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Sanibel wrote:Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...
My mother died during Ian in the storm...
typhoonty wrote:I've always been interested in weather, but Charley made this my lifelong passion. We had to evacuate our house just NE of Sanibel Island with hurricane force gusts present. I wanted to learn all I could to prevent that harrowing experience from happening again to everyone.
And now I'm here, 18 years later, with seemingly the same situation. However, Ian is MUCH more dangerous due to it's size. And today I saw meteorologists that we were "all good" because Fort Myers is (still) out of the cone. It makes me sick to my stomach. I've always had a landfall point north of Fort Myers and south of Cedar Key.
The cone needs to change, we can try and explain what it actually means until we're blue in the face. People still think the cone means danger and outside of the cone means no danger. So we need to widen the cone by increasing the % chance that the center is in the cone or do dynamic cone sizes.
This morning, Orange Beach Alabama was in the cone, and Fort Myers wasn't. And exactly 0 degreed meteorologists would be able to come up with a reason that anywhere in Alabama had a higher threat level than Fort Myers.
I just hope the panic level I see tomorrow in Fort Myers doesn't give me PTSD.
/rant
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Ian is reorganizing quickly. The LLC is moving near deeper convection, radar is showing stronger winds, and it is spending more time over water than most thought it would. We could see a potential cat 2 landfall if Ian reorganizes fast enough. Dare I even say Cat 3 still is a possibility.
Sanibel wrote:Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...
My mother died during Ian in the storm...
Category5Kaiju wrote:With what looks to be a decently strong hurricane hitting on the Carolinas, I think it's safe to say that once everything is done, Ian will likely be a "top tier" hurricane in the minds of the vast majority of wx tropical folks. What an absolute monster. This is among one the worst hurricanes I have ever tracked.
LARanger wrote:Hammy wrote:Model data has been available to the public since at least 1999 because I was using it on various public sites that far back.
Thank you. I vividly recall obsessing over models for Katrina (2005), and have a much more vague recollection of something like spaghetti (but with few strands compared to today) possibly being on TV for Georges (1998).
The SFWMD's plot design certainly resembles something from the early-to-mid 1990s, though it appears they were using the basic style for rendering NHC text output before they began plotting model outputs on it. The earliest *model* plot I can find is 2002, with NHC plots going back to circa 1998.
It's possible these were distributed via other electronic means prior to that . . . e.g. a listserv . . . but I probably just lost half the audience or more by referring to things being distributed by "electronic" techniques other than the web.
https://web.archive.org/web/20021225164 ... plots.html
Category5Kaiju wrote:With what looks to be a decently strong hurricane hitting on the Carolinas, I think it's safe to say that once everything is done, Ian will likely be a "top tier" hurricane in the minds of the vast majority of wx tropical folks. What an absolute monster. This is among one the worst hurricanes I have ever tracked.
FLLurker32 wrote:Getting some pretty decent gusts on the very southern end of Marion county. I’m only a mile north of Lake and Sumter counties. It’s been raining all day, sometimes a drizzle sometimes heavy. More interestingly, there’s been a lot of lightening and it’s very cool here. Around 70 degrees. After such a hot summer I need a jacket just to tolerate the cold wind. I said it earlier but it’s worth repeating - what an odd mix of a tropical storm winds with fall weather. Can’t remember one quite like this in nearly 40 yrs.
FLLurker32 wrote:LARanger wrote:Hammy wrote:Model data has been available to the public since at least 1999 because I was using it on various public sites that far back.
Thank you. I vividly recall obsessing over models for Katrina (2005), and have a much more vague recollection of something like spaghetti (but with few strands compared to today) possibly being on TV for Georges (1998).
The SFWMD's plot design certainly resembles something from the early-to-mid 1990s, though it appears they were using the basic style for rendering NHC text output before they began plotting model outputs on it. The earliest *model* plot I can find is 2002, with NHC plots going back to circa 1998.
It's possible these were distributed via other electronic means prior to that . . . e.g. a listserv . . . but I probably just lost half the audience or more by referring to things being distributed by "electronic" techniques other than the web.
https://web.archive.org/web/20021225164 ... plots.html
My comment said that the models were not broadly shared, and they weren’t. You had to seek them out and if you did so it was typically because you knew something about them. Today, they’re too broadly shared and available to the masses that do not know and do not care to know what they mean and are intended for. This is just one of the many areas of science currently impacted by the rise of social media. I think many Mets have taken the approach of trying to teach the masses to offset the effects of it, but it doesn’t seem to be working.
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