ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

Its kinda funny that after all the flip-flopping by the models, the actual CONUS landfall will end up being very close to the first NHC cone.

[Teban54]

Its kinda funny that after all the flip-flopping by the models, the actual CONUS landfall will end up being very close to the first NHC cone.

https://i.imgur.com/rrg6aC2.png

Remember when there was a "consensus" that it was gonna hit SE FL or panhandle?

[pcolaman]

Really looking mean tonight. CDO is a bit ragged, but that eye is definitely starting to pop.

https://i.imgur.com/3C20byl.jpg

Land interaction and friction I would assume.

[pcolaman]

Really looking mean tonight. CDO is a bit ragged, but that eye is definitely starting to pop.

https://i.imgur.com/3C20byl.jpg

Land interaction and friction I would assume.

[AJC3]

Should note the eye we’re seeing on IR is only the eastern half. The western half is still underneath convection, so that probably accounts for the discrepancy we’re seeing between IR and radar

Just use Key West radar. It’s in range.

Even better is La Bajada, Cuba...

https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropic ... 22_lbj.gif

[Sanibel]

Land interaction and friction I would assume.

Trochoidal deformity from RI...

[chaser1]

Looking at the satellite over the past couple of hours, it seems evident that there is some drier layer of air beginning to encroach Ian's west quad. I think there's a chance that we see some dry air entrained while the storm is over W. Cuba. Two things that I can see as a result. One, that Ian will look particularly disheveled following it's Cuban foray. Two, I can see this causing a temporary relocation causing the COC to scoot a tad east of north within the deepest convection.

[Craters]

In the event that folks might be looking for free radar sites right about now, here are a few:

NOAA Aviation Radar https://aviationweather.gov/radar

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) https://weather.ral.ucar.edu/radar/

National Weather Service (NWS) https://radar.weather.gov/

Live Weather Radar https://www.livewxradar.com/

RainViewer https://www.rainviewer.com/weather-radar-map-live.html

There are certainly others, but one of these might work for you. They're all different in one way or another, but the one thing they have in common is their freeness.

[skyline385]

Looking at the satellite over the past couple of hours, it seems evident that there is some drier layer of air beginning to encroach Ian's west quad. I think there's a chance that we see some dry air entrained while the storm is over W. Cuba. Two things that I can see as a result. One, that Ian will look particularly disheveled following it's Cuban foray. Two, I can see this causing a temporary relocation causing the COC to scoot a tad east of north within the deepest convection.

Yea its kinda hard to see but there is a pretty decent sized pocket to the west.

[Hurricane Mike]

Same thing happened with Charley in 2004. The early tracks from the NHC ended up being dead-on.

[CrazyC83]

I believe the next Recon flight is from Kermit and leaves around 4 am. That will likely be right around when it is over Cuba, so it would only sample the peripheral winds.

[Meteorcane]

Gradually seeing Ian's wind fields spreading over the Florida keys and enhancing low-level shear. An obvious waterspout and potential tornado near marathon a few minutes ago. This threat is going to spread northward as Ian moves northward, and will definitely bear watching for SFL.

[AdamFirst]

Tornado warning for a hook passing over the Seven Mile Bridge in the middle Keys.

There's going to be a substantial tornado threat in this hurricane that will spread north as Tuesday goes on.

 https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/1574616878542073857

[psyclone]

I would not be surprised if there are additional eastward shifts in the track. My gut says this storm goes in south of tampa bay. But i'm no pro and can't decipher how much of that is wishful thinking.

[Poonwalker]

Its kinda funny that after all the flip-flopping by the models, the actual CONUS landfall will end up being very close to the first NHC cone.

https://i.imgur.com/rrg6aC2.png

Remember when there was a "consensus" that it was gonna hit SE FL or panhandle?

What about Mr Scrambled Eggs. Lol.

[galaxy401]

Since there's going to be no more recon passes until its landfall on Cuba, had to think the NHC will probably upgrade Ian to a Category 3 by then. That last recon pass and continued organization.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Since there's going to be no more recon passes until its landfall on Cuba, had to think the NHC will probably upgrade Ian to a Category 3 by then. That last recon pass and continued organization.

My guess is, if the IR presentation continues to improve, you're going to be exactly right.

[Owasso]

Jogged northwest in between passes

[Meteorcane]

Best satellite presentation of its lifetime right now... AdjT up to 5.7... wouldn't be surprised if they nudge it to major at 2am.

[Teban54]

Eye getting rounder every frame, cloud tops cooling to the north, and hot towers in the SW quad remains persistent. Looking the healthiest it has ever been.