ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Zonacane]

Ian with a classic buzzsaw

[InfernoFlameCat]

Dude, seriously?

Let me clarify, it is not showing dual rotating hot towers while clearing out an eye. Also, it has more feeder bands than any other hurricane that I can think of ATM. It also has been pulsing in convection and intensifying in its earlier stages with stratiform low level convergence. Its just strange to me.

In spite of the issues you have with appearance, Ian is still steadily intensifying. Currently, Ian appears to be undergoing an ERC

I think its intensifying, its just not doing it like other hurricanes have, IE a steady CDO that shrimps before busting out an eye. Ian has shrimped at least twice, but still has no clear eye.

[tolakram]

[MJGarrison]

I’m sure its different for all storms, but at what intensity do storms (under normal circumstances) clear out an eye?


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[Zonacane]

Let me clarify, it is not showing dual rotating hot towers while clearing out an eye. Also, it has more feeder bands than any other hurricane that I can think of ATM. It also has been pulsing in convection and intensifying in its earlier stages with stratiform low level convergence. Its just strange to me.

In spite of the issues you have with appearance, Ian is still steadily intensifying. Currently, Ian appears to be undergoing an ERC

I think its intensifying, its just not doing it like other hurricanes have, IE a steady CDO that shrimps before busting out an eye. Ian has shrimped at least twice, but still has no clear eye.

Ian will clear an eye out soon enough. Still plenty of time

[Zonacane]

I’m sure its different for all storms, but at what intensity do storms (under normal circumstances) clear out an eye?


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Category 4.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I’m sure its different for all storms, but at what intensity do storms (under normal circumstances) clear out an eye?


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75-90 knots for hurricanes in the tropics is when they start to. in the subtropics near any intensity is fair game. IE Gaston at 35 knots.

[TallyTracker]

I don’t think there are multiple eyeballs currently. The spiral banding is giving that impression but the eye is just cloud-filled and not fully closed. Looks like Ian’s getting it’s act together though and gonna pound Cuba pretty hard.

[wx98]

I’m sure its different for all storms, but at what intensity do storms (under normal circumstances) clear out an eye?


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Category 4.

That's not necessarily true. Many storms clear out eyes at Cat 1 or 2.

[Nimbus]

Isn't that front digging a lot further south into Louisiana than predicted

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

See the upper low in the water vapor loop moving into NY state?
That 995 low was well depicted over the great Lakes for the 12Z Euro run same initial position for the GFS.
Isobar lines are about 1016 near LA with the 1023 high centered over the midwest moving in to replace the trough.

[Iceresistance]

NOAA3 is having intermittent signal to us right now.

[Zonacane]

I’m sure its different for all storms, but at what intensity do storms (under normal circumstances) clear out an eye?


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Category 4.

That's not necessarily true. Many storms clear out eyes at Cat 1 or 2.

Well, it depends on the location and structure of the storm, but typically category 4 is when the eye fully clears out and becomes cloudless.

[tolakram]

[jlauderdal]

I don't think the outflow can get any better than this.

It will when the trough gets closer

I think Patricia had the best outflow ever. Trough enhanced outflow is the most favorable. If Ian got Poleward and Equatorial outflow, it would be ventilating better.

Checkout images of typhoon tip if ouflow is your thing

[Hammy]

We have constant radar coverage now so we don't need to guess at what the satellite appearance means. Eye is clearly there but still somewhat fractured, and no signs of double eyewall or ERC.

[Zonacane]

We have constant radar coverage now so we don't need to guess at what the satellite appearance means. Eye is clearly there but still somewhat fractured, and no signs of double eyewall or ERC.

https://i.imgur.com/2TsapfZ.png
https://i.imgur.com/7qQoGKh.png

No sign of double maxima on recon as of yet either.

[sbcc]

We have constant radar coverage now so we don't need to guess at what the satellite appearance means. Eye is clearly there but still somewhat fractured, and no signs of double eyewall or ERC.

Right, and on both sides of the storm, easy to rule in or out any attenuation issues. Looks the same on both radars.

ETA: holy cow, I'm having fat finger issues with the quote tags, sorry. Fixed now.

[Iceresistance]

Holy crap!


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/recon_NOAA3-1709A-IAN_dropsonde4_20220926-2203.png

[tolakram]

No comm during center pass, this is the other side.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Looks like due N on the Cayman radar.