ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be heading due east, probably ENE on radar. Needs to turn north now or very soon to hit Charleston on the recurve. I'm thinking NC/SC border. Probably why GFS shifted so far east. Interested to see if Euro follows suit.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap? ... te=1&hur=1

It could give it more time to intensify too, even though conditions are marginal.

[hipshot]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

I am so, so sorry.

Most of us are strangers here, I know, but I feel like many of us have gotten to know each other over the years and become what I call “annual friends”. You are one of those folks and I am genuinely sorry, my friend.

I want to second this...I don't think I could say it better than Evenstar. So sorry

Add me to the list as well. I only lived in Florida for 10 months in the late 70's and never had to go through one of those. I am so sorry.

[CrazyC83]

Our deepest prayers and condolences are with you Sanibel.

I have never had to go through a situation like that and can't imagine what you are going through. We are all heartbroken.

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/xlw1-m2_bzA[/youtube]

[sicktght311]

The Sanibel Causeway is a goner, found this photo from a different forum.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Sanibel-Causeway-Storm-Surge-Damage.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Sanibel-Causeway-Storm-Surge-Damage.png

For reference

[galaxy401]

Looks like the death toll is unfortunately going to be very high...Already 6 deaths reported and it sounds like it will be much higher. One sheriff said potentially in the "hundreds". It hits even more when some of our users know someone who has died in the storm. Completely tragic news to hear Sanibel and I'm very sorry for your loss.

[aspen]

Ian’s landfall and trough interaction have massively expanded its wind field. The longest axis is 510 nautical miles (~587 miles) across; only Earl had a larger wind field this year, and unfortunately it’s right next to land instead of out in the open ocean.

[hurricaneCW]

Horrific learning about Sanibel's loss...may she RIP...always remember that there's a tragedy for someone at the end of these storms.

I think the flooding/surge risk for the Carolinas will be significant just due to the size of this system. I don't see any strong core so intensity will be capped to low Cat 1 but don't let that fool you.

As we saw with Fiona, a Cat 1 or even a tropical storm can inflict a lot of damage. I just hope folks in the Carolinas are paying attention and not letting their guard down.

[Meteorcane]

One thing I think this event (and many others over the last few years) highlights is that the overwhelming focus on the cone by political officials, emergency managers, and the media needs to stop. In many ways I think the NHC wishes they had not started the cone graphic nearly 2 decades ago, because it is a fairly poor messaging device (since it only focuses on the center track and has a static width based on historical error rather than a dynamic width based on the uncertainty surrounding a particular storm) and has become so popular they can't simply discontinue it. To highlight this fact, portions of Collier county which received significant storm surge were not in the cone for most of the event. A lot of people would chalk this up to track error... but even with a perfect forecast some of these areas (particularly like Marco Island/Everglades city) STILL wouldn't have been in the cone for at least the last few days of the event really highlighting the point that impacts can extend well away from the cone.

This problem is only going to get worse because NHC track forecasts keep improving, this means that in future years the cone width will continue to shrink and consequently it becomes statistically more likely to see significant impacts outside the cone. Now the NWS is aware of the cone's limitations for hazard messaging and has been producing probabilistically based Hurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI) graphics for a few years now which actually give emergency managers/public officials and idea of the "reasonable worst case scenario" (which is what you should plan for). I wish these would get more traction than the cone... or to be honest even the traditional watches and warnings.

Here is an example from early Tuesday morning when the center of the cone was still focused towards Tampa... the surge HTI graphic actually depicts the surge threat quite well, yet only looking at the cone from that advisory you wouldn't be too worried in Collier.

[Hurricane Mike]

I am deeply sorry for your loss, Sanibel.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://twitter.com/swmurfl/status/1575498520370376704?s=20&t=vjaLm0ZwYewwRIE62iWQdw



https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1575480232798453761?s=20&t=vjaLm0ZwYewwRIE62iWQdw

My parents got word last night from a friend of a friend (I don't know how reliable, but my mother is trying to hold out hope their house they are renting is still there so I'm not arguing) that their house didn't get flooded but there was "some" damage. The house is about 1.5 miles from the inlet, so I don't know how bad it is. It is on the north end of Bonita Springs at Pelican Landing.
Now I have to worry about my sister in Charleston. I am very ready for Ian to go away.

I hear you. I hope that friend is right. Please update us when you find out for sure.

There was not much water in Pelican Landing but there is some wind damage that is widespread. The Colony which is next to it looks to be flooded. I have been watching the NBC2 livestream and they flew over The Colony. The Sanibel Causeway looks like it has been damaged heavily in 4 different places.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Not much left of Ft Myers Beach

[youtube]https://youtu.be/TdQShwOfWSA[/youtube]

[CronkPSU]

not sure how to make that image like others do but Ian is waaaaaayyyyy off course to the east right now, though we would miss a lot of the rain as it pulled north but nah, now that back edge is coming right over us in East Orlando

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[ScottNAtlanta]

You can definitely see the center offshore. Looks like it is moving due east

[decgirl66]

I'm so very sorry for your loss Sanibel. My dad passed yesterday as well. My heart and prayers go out to you.

[dpep4]

If you want to switch to actual news and live coverage, here's a SW FL tv station:

https://nbc-2.com/

Lots of pics and vids, including from a chopper.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1575528580288610305



NHC forecast for the FL landfall point did well when Ian just formed, but above-average errors started with <=96 hrs left until about 36 hours before landfall.

And that's still the best forecast skill that exists today.

[SCHawkFan]

The surge forecast for Charleston, SC, has been raised to 4-7 feet. That area floods during elevated high tides. Going to be significant if that comes to fruition.

Yeah, this may be a very serious event from Charleston to Wilmington and not too many people are paying attention.

Not true. We are paying attention. My painters are working like crazy to get our small job done today.

[underthwx]

I'm so very sorry for your loss Sanibel. My dad passed yesterday as well. My heart and prayers go out to you.

God bless, I offer my thoughts and condolences to you and your family as well, truly sad to hear of your loss...

[bcargile]

The surge forecast for Charleston, SC, has been raised to 4-7 feet. That area floods during elevated high tides. Going to be significant if that comes to fruition.

Yeah, this may be a very serious event from Charleston to Wilmington and not too many people are paying attention.

Not true. We are paying attention. My painters are working like crazy to get our small job done today.

We’re paying close attention in eastern NC…