Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
06N to 12N between 51W and 60W. Recent ASCAT data show strong
winds from 12N-15N between 55W-58W. Seas with this system are
likely as high as 8 to 9 ft currently. The system continues to
show signs of organization, and it will likely become a tropical
depression within the next couple of days. The disturbance is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward
Islands today and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later
this week. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely
monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are affecting these islands. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern Venezuela,
northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later this week.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 65W/66W, from 18N
southward to southern Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated
showers are within 60 nm either side of the wave axis south of
13N.