ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yankee Corn Husker]

AF301

Eye Character: Open in the west
Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
Inner Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
Outer Eye Diameter: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)

GCANE,

Wait a second - How can the "Inner Eye" have a greater diameter than the "Outer Eye"? Should that not be reversed?

[Hammy]

Looks like the NOAA plane is already done, that was a pretty short mission. AF plane still in there though

They're always short. I sometimes wonder why they even waste their time. All the AF planes get 4-5 passes in this range.

NOAA planes gather data for research that goes beyond what AF missions gather--the latter are there for real time data reporting

[wx98]

That outflow is sure something


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL092022/GEOCOLOR/20222691710-20222692240-GOES16-ABI-AL092022-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

Looks like upper-level winds streaming across the Gulf and doing three things:
1) Knocking the top off random thunderstorms near the Yucatan.
2) Enhancing the outflow of Ian.
3) Trying to encourage Ian to turn more northward now.

Does anyone agree/disagree?

[GCANE]

The EURO model 18z just shows ian pulling thru central florida. oh god.

Gotta believe it based on what recon is reporting

[GCANE]

AF301

Eye Character: Open in the west
Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
Inner Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
Outer Eye Diameter: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)

GCANE,
typo
Wait a second - How can the "Inner Eye" have a greater diameter than the "Outer Eye"? Should that not be reversed?

Likely a slip from them

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Just technical FYI - "cooling" is the word you're looking for, as the darker reds represent colder cloud tops.

I think he literally means the storm’s warm core, not the cloud tops

Correct - thanks

My apologizes. I misread the context of your post.

[Teban54]

Can someone explain what Ian's eye is doing? It seems to me that almost every theory someone suggested here has been debunked at some point.

[AutoPenalti]

I would assume they have to consider TS watches and warnings for metro broward at least if these shifts continue?

[GCANE]

I think he literally means the storm’s warm core, not the cloud tops

Correct - thanks

My apologizes. I misread the context of your post.

No problem at all.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1574554069674622976

[SFLcane]

I would assume they have to consider TS watches and warnings for metro broward at least if these shifts continue?

Surely!

[Yankee Corn Husker]

The EURO model 18z just shows ian pulling thru central florida. oh god.

Gotta believe it based on what recon is reporting

Wasn't it Wxman98 who many pages ago was certain this monster was gonna plow a path through the center of South Florida? Based on this new course, looks like his "gut" feeling may have been correct all along.

[ElectricStorm]

Looking at the Cayman radar, the eye appears to be getting better defined and it looks like one eyewall now rather than concentric. I would think the pressure will continue to drop until it reaches Cuba. We'll see if the winds will be able to start mixing down

[psyclone]

Very possible, all it would take is the trough coming in stronger than the models expect and Ian coming in south and continuing NE through Orlando and out the Atlantic similar to a Charley track. In fact models like HMON and UKMet and Icon show this. All the surge and worst winds are avoided for Tampa Bay if it comes in south. Of course, then Sarasota, Port Charlotte and Ft. Myers are in major trouble.

Tampa bay will find a way to get out of this....like they always do...Right?

Yeah. all we need is some more ticks south and east. As you can see from my location I live in the bay area. the paranoia and prep here thus far is not commensurate with the gravity of the forecast (my anecdote). Batteries and water are available and traffic this evening was light and l live close to a major evacuation route. This may totally change tomorrow depending on Ian's development and subsequent tracks so we'll see...

[cheezyWXguy]

Can someone explain what Ian's eye is doing? It seems to me that almost every theory someone suggested here has been debunked at some point.

I don’t think anyone can lol, unless one of the pro Mets wants to chime in. Regardless, I think we all need to take a step back from the microtrends.

Also, recon center fixes shouldn’t be taken at face value as the true center. Sometimes they’re right on the money, but often times they miss by a little, as we’ve seen periodically with Ian. This can lead to misjudgments of movement. I think I remember wxman talking about this way back. Best to use as an approximation and leave it to the NHC to get particular.

[Aric Dunn]

After a N/NNW wobble. it now appears to wobbling back the other way.. stair stepping.

[GCANE]

Just looked at 200mb vort at CIMSS.
Ian is pushing back the PV streamers to its west, making room for longer term intensification.

[Teban54]

Radar link: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[ElectricStorm]

09L IAN 220927 0000 20.8N 83.3W ATL 85 965

[GCANE]

A few more frames on IR might show an eye come thru,