Texas Fall 2022

[SoupBone]

So after today and tomorrow, when's the next cold front coming?

[cycloneye]

The remanants from now 90E in EPAC but a TC later, may get into Texas next week.

[Ntxw]

So after today and tomorrow, when's the next cold front coming?

Middle of next week though not to the magnitude of the the past couple of days.

[bubba hotep]

The remanants from now 90E in EPAC but a TC later, may get into Texas next week.

https://i.imgur.com/h5u54xc.gif

That 18z run produced some nice totals

[Iceresistance]

I've been looking at the CFS model for the past several runs and it's suggesting that Mid to Late (I assume) November may be active with storm systems and maybe rain or snow with possible cold shots (12z CFS has a big one ready to fire towards us at the very end of the run). It's extremely far out, but something to keep an eye on in the future.

[cstrunk]

The WPC isn't as impressed with the early week system and has lowered rainfall totals to 0.5"-1". The last few runs of the GFS still show my area receiving around 1.5". Just hoping for at least a half an inch.

[bubba hotep]

The WPC isn't as impressed with the early week system and has lowered rainfall totals to 0.5"-1". The last few runs of the GFS still show my area receiving around 1.5". Just hoping for at least a half an inch.

It's a tricky forecast for sure. Look at this H5 map!

[Iceresistance]

Where is the question

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1583090938926493696

[Iceresistance]

The WPC isn't as impressed with the early week system and has lowered rainfall totals to 0.5"-1". The last few runs of the GFS still show my area receiving around 1.5". Just hoping for at least a half an inch.

It's a tricky forecast for sure. Look at this H5 map!

All of these must combine together at the perfect timing for the most rainfall for the Southern Plains

[Ntxw]

The WPC isn't as impressed with the early week system and has lowered rainfall totals to 0.5"-1". The last few runs of the GFS still show my area receiving around 1.5". Just hoping for at least a half an inch.

It's a tricky forecast for sure. Look at this H5 map!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/6z-Euro-for-this-weekend.png

All of these must combine together at the perfect timing for the most rainfall for the Southern Plains

In a better Pacific mode year this would be a flooding pattern, with the EPAC system and carved trof. However in 2022 there is little support from the equatorial Pacific. A quick line of storms then slow, cloudy, dreary light rain we might get up to 1" fingers crossed it overperforms!

FYI through almost 2/3rds of October and DFW is +1F and 0.07" for the month.

[bubba hotep]

Overall, drought conditions continue to improve but Central Texas is still getting hit hard with drought.

[Iceresistance]

It's a tricky forecast for sure. Look at this H5 map!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/6z-Euro-for-this-weekend.png

All of these must combine together at the perfect timing for the most rainfall for the Southern Plains

In a better Pacific mode year this would be a flooding pattern, with the EPAC system and carved trof. However in 2022 there is little support from the equatorial Pacific. A quick line of storms then slow, cloudy, dreary light rain we might get up to 1" fingers crossed it overperforms!

FYI through almost 2/3rds of October and DFW is +1F and 0.07" for the month.

Just checked the PWAT values on the GFS and CMC, the PWAT is 1-2 inches for most of Texas, but there is not much lift for the training effect of the storms for the GFS despite a secondary system with the SoCal Trough that moves over Texas later on. The CMC is currently our only hope for a heavy rainfall event for Central and Southern Plains.

[Ntxw]

All of these must combine together at the perfect timing for the most rainfall for the Southern Plains

In a better Pacific mode year this would be a flooding pattern, with the EPAC system and carved trof. However in 2022 there is little support from the equatorial Pacific. A quick line of storms then slow, cloudy, dreary light rain we might get up to 1" fingers crossed it overperforms!

FYI through almost 2/3rds of October and DFW is +1F and 0.07" for the month.

Just checked the PWAT values on the GFS and CMC, the PWAT is 1-2 inches for most of Texas, but there is not much lift for the training effect of the storms for the GFS despite a secondary system with the SoCal Trough that moves over Texas later on. The CMC is currently our only hope for a heavy rainfall event for Central and Southern Plains.

I think there will be plenty of lift, that 5h look Bubba posted is a great upper pattern. We just don't yet have that rich, deep moisture influx from the lower latitudes/levels.

[Iceresistance]

In a better Pacific mode year this would be a flooding pattern, with the EPAC system and carved trof. However in 2022 there is little support from the equatorial Pacific. A quick line of storms then slow, cloudy, dreary light rain we might get up to 1" fingers crossed it overperforms!

FYI through almost 2/3rds of October and DFW is +1F and 0.07" for the month.

Just checked the PWAT values on the GFS and CMC, the PWAT is 1-2 inches for most of Texas, but there is not much lift for the training effect of the storms for the GFS despite a secondary system with the SoCal Trough that moves over Texas later on. The CMC is currently our only hope for a heavy rainfall event for Central and Southern Plains.

I think there will be plenty of lift, that 5h look Bubba posted is a great upper pattern. We just don't yet have that rich, deep moisture influx from the lower latitudes/levels.

Stupid Cockroach Death Ridge! It literally sucked out the moisture and left us dry! The Gulf of Mexico is about as dry as it can get with a front that is refusing to leave the area.

The SOI index is now mocking us with a sub-positive reading of +1.61 on the daily SOI.

[TropicalTundra]

The last time I can remember an actual storm with potential flooding was back in April. The few days of rain in early September was really good but most of it was light rain or drizzle. I only got about .1 in the gauge a few nights ago. Grass has been dying since May. Not liking having to get out the hose every night. Ugh.

[bubba hotep]

If this was during Jan/Feb, we would be talking about a Southern Plains winter storm.



Also, no folding to the Euro on this run.

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC and ICON still look good, ICON has a 6-inch swath from Northern Texas to Eastern Oklahoma. CMC is still the same as 0z and yesterday's 12z.

[bubba hotep]

Just a slight change on the 12z Euro vs. 00z lol

00z



12z

[EnnisTx]

Just a slight change on the 12z Euro vs. 00z lol

00z

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022102000/162/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

12z

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022102012/150/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

I prefer the later, not much difference out your way

[Iceresistance]

Just a slight change on the 12z Euro vs. 00z lol

00z

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022102000/162/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

12z

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022102012/150/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Maybe the Euro folded to the GFS after all! Lol