ATL: IAN - Models

[chaser1]

Suggesting model initiation errors?

[Pelicane]

GFS is way too aggressive with this short-term.

[skillz305]

HWRF 00z trending east compared to 18z so far

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/figueroa_ii/status/1573901033016795137




References: https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwpr ... mary.shtml

[NFLnut]

https://twitter.com/figueroa_ii/status/1573901033016795137

References: https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwpr ... mary.shtml

Just saw Derek post that. Yeah. Probably gonna have to dispense with this GFS run. It brings nothing new to the table and now's the time to start bringin' it!

[Stormcenter]

NHC does not mention that in their discussion so
I am skeptical if that is truly the case or not.

https://twitter.com/figueroa_ii/status/1573901033016795137

References: https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwpr ... mary.shtml

Just saw Derek post that. Yeah. Probably gonna have to dispense with this GFS run. It brings nothing new to the table and now's the time to start bringin' it!

[NFLnut]

NHC does not mention that in their discussion so
I am skeptical if that is truly the case or not.

Listed here:

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwpr ... mary.shtml

[sponger]

I think the CMC has the best handle on synoptics and the best chance of verifying. The Euro looks to fast and the GFS seems out to lunch. I will call Cedar Key or a few miles North!

[Blown Away]

Ukmet blue line. Port Charlotte.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aea86dfb6670422a921ad772941067af9047f9962cfd3679b09b57cb7d16197c.gif

00z Ukmet

[Chris_in_Tampa]

https://twitter.com/figueroa_ii/status/1573901033016795137

References: https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwpr ... mary.shtml

Just saw Derek post that. Yeah. Probably gonna have to dispense with this GFS run. It brings nothing new to the table and now's the time to start bringin' it!

Link:
https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwprod/realtime/

I don't know much about it, but for 18Z GFS:
https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwpr ... mary.shtml

raobf
Rawinsonde - fixed land (from TEMP or PILOT)
Hourly Count: 82
Monthly Average: 35

For 0Z GFS:
https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwpr ... mary.shtml

raobf
Rawinsonde - fixed land (from TEMP or PILOT)
Hourly Count: 592
Monthly Average: 601

So 18Z special I would assume went into 18Z GFS since on that chart the number sky rockets. Don't know.

0Z would have normal ones, so around average number. There are no special ones for those times.

Charts:

18Z:
https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwpr ... fs.020.gif
Only for 18Z on that chart, not other runs.

0Z:
https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwpr ... fs.019.gif
Only for 0Z on that chart, not other runs.



Admin status message from a few days ago:

NOUS42 KWNO 231356
ADMSDM

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1354Z FRI SEP 23 2022

The 12Z NCEP model production suite is currently running on time.

12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
71109/YZT - Purged temp/moisture 660-622mb...wet bulb effect
70026/BRW - 10142
70200/OME - 10142
70361/YAK - Short to 661mb
72214/TAE - 10148
72469/DNR - 10159
76595/CUN - 10142
78970/POS - 10142


SPECIAL SOUNDINGS IN SUPPORT OF TD 9...
Special 06Z/18Z soundings have been requested starting ASAP for:
TAE, JAX, TBW, MFL, EYW.

Special 06Z/18Z soundings have been requested starting 18Z
Saturday for:
-All Eastern Region sites
-All Southern Region sites, excluding EPZ and ABQ
-The following Central Region sites: BIS, UNR, ABR, LBF, OAX,
DDC, TOP, SGF, ILX, DVN, MPX, INL, GRB


CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
CWD is not currently in effect. However, NCEP continues to
closely monitor and assess the need for CWD with Hurricane Fiona
moving into Atlantic Canada this weekend and TD Nine possibly
tracking into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.



Gerhardt/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Direct link to single message:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=SDM

Link to last 50 on one page:
https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/status/messages/

[NFLnut]

Euro is Cat 1 at 72 hrs when NHC has it at Cat 4. I didn't look at GFS last run but it can't be that much stronger at 72 to make NHC pump this up so much? Seems with the terribly disorganized storm at this point that they made need to drop their intensities. Unless if it bombs the next 24 hours.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro 72 is only barely N of the 18Z Euro 78.

[Teban54]

Euro is Cat 1 at 72 hrs when NHC has it at Cat 4. I didn't look at GFS last run but it can't be that much stronger at 72 to make NHC pump this up so much? Seems with the terribly disorganized storm at this point that they made need to drop their intensities. Unless if it bombs the next 24 hours.

Euro has a significant weak bias and almost always underdoes intensity. It should not be used for intensity forecasts verbatim (nor should most global models in general).

[AtlanticWind]

Euro into Tampa at 96 hours, still huge difference with GFS

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro landfall just S of Tampa at 96.

[chris_fit]

00Z Euro slightly faster and S/E of 12Z and 18Z - Seems to go more inland

[Blown Away]

00z ECMWF… Holds serve, landfall just south of Tampa and SE shift from 12z…

[Cat5James]

Not liking the extreme slowdown over FL after hour 96

[NDG]

Euro is sticking to its landfall near Tampa Bay, if anything it trended a little east. Hope residents along the west coast of FL from Tampa Bay on south didn’t let their guards down.

[chris_fit]

00Z CMC