ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop 989/13, that supports the NHC's 988

[Teban54]

There's a blob of recon data missing on TT:

Did the 60 kt upgrade come from this (meaning they weren't transmitted to the public for some reason), or was it based on the assumption that stronger winds are in the NE quad?

Edit: The missing data is up now. 62 kt FL, but SFMR lower than earlier. So probably the latter.

[Craters]

Dang. I'm looking at the long-wave IR loop on COD, and I can't tell that Ian is moving at ALL. Wow.

Guess I'm not very tight with long-wave IR radiation or something...

[d3v123]

I really thought I’d have more clarity on this storm/the track by tonight, but I guess that just won’t be the case

[ElectricStorm]

Extrap 985 this pass, hurricane force FL winds in E quad but SFMR hasn't caught up

[Teban54]

Extrap 988, so not much different from the last mission. Interesting that the FL winds on the N/NW side are pretty weak this pass

Tentatively, I’m not so sure. It looks like they just missed the center, judging by the sfmr not dropping below 10kt and immediately shooting back up. I’m tempted to think it’s similar to that second pass they did on the last flight where it looked like the pressure rose. But if the next pass shows a similar pressure then I concede.

Edit: another reason the pressure may be valid is that winds in the nw quad are very unimpressive. The asymmetry of the wind field suggests Ian still has some kinks to work out

Looks like the low NW quad may be because the eyewall is open there.

The first VDM also shows a C36 eye, much larger than the 15 nm eye from the last mission.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop 986/13, supports 985

[Jelmergraaff]

Extrap 985 this pass, hurricane force FL winds in E quad but SFMR hasn't caught up

Eye drop had 986mb with 13kt.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1574288201547747329

[Landy]

Hurricane. 65kt/985mb

AL, 09, 2022092606, , BEST, 0, 177N, 817W, 65, 985, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

[cheezyWXguy]

Hurricane. 65kt/985mb

AL, 09, 2022092606, , BEST, 0, 177N, 817W, 65, 985, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

Woah, didn’t think they’d upgrade on it just yet. 71kt FL technically gets it there, but sfmr hasn’t quite caught up.

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane. 65kt/985mb

AL, 09, 2022092606, , BEST, 0, 177N, 817W, 65, 985, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

Woah, didn’t think they’d upgrade on it just yet. 71kt FL technically gets it there, but sfmr hasn’t quite caught up.

I am a bit surprised too given the SFMR. A blend of the data is 60 kt.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Another thing to watch out for is the tornado threat, a couple slight risks up from SPC.

Tues 9/27



Wed 9/28

[Hurrilurker]

I don’t understand how they have TS watch up for south FL but no watches or warnings up for central FL. Shouldn’t there be at least a TS if not H watch for the whole FL West coast by now?

[AtlanticWind]

I don’t understand how they have TS watch up for south FL but no watches or warnings up for central FL. Shouldn’t there be at least a TS if not H watch for the whole FL West coast by now?

There will be later this morning,, watches and warnings will be issued as the storm moves north.

[Jr0d]

I don’t understand how they have TS watch up for south FL but no watches or warnings up for central FL. Shouldn’t there be at least a TS if not H watch for the whole FL West coast by now?

I would figure the would err on the side of caution and give the lower Florida Keys hurricane warning, upper Keys TStorm warnings but as of 11pm the lower Keys are under a tropical storm warning.

While my location bias certainly is a factor, only a couple of wobbles right and Key West will be getting hurricane conditions.

[canebeard]

Interlocking band eye forming? Overall cloud orientation becoming south-north: indicating northward motion soon?

[Bocadude85]

Interlocking band eye forming? Overall cloud orientation becoming south-north: indicating northward motion soon?

If you look at the last recon fixes the center was moving a little more north of northwest

[hipshot]

Extrap 988, so not much different from the last mission. Interesting that the FL winds on the N/NW side are pretty weak this pass

Tentatively, I’m not so sure. It looks like they just missed the center, judging by the sfmr not dropping below 10kt and immediately shooting back up. I’m tempted to think it’s similar to that second pass they did on the last flight where it looked like the pressure rose. But if the next pass shows a similar pressure then I concede.

Edit: another reason the pressure may be valid is that winds in the nw quad are very unimpressive. The asymmetry of the wind field suggests Ian still has some kinks to work out

Looks like the low NW quad may be because the eyewall is open there.

The first VDM also shows a C36 eye, much larger than the 15 nm eye from the last mission.

What's a C36 eye?