Texas Fall 2022

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#401 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:35 pm

bubba hotep wrote:https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0551_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
730 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and central Oklahoma

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 730 PM
until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
through the remainder of this evening and move southeast with a risk
for large hail and damaging gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of
Clinton OK to 85 miles east southeast of Oklahoma City OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 550...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.

...Bunting

Yep, I'm under the watch.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#402 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:03 pm

We fried at the state fair today. Ugh.

The next few days are great though!
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#403 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 15, 2022 10:18 pm

DFW was 94F today one degree shy of the record 95F. The next several days of cold air will feel great!

Later in the forecast is creeping up to low 80s which at that point is above normal.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#404 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2022 11:43 pm

I just heard thunder for the first time in I don't remember :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#405 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:02 am

Freeze Watch for Tulsa, could get as low as 26°F.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#406 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Oct 16, 2022 7:32 am

NAM and RGEM showing a fairly widespread freeze Wed morning. Non urban areas areas could see 20s.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#407 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Oct 16, 2022 9:04 am

Rain is very light today. Almost nothing on radar.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#408 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun Oct 16, 2022 9:09 am

rwfromkansas wrote:Rain is very light today. Almost nothing on radar.


Must have gotten lucky here. .62" recorded as of just now.

Fall is here, at least until the end of the week.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#409 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 16, 2022 10:25 am

Not to downplay the sharp cooldown, Tuesday morning DFW's current forecast is upper 30s. 38 is the record low for the 18th.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#410 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Oct 16, 2022 2:28 pm

Pretty massive forecast and model bust for DFW. FWD went 100% coverage for today with totals ranging from 1-2" and this was supported by the models. It looks like most areas of the metroplex will end up below 0.25"...

And it looks like it will be another 7-10 days of dry weather with temps warming back into the 80s.

On the bright side, it looks like there were solid totals up in Oklahoma and down along the Red River and there should be widespread rain later today and into tonight from SW into Central and South Texas.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#411 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2022 2:49 pm

Tulsa NWS is mentioning both record lows and record highs possible this week dont y'all love La Nina :spam:

Some places will likely see their
coldest temperatures ever recorded for so early in the season
during this upcoming cold snap. Not only will record lows fall,
but afternoon high temperatures will be near record cool maxes
despite full sunshine Tuesday.

Record or near record heat will be possible in some places
from Friday through next Sunday.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#412 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 16, 2022 3:19 pm

Got .8 inches from last night.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#413 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:23 pm

We had anywhere from 1.08 inches up to 1.75 inches of rainfall here in my part of Grayson County. Sorry y’all didn’t get much down in the Metroplex.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#414 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:36 pm

Possible earliest freeze on record for Tyler Wed morning. Possible to threaten low max records Tue and not super far from record highs by Sat.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#415 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:44 pm

Lowest Forecasts for the possible Freeze next week (All on Tuesday Morning)

OKC
KFOR: 33°F
KWTV: 32°F
KOCO: 37°F
FOX 25: 34°F
NWS: 32°F

Tulsa
KJRH: 25°F
KOTV: 29°F
KTUL: 29°F
FOX 23: 30°F
NWS: 32°F
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#416 Postby cstrunk » Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:59 pm

0.88" of rain today!! :flag:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#417 Postby SnowintheFalls » Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:55 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Lowest Forecasts for the possible Freeze next week (All on Tuesday Morning)

OKC
KFOR: 33°F
KWTV: 32°F
KOCO: 37°F
FOX 25: 34°F
NWS: 32°F

Tulsa
KJRH: 25°F
KOTV: 29°F
KTUL: 29°F
FOX 23: 30°F
NWS: 32°F


Is there a possibility of a freeze in N Texas?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#418 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 16, 2022 7:00 pm

SnowintheFalls wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Lowest Forecasts for the possible Freeze next week (All on Tuesday Morning)

OKC
KFOR: 33°F
KWTV: 32°F
KOCO: 37°F
FOX 25: 34°F
NWS: 32°F

Tulsa
KJRH: 25°F
KOTV: 29°F
KTUL: 29°F
FOX 23: 30°F
NWS: 32°F


Is there a possibility of a freeze in N Texas?


Yes, but it's not very high.

NWS-Norman has Wichita Falls at 28% for a freeze on Wednesday Morning
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#419 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Oct 16, 2022 9:43 pm

Chatter is starting to increase about the prospects for severe weather in the southern plains and deep south next week
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#420 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2022 11:09 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Chatter is starting to increase about the prospects for severe weather in the southern plains and deep south next week


Hopefully at least more widespread rain but this pattern that's been hard to get

Meanwhile I'm in the 50s already with a freeze watch tomorrow night and it won't be much warmer the next 3 days. For mid October this front is ridiculous
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