb of weakening in six hours prior to landfall. That would be insane.


Quite a bit of shear in the northern GOM.


It’s that time of year when the dew points start to drop below 70F along the Northern Gulf. Overnight lows of 63F like we’re supposed to get next week are the sign the hurricane window is closing for the year more often than not.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2102 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:51 pm

What is the ICON model?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2103 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:54 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2104 Postby NFLnut » Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:56 pm

Gatos del Sol wrote:
NFLnut wrote:
Hurricane Mike wrote:Some of these models show 40 mb of weakening in six hours prior to landfall. That would be insane.


Quite a bit of shear in the northern GOM.


It’s that time of year when the dew points start to drop below 70F along the Northern Gulf. Overnight lows of 63F like we’re supposed to get next week are the sign the hurricane window is closing for the year more often than not.


Yep. And people earlier this week comparing this thing to Charley. I get it. The track appeared to be setting up .. BUT .. let's remember that Charley was a early/mid August storm. Here in late September, the setup is going to be different. Not saying in an all-things-perfect scenario it couldn't happen but over a month later, almost October, was going to be much more difficult.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2105 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:56 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2106 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:57 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2107 Postby skyline385 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:58 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2108 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:59 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2109 Postby AJC3 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:00 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:What is the ICON model?


The output you see posted here is from the ICON, which is short for the "ICOosahedral Nonhydrostatic" global weather model created and used by the German Weather Service (DWD).

It's not to be confused with the ICON (Intensity CONsensus) used by NHC.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2110 Postby ncapps » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:01 pm

Still heading out to GOM at 84hrs. Not seeing a huge shift to Euro.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2111 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:02 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2112 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:04 pm

The trough over the northeast US is skidaddled out. Wonder what will happen. Slow down?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2113 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:06 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2114 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:06 pm

That sound you just heard was a collective sigh of relief from the good folks down in far S. Florida (for the moment anyway)
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2115 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:06 pm



So at 96 hrs it looks like it’s still chugging towards the pan handle. Looks like it’s too far west for the trough to pull it NE. Seems it will be all about timing. If it has a bit of a faster approach and tad more east it could get snagged by the trough. But if it follows that more western path it’s not going to happen and it will just keep chugging north. That’s a hard one to forecast this far out with variables like that and the storm isn’t fully developed. Seems like a lot can still change here before we know for sure where it’s headed.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2116 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:07 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2117 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:09 pm

hmmmmm so a little bit east but mostly the same path it has taken the last two days....
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2118 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:09 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:The trough over the northeast US is skidaddled out. Wonder what will happen. Slow down?


That would be my guess. Slow to possible stall, followed by eratic west to WNW motion perhaps??
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2119 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:09 pm

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Re: ATL: IAN - Models

#2120 Postby StPeteMike » Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:10 pm

GFS is shaping up to be the outlier again with the 00z, everyone else is going back east.

Either GFS pulls an upset or it flops…. I’m going with the latter.
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