ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Only good news is we can see the dry air encroaching into the Gulf.

https://imgur.com/1LPxVXr

My eyes might be playing tricks, but I see this as evidence of the trough digging further down than forecast, which would most likely turn Ian more east...and sooner

Looks like it is already down to the Florida Panhandle. Don't think it was supposed to be here yet.

[psyclone]

Ian is northbound at less than 1 degree west of my longitude. I continue to believe this storm lands south of Tampa bay.. one thing I am watching locally is whether the NHC extends hurricane warnings northward. So far they haven't...leaving the ts warning/hurricane watch combo in place north of Anclote. They have been extending warnings south though.. and for good reason. Good luck to everyone in the path of this beast.

[eastcoastFL]

Quite a bit of shear coming up

[eastcoastFL]

At which advisories does the NHC update the forecast track? I know for each advisory they update the time stamp on the track graphic, but I know certain ones are not true updates.

Which times is the forecast track actually updated?

11 and 5

[skyline385]

Only good news is we can see the dry air encroaching into the Gulf.

https://imgur.com/1LPxVXr

My eyes might be playing tricks, but I see this as evidence of the trough digging further down than forecast, which would most likely turn Ian more east...and sooner

Looks like it is already down to the Florida Panhandle. Don't think it was supposed to be here yet.

https://tropicwatch.info/trough092720220700.gif

Looks to me like it matches fine with the Euro

[TallyTracker]

The air does feel a bit cooler and drier than last night in Tallahassee. I think the trough is right over us. The chances of a Panhandle landfall appear to be diminishing though I’m still watching closely.

[aspen]

Quite a bit of shear coming up

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Ian’s path and the shear vector almost perfectly line up, so the net shear over the system will be low for the time being. Levi has mentioned in his videos that shear will increase when Ian begins feeling the effects of a high over Texas, because it’ll be imparting flow that’s in the complete opposite direction of the UL flow and its current path, which is also what causes Ian to slow down.

[wxman57]

New TVCN is farther south - Sarasota to Venice area tomorrow evening. Better for Tampa Bay.

[tolakram]

[eastcoastFL]

Ian is northbound at less than 1 degree west of my longitude. I continue to believe this storm lands south of Tampa bay.. one thing I am watching locally is whether the NHC extends hurricane warnings northward. So far they haven't...leaving the ts warning/hurricane watch combo in place north of Anclote. They have been extending warnings south though.. and for good reason. Good luck to everyone in the path of this beast.

That’s a very sharp observation. Our TS watch in Martin County recently changed to a warning.

[jhpigott]

Looks like a high risk for tornados along the SEFL coast the next 24 hours

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 1509709824

[MGC]

It was 60 beautiful degrees here on the MS coast this morning at my house. Forecast low was spot on. Was hoping Ian would loose some organization while crossing Cube, that don't appear to be the case. What concerns me is the interaction of Ian and the trough. Many times a hurricane that is moving NE in front of a trough deepens way more than forecast.....Opal and Michael to name a few. Tampa may dodge another bullet.....we shall see....MGC

[eastcoastFL]

Quite a bit of shear coming up

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Ian’s path and the shear vector almost perfectly line up, so the net shear over the system will be low for the time being. Levi has mentioned in his videos that shear will increase when Ian begins feeling the effects of a high over Texas, because it’ll be imparting flow that’s in the complete opposite direction of the UL flow and its current path, which is also what causes Ian to slow down.

Does it still feel the effects of the Texas ridge if it ends up being pulled east by the trough?

[Category5Kaiju]

For folks who are already giving Tampa the clear, I have a question to ask: wouldn't the high likelihood that Ian ends up as a much larger system than, say, Charley, make Tampa still in the danger zone even if the hurricane doesn't like make landfall over the city directly?

[skillz305]

What are the chances that the NHC puts hurricane watches for east coast central Florida at 11am? My job isn’t taking this storm seriously in St. Lucie County (boat manufacture)

[jlauderdal]

Looks like a high risk for tornados along the SEFL coast the next 24 hours

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 1509709824

The setup from the upper keys towards palm beach county is looking very good for optimizing rainfall rates into tonight, John Morales reports 3.5 storm total in Coral Gables, I am close to 2 inches of precip, and its pouring now. Noname Storm and Irene were major rain producers without the big wind headlines in our area.

[LandoWill]

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/s/85ae

For all of those who live in the Tampa/Bradenton/Sarasota area, I have found this site to quite informative
regarding storm surge impacts. It is interactive and you can zoom to neighborhood level.

Warning, it appears to project devastating impact to a broad area.

Is this the current track? Just waking up, looks similar to 11pm last night. But, I thought it was shifting south?

[Smurfwicked]

The eye is looking perfectly circular and even smaller in the last few frames of IR.

[aspen]

Ian’s extrapolated pressure has gone up another ~5mb this pass. The eye is about to move over water, so I think the pressure should stabilize around 960mb.

[jlauderdal]

What are the chances that the NHC puts hurricane watches for east coast central Florida at 11am? My job isn’t taking this storm seriously in St. Lucie County (boat manufacture)

Your chances are increasing by the hour and with that latest recon fix, we have east of north motion albeit probably short term, every mile matters, especially at this angle of approach. Also, the environment is much more conducive for hurricanes south of tampa. Key West could get scraped by the eyewall and as usual, they are ready. They aren't keen to evacuate in the keys for any storm but they know how to be prepared.