ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[holmesbeach]

Friend in Bird Key on the gulf edge of Sarasota near lower Longboat Key told me this morning police told him to leave. He texted me just 10 minutes ago that "I'm still in house. fell asleep, winds now 155 mph much rain, get this thing out of here, hitting through Fort Myers." He's 86 and his wife is about the same. Pray for everyone.

[toad strangler]

Eye drop is pretty dry (49% at 850mb), but I’m not sure if that’s due to another EWRC trying to start, or because the eye is so close to land.

Honestly, I think that simply displays the reality of the more stable dryer air appearing at that broadly 850 mb layer. Whether that is some weird unexplained "2022 thing" or a direct result of dry air wrapping around and being drawn into Ian circulation from it's west, I cannot say. We've all been hearing about the predicted "Ginormous" rainfall totals as predicted by the various models (GFS seemingly the most "over-the-top"). There seems to be a significant dry slot east to northeast of center that would ordinarily favor a greater concentration of feeder bands. We'll see as Ian traverses Florida whether forecasted raindall totals actually verify. I am tending to think that the vast majority of overall population will likely experience 50% (or less?) of anticipated rainfall for their respected areas though.

All in all though, I'm very curious to see what wind, surge, and rainfall forecasts ultimately verify - relative to the very broad distanced audience that these forecasts and warnings sre intended for and actually impact.

The Eastern side of the overall circulation is definitely not the “dirty” side with this one.

[ConvergenceZone]

Ian finally showing a bit less of the deep red convection on IR. Even if not weakening it might indicate the strengthening phase has abated.

The weakening phase should start fairly quickly now, which is why they have Ian as a tropical storm as it's moving across the last part of Florida...

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1575193920300261376

[tolakram]

Aric is still live

https://www.facebook.com/102120354981427/videos/1143244346609826/

as is Jeff, on a bridge, watching a crane.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppPsqS9RRDU

[Teban54]

That last-minute intensification was absurd.
 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1575200749457313792

[HurricaneEnzo]

We are all rightfully fixated on the situation in FL, but a HU watch has just quietly gone up for part of the GA/SC coast. Ian’s second landfall could still possess minimal hurricane intensity.
https://i.ibb.co/mGs9LpC/E99-DF900-9-FA6-47-C0-9-DD6-3744641-D8840.png

The 12z UKMET had a BIG shift and brought Ian in around Myrtle Beach somewhere around Cat 2. Waiting to see what other models do.

[tolakram]

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
310 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL IN
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian made
landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida near Cayo Costa
around 305 PM EDT (1905 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum sustained winds
were estimated to be near 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum
central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 940 mb
(27.75 inches).


SUMMARY OF 310 PM EDT...1910 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 82.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.75 INCHES

[fasterdisaster]

just heard official landfall announced?

[Texas Snowman]

https://i.imgur.com/xCfnmSg.png

I’d say we have landfall…

[Teban54]

W eyewall: 111 kt FL, 120 kt SFMR, extrap 937.9mb.

Clearly weakened due to land interaction, considering this was where the strongest winds (160 kt FL) were measured before landfall. I wonder what if they went into the W eyewall on the first pass, but it's understandable they might have avoided it due to safety concerns.

[dpep4]

So official landfall at Cayo Costa, just like with Charley.

[putnam6]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/VvM4L4cM/78-A1-D3-FC-FA92-4855-992-B-687-BD833-FD00.jpg [/url]

Ian drifting E of the track.

It's gonna take a while to traverse the peninsula, which obviously isn't good.

[Teban54]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
310 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL IN
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian made
landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida near Cayo Costa
around 305 PM EDT (1905 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum sustained winds
were estimated to be near 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum
central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 940 mb
(27.75 inches).


SUMMARY OF 310 PM EDT...1910 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 82.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.75 INCHES

Lowering landfall intensity to 130 kts makes sense based on recon data.

This also makes 2022 the 3rd consecutive year with a 130 kt landfall on the US Gulf Coast.

[CrazyC83]

Personally I think Ian peaked at 140 kts around 8 am this morning. The CDO started to warm after that. I think a little weakening occurred if you can call it that at these intensities. I agree with CrazyC83’s assessment of 130 kts at landfall as being reasonable.

Regardless the surge, rain, and wind impacts will be identical as 10 mph make little difference when at Cat 4 and higher strength.

It's borderline. I'll take a look later at the aircraft data, since I was largely asleep (but woke up for that update).

[tolakram]

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1575203083617210368

[CrazyC83]

W eyewall: 111 kt FL, 120 kt SFMR, extrap 937.9mb.

Clearly weakened due to land interaction, considering this was where the strongest winds (160 kt FL) were measured before landfall. I wonder what if they went into the W eyewall on the first pass, but it's understandable they might have avoided it due to safety concerns.

That's the back side of the storm. There may have been a bit of land interaction, but the last passes supported about 130 kt.

[holmesbeach]

May I share a moment of levity in this most serious, reality event now threatening so many people. Bless everyone gets through this and we still have a state of Florida after this catastrophe... https://mrbiofile.com/2020/12/07/biofil ... interview/