ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

lol

 http://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1574093964768075781

[Hurrilurker]

So here's what we heard from just about everybody in church today (this is in DeSoto County, btw).

"It's going to the Panhandle now."

"It's going to Tampa."

"It's going north of Tampa. We're out of the cone."

"It's going to fizzle out in the Gulf."

"It's not coming here"

"It's going to the east coast."

"It's just going to be a little wind and rain. No big deal."



My point? TWC and other "officials" definitely need to do a better job of educating the public. They OBVIOUSLY hear a partial - something - spoken, maybe ONCE and then latch onto it.

LOTS of disinformation bouncing around here today, and it could cost lots of people dearly.

But most of those things ARE actually still possible at this point, depending on location. Even the NHC can't rule any out yet. Not sure about TWC, but NHC and many other outlets do constantly remind to not take anything as set in stone and keep watching for the latest updates. But some people are, sorry, just dumb, and sometimes just get busy with life and don't pay as much attention as they should. Not sure there's an easy way to solve that.

[Poonwalker]

My wife's family all lives up in Pinellas, we need to give them a call too. We lived in Seminole before we moved to the Fort Myers area in '97. I know there's a lot of high spots in Pinellas, especially along the ridge from about Bellair down through south Seminole, maybe elsewhere too, but with massive surge forecasts it's tricky. Where we are now in Lee county just about everything west of US41 is in a flood/surge zone with few exceptions.

I use this surge site that shows inundation above ground: https://cera.coastalrisk.live/ . Use the drop-down to show the latest advisory.The NHC used to have one on their storm graphics page, not sure where it went.

She’s going to likely have no power for days and streets if Tampa takes even a close approach from the west. I would consider going inland or even south inland if this trend keeps up. Rent a hotel if needed. It’s going to be a tough call for a lot of people unfortunately. We should have a better idea of impact areas by tomorrow morning if that leaves you the time needed.

I live near the higher area of Belleair. I'll be high and dry but everything else around me will be flooded.
Hopefully theyre stocked up. Got my generator, charcoal, water, beer and Kayaks so good to go. Lost power for 6 days each for Frances and Jeanne and 5 days for Irma.

Nice area. Iam just south of you in Seminole. Thurston groves off ridge rd. High and dry for me too.

[sponger]

Remember, the 5pm NHC forecast was already east of TVCN (which had a drastic west shift at that time). I think they didn't want to make a huge shift at 5pm, and they're just catching up at 11pm.

Also, while convection is a bit anemic now, I think it might just be a pulse down phase. IIRC, one of Eta or Iota (I can't remember which) was almost devoid of convection at one point.

As wxman pointed out earlier nhc is likely to follow the tvcn as a safe bet, which I imagine holds even more true about n times of uncertainty like this. I have hunch the 0z models will start pushing back east, and if they do the nhc will adjust, but I really don’t want to bet on anything at this point. My personal unofficial view is that still that Sarasota to the big bend should be on high alert, but I’d much rather leave decisive statements to the people who do this for a living.

So here's what we heard from just about everybody in church today (this is in DeSoto County, btw).

"It's going to the Panhandle now."

"It's going to Tampa."

"It's going north of Tampa. We're out of the cone."

"It's going to fizzle out in the Gulf."

"It's not coming here"

"It's going to the east coast."

"It's just going to be a little wind and rain. No big deal."



My point? TWC and other "officials" definitely need to do a better job of educating the public. They OBVIOUSLY hear a partial - something - spoken, maybe ONCE and then latch onto it.

LOTS of disinformation bouncing around here today, and it could cost lots of people dearly.

Even after telling you that Wal-mart and other stores are PACKED and they are out of water and gas and other things, they STILL insist there's no threat.

Funny! While emptying my garage yesterday, my neighbor told me it was going to Mobile! I figured substantial changes but came in to a arm pit of Fl! Euro was dialed in early. Game on! AS for preps, boarding is a bear and if you do not have back up power, a hotel reservation in SE FL that that has same day cancellations up to six pm is a great idea...NOW!

[somethingfunny]

Remember, the 5pm NHC forecast was already east of TVCN (which had a drastic west shift at that time). I think they didn't want to make a huge shift at 5pm, and they're just catching up at 11pm.

Also, while convection is a bit anemic now, I think it might just be a pulse down phase. IIRC, one of Eta or Iota (I can't remember which) was almost devoid of convection at one point.

As wxman pointed out earlier nhc is likely to follow the tvcn as a safe bet, which I imagine holds even more true about n times of uncertainty like this. I have hunch the 0z models will start pushing back east, and if they do the nhc will adjust, but I really don’t want to bet on anything at this point. My personal unofficial view is that still that Sarasota to the big bend should be on high alert, but I’d much rather leave decisive statements to the people who do this for a living.

So here's what we heard from just about everybody in church today (this is in DeSoto County, btw).

"It's going to the Panhandle now."

"It's going to Tampa."

"It's going north of Tampa. We're out of the cone."

"It's going to fizzle out in the Gulf."

"It's not coming here"

"It's going to the east coast."

"It's just going to be a little wind and rain. No big deal."



My point? TWC and other "officials" definitely need to do a better job of educating the public. They OBVIOUSLY hear a partial - something - spoken, maybe ONCE and then latch onto it.

LOTS of disinformation bouncing around here today, and it could cost lots of people dearly.

Even after telling you that Wal-mart and other stores are PACKED and they are out of water and gas and other things, they STILL insist there's no threat.

It's really pretty remarkable that nobody in your group of Floridians would just say "It's too early to know yet". Everyone's got a personal prediction they're attached to for pride's sake, rather than embracing the uncertainty and acting decisively to mitigate their potential risk.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574043337165676544?t=rdDkfxI173tgdGYvAmOtzA&s=19
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574045180541300736?t=va5MiNUxqaSeYp4JNNkf9A&s=19
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574057672898330625?t=0mjNEgs7BwOVxPquzIEjjg&s=19
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1574079140826910722?t=VpK4DPVp5W03QUo3t_LFDA&s=19

Seems like different formative TCs organize/intensify in different ways in seemingly similar environments. Some fire -80C hot towers at will but there's no LLC underneath them. Ian has the structural organization but the convection isn't there.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Yeah not every tropical cyclone in the same environment behaves exactly the same way. In fact, I recall watching timelapse videos of Wilma as it intensified, and when it was early and still a TS at one point it looked like a very disorganized blob of clouds. Who would know that that would eventually become a 882 mbar beast several days later?

The point here is that there's some pretty strong evidence that the environment Ian is in or will be in has scientifically verified capacities to really charge up systems. It may be hiccuping now, but with virtually untapped, 29-31 C waters in its path as well as low shear, I think Ian certainly has the potential to become something pretty nasty down the road. It's not like it will run out of time due to heavy land interactions anytime soon either.

[ncapps]

When should I fly out of Miami if I want to avoid flying through a hurricane? Friday AM? Currently my flight is scheduled for Thur AM but this looks like really bad timing to get back west.

I'm flying back to Colorado so hoping they'd route to south across the Gulf as opposed to the normal panhandle flight path.

Thank you.

[birdwomn]

Remember, the 5pm NHC forecast was already east of TVCN (which had a drastic west shift at that time). I think they didn't want to make a huge shift at 5pm, and they're just catching up at 11pm.

Also, while convection is a bit anemic now, I think it might just be a pulse down phase. IIRC, one of Eta or Iota (I can't remember which) was almost devoid of convection at one point.

As wxman pointed out earlier nhc is likely to follow the tvcn as a safe bet, which I imagine holds even more true about n times of uncertainty like this. I have hunch the 0z models will start pushing back east, and if they do the nhc will adjust, but I really don’t want to bet on anything at this point. My personal unofficial view is that still that Sarasota to the big bend should be on high alert, but I’d much rather leave decisive statements to the people who do this for a living.

So here's what we heard from just about everybody in church today (this is in DeSoto County, btw).

"It's going to the Panhandle now."

"It's going to Tampa."

"It's going north of Tampa. We're out of the cone."

"It's going to fizzle out in the Gulf."

"It's not coming here"

"It's going to the east coast."

"It's just going to be a little wind and rain. No big deal."



My point? TWC and other "officials" definitely need to do a better job of educating the public. They OBVIOUSLY hear a partial - something - spoken, maybe ONCE and then latch onto it.

LOTS of disinformation bouncing around here today, and it could cost lots of people dearly.

Even after telling you that Wal-mart and other stores are PACKED and they are out of water and gas and other things, they STILL insist there's no threat.

Just goes to show that people will believe what they want to believe, regardless of reality and true information.

[Iceresistance]

NOAA9 Mission #10 into IAN
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

On the way!

[cycloneye]

NOAA9 Mission #10 into IAN
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

On the way!

That is the gulfstream jet that flys to the upper atmosphere.

[jlauderdal]

When should I fly out of Miami if I want to avoid flying through a hurricane? Friday AM? Currently my flight is scheduled for Thur AM but this looks like really bad timing to get back west.

I'm flying back to Colorado so hoping they'd route to south across the Gulf as opposed to the normal panhandle flight path.

Thank you.

You will be fine leaving thurs morning

[Jelmergraaff]

Is it just me or is visible satellite hinting towards an eye developing (near 15.7N, 80W)?

[tropicwatch]

Looking like most of Florida is going to feel the rain.

[cheezyWXguy]

So here's what we heard from just about everybody in church today (this is in DeSoto County, btw).

"It's going to the Panhandle now."

"It's going to Tampa."

"It's going north of Tampa. We're out of the cone."

"It's going to fizzle out in the Gulf."

"It's not coming here"

"It's going to the east coast."

"It's just going to be a little wind and rain. No big deal."



My point? TWC and other "officials" definitely need to do a better job of educating the public. They OBVIOUSLY hear a partial - something - spoken, maybe ONCE and then latch onto it.

LOTS of disinformation bouncing around here today, and it could cost lots of people dearly.

But most of those things ARE actually still possible at this point, depending on location. Even the NHC can't rule any out yet. Not sure about TWC, but NHC and many other outlets do constantly remind to not take anything as set in stone and keep watching for the latest updates. But some people are, sorry, just dumb, and sometimes just get busy with life and don't pay as much attention as they should. Not sure there's an easy way to solve that.

I’d fully agree with your comment if the bolded portion were excluded. While it’s tautologically true that “some people are dumb”, being intelligent shouldn’t be a prerequisite for doing what is needed to survive a storm like this in today’s society. Sometimes death is inevitable, like if there’s an ef5 tornado and no underground shelters, and sometimes there are tricky situations with competing priorities that are more difficult in the moment than they might be to outside observers. For the latter, and any other situations outside the unavoidable, the onus is on the educators to provide a concise and consistent message that can be understood by the entirety of the affected public. As you acknowledge this is incredibly difficult. The NHC does a great job as the source of the message, but the relayers of the message on tv have a lot of improvement to make. It’s unfortunate and frustrating, but I’m optimistic for the future, especially when we look back and see the improvements over time

[galaxy401]

Is it just me or is visible satellite hinting towards an eye developing (near 15.7N, 80W)?

That just looks like the exposed center starting to tuck under the convection. Though it hasn't done a convective burst yet, there is much more moisture around Ian now.

[zeehag]

My thoughts on putting up temporary shutters (wood, aluminum, metal) based on my own personal experience.

Since we don't use them very often, they are probably stored in a place not easily accessible (have to move things around to get to them and place them by the windows/doors);
Do you have all the materials necessary to put them up: tools, hardware, ladder, at least one helper preferably with extra tools;
Are you going to be dealing with rain & wind when you put them up? Rain is a hassle, wind is a problem if you're holding up a 6' tall panel.

So consider the above, and add whatever time it has taken you in the past to put them up - you have put them up in the past to make sure they fit, etc.?

my house n mazatlan is nowhere near water unfortunately but has built in metal shutters for security reasons and placed long before my arrival here.. they areblack and solid and donot remove.. these open wide for bright sun and stay nicely set open. can close easily for canes or whatever security reason was imagined on installation. these could be placed in all homes without major cost..is a shame that so many in cane danger zones donot think of using this kind of security against storms. they allow regular window usage and close easily and reopen as easliy. kids can do it. shame usa has not figured this out.

[Michele B]

As wxman pointed out earlier nhc is likely to follow the tvcn as a safe bet, which I imagine holds even more true about n times of uncertainty like this. I have hunch the 0z models will start pushing back east, and if they do the nhc will adjust, but I really don’t want to bet on anything at this point. My personal unofficial view is that still that Sarasota to the big bend should be on high alert, but I’d much rather leave decisive statements to the people who do this for a living.

So here's what we heard from just about everybody in church today (this is in DeSoto County, btw).

"It's going to the Panhandle now."

"It's going to Tampa."

"It's going north of Tampa. We're out of the cone."

"It's going to fizzle out in the Gulf."

"It's not coming here"

"It's going to the east coast."

"It's just going to be a little wind and rain. No big deal."



My point? TWC and other "officials" definitely need to do a better job of educating the public. They OBVIOUSLY hear a partial - something - spoken, maybe ONCE and then latch onto it.

LOTS of disinformation bouncing around here today, and it could cost lots of people dearly.

Even after telling you that Wal-mart and other stores are PACKED and they are out of water and gas and other things, they STILL insist there's no threat.

Just goes to show that people will believe what they want to believe, regardless of reality and true information.

That's what I took away from it!

I finally just quit trying to explain anything to any of them!

[Jelmergraaff]

Although it may not be an actual eye, somehow Ian looks rather impressive on satellite the last frames. I think Ian is (almost) ready to take off.

[Iceresistance]

NOAA9 Mission #10 into IAN
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

On the way!

That is the gulfstream jet that flys to the upper atmosphere.

Oh, I see now. So that now brings up the question of when we get a Low-Level Recon plane coming into Ian.

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1574101151338926084