ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[redingtonbeach]

I'm certainly no Met but it appears to me that the GFS ensembles initialized the latest run south (20 - 30 miles?) of the verified position. Of course, is there a TRUE verified position yet may be the real question. On the other hand, the Euro initialized its run significantly closer to the "verified" position.


GFS


Euro

That said, if we assume the GFS initialized too far south, then should one also assume the GFS track may also be too far west at 24/48/72 hours AND too slow?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1573969937688940544

[Ivanhater]

Ian is pretty far south of the official track and on the southern edge of model guidance. Interesting to see if that continues

[Iceresistance]

Ian is pretty far south of the official track and on the southern edge of model guidance. Interesting to see if that continues

This might allow Ian to RI with more time over water. Someone put out a tweet saying that the divergence is not stacked, which is why Ian is not organizing very well at this moment.

[MBryant]

Just a little early morning reflection. Storms like this are needed to help understanding of the process of development of tropical systems. I remember in the early seventies how a storm with two apparent eyes threw everyone in a tizzy because we did not understand centers were not fixed, but dynamic. We shall learn from a system where there is uncertainty.

That said, it is interesting watching a system with the same name as my oldest son.

[otowntiger]

Ian is pretty far south of the official track and on the southern edge of model guidance. Interesting to see if that continues

This might allow Ian to RI with more time over water. Someone put out a tweet saying that the divergence is not stacked, which is why Ian is not organizing very well at this moment.

A big question is why isn’t it stacked? Is whatever keeping it from organizing and stacking currently in this supposedly conducive environment going to continue over the next few days, thereby possibly keeping it from ever significantly intensifying? Who knows? We can hope. Stranger things have certainly happened.

[Iceresistance]

Ian is pretty far south of the official track and on the southern edge of model guidance. Interesting to see if that continues

This might allow Ian to RI with more time over water. Someone put out a tweet saying that the divergence is not stacked, which is why Ian is not organizing very well at this moment.

A big question is why isn’t it stacked? Is whatever keeping it from organizing and stacking currently in this supposedly conducive environment going to continue over the next few days, thereby possibly keeping it from ever significantly intensifying? Who knows? We can hope. Stranger things have certainly happened.

Apparently, it's the low level winds that is unfavorable, but its not going to take much to stack Ian and really get it going.

Also want to mention that the system is currently in an area with low OHC.

[cycloneye]

NOAA plane found a center around 13.5N.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573969695178465280

Strange how this is in the most favorable environment of any storm this season, and yet it’s the only one to struggle with low-level divergence. None of the models picked this up.

[Frank P]

Ian appears to be expanding in size this morning

[Nimbus]

Ian is pretty far south of the official track and on the southern edge of model guidance. Interesting to see if that continues

Looks a little slower in forward speed as well, Euro wants to race this northwest but its beginning to look like the child left behind.

[tropicwatch]

NOAA plane found a center around 13.5N.

https://i.imgur.com/4MIhPCe.png

No windshift to the east yet.

[Frank P]

Hard to discern any center at 13.5 looking at the latest sat loops

[cycloneye]

Hard to discern any center at 13.5 looking at the latest sat loops

Must be a eddy.

[3090]

NOAA plane found a center around 13.5N.

https://i.imgur.com/4MIhPCe.png

I knew late last evening it was not near the 14N latitude.

[3090]

Hard to discern any center at 13.5 looking at the latest sat loops

From an infrared image?

[3090]

Ian appears to be expanding in size this morning

https://i.ibb.co/RTcq8CR/73055-FC7-A12-B-47-DF-9515-60-CEBE1-E1-E03.gif

Look at the WV imagery and it certainly appears so.

[aspen]

Possible center at 14.7N/79.3W, pressure 1000 mbar.

[Airboy]

Looks like the pressure maybe down to maybe 1002 mb at least from Kermit (1000 mb reported, but NOA flights always report a bit too low I think). So looks like it maybe have started to get it's act together.

[cycloneye]

Bingo= 999 mbs at 14.8N.