Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[GCANE]

Wave SE of PR showing constant firing convection and increasing LL vorticity on CIMSS.
Driven by a strong shear gradient.
Majority of the convection is in a dropping shear area.
GFS initialization is not capturing this.

[GCANE]

UL Trough is currently north of Hispaniola.
Forecast to dissipate by Sunday.
Will set up a low shear environment across the Carib then.
GFS showing a LL vort developing south of Hispaniola at that time.

[Blown Away]

UL Trough is currently north of Hispaniola.
Forecast to dissipate by Sunday.
Will set up a low shear environment across the Carib then.
GFS showing a LL vort developing south of Hispaniola at that time.

I see that, you are pretty good and consistent at picking up on this type of pattern over the years. A few of the ensembles continue to show a very powerful hurricane bouncing around in the Caribbean and then getting pulled out into W Atlantic.

[Blown Away]

00z CMC

[cycloneye]

Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward for several
hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 95L is up