ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Rail Dawg]

I went to sleep in my truck in a parking garage in Panama City, FL the night before Hurricane Michael hit. It was a Cat 2 and when I woke up it was a Cat 5.

185mph gusts are a thing to see first-hand. Video doesn’t capture the power.

NHC is good on direction they are still learning about intensity forecasts.

Prepare for Cat 5. These things can ramp quickly.

Good luck everyone!

Chuck

[GCANE]

I went to sleep in my truck in a parking garage in Panama City, FL the night before Hurricane Michael hit. It was a Cat 2 and when I woke up it was a Cat 5.

185mph gusts are a thing to see first-hand. Video doesn’t capture the power.

NHC is good on direction they are still learning about intensity forecasts.

Prepare for Cat 5. These things can ramp quickly.

Good luck everyone!

Chuck

Good luck Chuck and stay safe. I know you will.

[LandoWill]

Anyone has the closeup view of trayectory with the line?

https://i.imgur.com/fyvdsyC.png

For those of us in tampa,st pete, and like me in land o lakes, this track is so much better. Hopefully my now complacency today doesn't end up biting me

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/Mcooqnp.gif
Amazing this NE movement, little burst of acceleration in last few frames.

Remember Irene?

Same thing, in the 24-36 window it kept creeping E from SWFL landfall to extreme southern Fl then out up just N of PBC.

[caneseddy]

Per NBC 6 in Miami, Miami-Dade cancelling all classes tomorrow and Thursday. Broward has only announced tomorrow closure.

[ronjon]

We're going to end up emptying out tampa bay rather overflowing it.

Yes indeed. Good news on the most deadly surge front for Tampa Bay and Pinellas barrier islands. Appears Venice, Englewood, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, and Ft Myers will get the brunt of surge now.

[SouthFLTropics]

https://i.imgur.com/Mcooqnp.gif
Amazing this NE movement, little burst of acceleration in last few frames.

Remember Irene?

I remember how we were told Irene would pass well to our west in the GOM, then suddenly it was headed toward the southern FL peninsula.

I remember Irene 1999 well... Had really no time for preps... she snuck in like a thief in the night and was gone by morning. Unfortunately, Ian is Irene on steroids. We're dealing with a different animal here. These western Caribbean storms are tricky.

[weeniepatrol]

[SouthFLTropics]

All St. Lucie County District Public Schools have cancelled for Wednesday and Thursday.

[Kazmit]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/hpY092E.jpg

Stadium effect incoming.

[eastcoastFL]

When you look at the NHC line on the SFWMD radar the shift east at 11am seems more pronounced

[Rail Dawg]

Good luck Chuck and stay safe. I know you will.

Gcane you’ve been a big help here over the years. It’s appreciated.

Chuck

[weeniepatrol]

Good luck Chuck and stay safe. I know you will.

Gcane you’ve been a big help here over the years. It’s appreciated.

Chuck

You chasing this one?

[eastcoastFL]

The TS wind field expanded a bit

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

[underthwx]

When you look at the NHC line on the SFWMD radar the shift east at 11am seems more pronounced


https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

I wonder what the rainfall estimates per hour are, as seen in the heavier bands, shown on this radar loop?

[Nimbus]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092022_3day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/100939_3day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

With a core that big, which will likely expand upon landfall, there’s little doubt that even if landfall is south of Tampa, that the city could unfortunately experience high winds and rain. This is not Charley 2.0. It’s much bigger.

Tampa bay area survived Irma and Ian may not be much worse for Tampa bay depending on the evolution of the track. All the shear is further NW so probably not the best outcome imaginable.

[Fancy1001]

What’s the latest SHIPS info On the odds of rapid intensification over the next 24 to 36 hours

[skyline385]

I am offically under a TS warning!

Same, still probably will have to go to work…


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[SFLcane]

When you look at the NHC line on the SFWMD radar the shift east at 11am seems more pronounced


https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Dont think its the last shift.

[Blown Away]

NHC usually doesn't make big track change jumps in one advisory, don't blame them wanting to see another few hours and model runs before committing to what we are seeing evolve.