ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nuno]

do think ts warring may be upgaade to hurrrwarring in se fl? look like strong band will get closer to dade and se coast?????

Not likely, unless the windfield dramatically expands in size.

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

Recon sampling SE quad showing stronger winds in the outer eyewall wrt to the inner eyewall

[UTSARoadrunner4]

UL WV seems to show the trof becoming cutoff south of the panhandle.

What implications would this have?

Reduce the expected shear, Modify the track.

Modify the track further up the coast? And I’m guessing the storms you mentioned earlier off the Louisiana coast is the reason for the cutoff?

[GCANE]

Highest rain rate is in the outer eyewall, near 60 mm/hr

[GCANE]

What implications would this have?

Reduce the expected shear, Modify the track.

Modify the track further up the coast? And I’m guessing the storms you mentioned earlier off the Louisiana coast is the reason for the cutoff?

Yup

[GCANE]

NE quad outer band intensifying on radar

[SapphireSea]

Reduce the expected shear, Modify the track.

Modify the track further up the coast? And I’m guessing the storms you mentioned earlier off the Louisiana coast is the reason for the cutoff?

Yup

Not really seeing this feature. But, it would seem like the main trough is digging once more and lifting out a bit faster. Could see a bit of a N jog. Looking at the storm motion I think it may slowly be wobbling back N with no E component.

[StormPyrate]

is dry air mixing in on radar?

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Reduce the expected shear, Modify the track.

Modify the track further up the coast? And I’m guessing the storms you mentioned earlier off the Louisiana coast is the reason for the cutoff?

Yup

Damn. Worst part about this is that it only takes minuscule movements to make big changes.

[GCANE]

Cell with a hook SE of Miami

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/BRENJENMX/status/1574893506258255872

[TheHurricaneGod]

Here comes a fast moving band of heavy rain. Some thunder as well. Hopefully no tornado on the way.

[underthwx]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
600 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...6 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

The Key West International Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h). A
WeatherFlow station at the Key West Coast Guard recently reported a
wind gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 83.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky

[PandaCitrus]

I think the inner eyewall may be rotating around the outer eyewall and causing distortions on radar. There is a very clear NNE track going back to the 3 hour loops.

[cheezyWXguy]

is dry air mixing in on radar?

If anything, it’s doing a pretty good job of walling it off. There was a brief weakness in the southern eyewall earlier, not seeing that anymore on radar

[Iceresistance]

FL511 has a LOT of cameras that will be useful for finding the tornadoes within the bands of Ian

LINK: https://fl511.com/

[GCANE]

STP getting dicey now

[ronjon]

Looks like the movement has become more north instead of NE. Not sure if still east of the forecast track.

It's following the NHC track. Link below is a good one to monitor the radar path with NHC track.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[NC George]

https://imgur.com/a/MFHtnz9

Just got back from moving my friend's boat here in the Pamlico Sound of NC, caught this pic of the edge of the outflow boundary from Ian overhead, this is looking S towards Ian.