LarryWx wrote:WiscoWx02 wrote:06Z GFS pulling a wrong way Lenny in the Caribbean end of the month…gotta love the GFS sometimes.
The details of this run are really unrealistic with two TCs, including a ridiculous monster and a tiny TS that both rapidly develop seemingly out of thin air, that hit the Virgin Islands just 3 days apart.
Although these are quite possibly all just ghosts especially since there's little support from other models (though I haven't seen a Euro in 24 hours) and the GFS likes to produce ghosts often, this is the third GFS run in a row with Caribbean TCG as well as an impactful storm next week fwiw. Also, 11 of the last 13 Niña seasons, the last nine Niña seasons, and 2/3 of La Niña seasons since 1964 have had an impactful TC either during late OCT or in NOV.
1. 12Z GFS is 4th in a row that has TCG S of Hispaniola mid next week fwiw. This is also the 3rd of the last 4 with a flooding threat from heavy rainfall for that island as it comes in there as a hurricane.
2. The 12Z UKMET has weak TCG Sunday morning 200 miles off the SE US and it then moves slowly to just off NC as of 144:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 31.5N 75.7W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.10.2022 96 31.5N 75.5W 1008 32
0000UTC 24.10.2022 108 32.2N 74.3W 1010 34
1200UTC 24.10.2022 120 33.9N 73.6W 1012 29
0000UTC 25.10.2022 132 35.5N 73.8W 1011 28
1200UTC 25.10.2022 144 35.9N 74.5W 1011 20