ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Current 500mb view


850mb

[eastcoastFL]

The "tropical storm conditions possible" for Thursday has now updated by the local NWS office to "Hurricane conditions possible" here.

Guess it could get interesting here on the Space Coast.

Im a bit to your south on the treasure coast. Our tropical storm conditions possible has been going away and coming back every other update since Saturday. Now it’s back. Not expecting much here other than a lot of rain and breezy squalls. You guys might be in for some heavy stuff if it crosses the state.

[caneman]

It's likely gonna turn due north within the next 2-3 hours. If it doesn't, the latest model runs will all be off.

The Euro is off already. It had it at 83 on the North Cuba coast and it's already at 83.4

18z Euro is doing fine, has it on the spot per the latest recon fix.

https://i.imgur.com/wMTqSwu.gif

That isn't the point. You posted a link earlier and it had it at 83 post Cuba. It's 83.4 now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like intensification has halted for the time being, most recent pass is up 1mb

Pressure has leveled for the time being, but every other metric is up. The wind field has symmetrized dramatically since earlier this evening.

[Sanibel]

Just spent the last few hours pulling save-ables up into the house from the ground-level garage that is tucked under it...We are on 13 foot pilings by code at the ground level...


That leaves just tomorrow to do a triage for things that will leave with me in the cars...


This might be the big one for Sanibel...We might finally get the bad surge-er we've been spared up to now...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[psyclone]

Just spent the last few hours pulling save-ables up into the house from the ground-level garage that is tucked under it...We are on 13 foot pilings by code at the ground level...


That leaves just tomorrow to do a triage for things that will leave with me in the cars...


This might be the big one for Sanibel...We might finally get the bad surge-er we've been spared up to now...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

You guys are a couple of east shifts from a major escalation

[eastcoastFL]

[cheezyWXguy]

Should note the eye we’re seeing on IR is only the eastern half. The western half is still underneath convection, so that probably accounts for the discrepancy we’re seeing between IR and radar

[Poonwalker]

Definitely a clear bend back more towards the NNW motion. which will take it over the western tip. will be just left of 11p track in a hour or two.

https://i.ibb.co/0BV3sfx/ezgif-com-gif-maker-58.gif

18z Euro showed it nicely dancing around the Isle of Youth then head straight north after passing to the west of the Island, then a hint of NNE after that.

Yeah. I looked at it again and I might be seeing the wobbles which has me projecting. I still think the Cuba passage location is key for the models. If they still show a direct hit on Tampa after that I might be packing up and leaving.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sanibel]

Today, an electrician took about 15 minutes to fix the electric feed to the upstairs window hurricane shutter and I got it to roll down...That was a load off my mind because that could have been the one window that let the hurricane in and took the roof...I fixed the french door electric shutter on the wind face on the back porch Wednesday and installed the steel brace anchor plates myself...

[wx98]

Extrapolated pressure is down again and SFMR now supports 95 kt/110 mph.

[CrazyC83]

Extrapolated pressure is down again and SFMR now supports 95 kt/110 mph.

On its own it supports 100 kt, but I'd want to check to see if other data can back it up. But yes, 95 kt seems reasonable.

[bahamaswx]

Starting to look a bit stretched North-South. Doubt we see much more westerly motion.

[Aric Dunn]

Hopefully, Recon stays out for another pass or two.. becuase Ian is starting to really bomb out..

[GeneratorPower]

Should note the eye we’re seeing on IR is only the eastern half. The western half is still underneath convection, so that probably accounts for the discrepancy we’re seeing between IR and radar

Just use Key West radar. It’s in range.

[AdamFirst]

Today, an electrician took about 15 minutes to fix the electric feed to the upstairs window hurricane shutter and I got it to roll down...That was a load off my mind because that could have been the one window that let the hurricane in and took the roof...I fixed the french door electric shutter on the wind face on the back porch Wednesday and installed the steel brace anchor plates myself...

I saw in another post that you're evacuating. Best of luck to you, brother.

[CryHavoc]

Hopefully, Recon stays out for another pass or two.. becuase Ian is starting to really bomb out..

https://i.ibb.co/2YN00CQ/ezgif-com-gif-maker-59.gif

Gotta say it seems like it wobbled more west of North in those last few frames.

[FLpanhandle91]

Southern eyewall supports cat 3.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd go with 95 knots, MSLP 959 mb based on that last pass. I'd like to see flight level winds up a bit before going with MH but should be one in short order.